Best Skiing Of Winter On The Way

Take a look at our forecast for snow and snow levels on Mt. Hood for the next week:

MarkSnow_MtHoodFcst_2013

This is the snowiest forecast I’ve made so far this winter…funny that it took until the 2nd half of February to finally do it.  Well, I guess it’s not funny if you are s ski resort operator, but you know what I mean.  It should be obvious that out of the 3 day weekend Saturday is not the best day to ski.  That’s because we’ll see the first of two storms this weekend; and it’ll be a relatively warm storm with snow levels rising up closer to 6,000′ in the afternoon.  But don’t fret, the snow level will dip down around 2,000′ by Sunday morning as the cold front moves through.  So there should be a nice dumping of new snow on the ground Sunday morning with temps way down in the 20s.

Then on Sunday it should be mostly dry through midday to early afternoon…very nice ski conditions.

Sunday evening a much wetter and cooler storm arrives.  This one should be all snow in the mountains.  At this point I’m thinking we could see 15-20″ between Sunday evening and Monday evening!  It’s going to be a crazy Presidents Day on the mountain!  Beyond that, one more organized system later Tuesday and Wednesday, then much colder powder snow Thursday and some leftovers Friday.  So it’s very likely we’ll see 3-6′ of new snow in the Cascades between right now and when it dries out at the end of next week.  And a good chunk of that will fall with temps in the 20s…very good!  Best days next week will be Wednesday-Friday with the colder temps and not such intense snowfall.

For those of us in the lowlands, we’ve got the Saturday storm and the late Sunday storm on the way.  Tomorrow’s won’t give much wind to the valleys; and for the first part of it the flow is far too “southeasterly” to get good wind into the valley anyway.  Still, lots of rain with this one.

Then the Sunday night storm appears to be much more impressive.  The 00z models are a little weaker with the wind field and pressure gradient, so I’m thinking gusts around 70 mph at the beaches and 40-45 mph here in the valleys.  Neither is generally a damaging wind for either location, but a very wet and windy night!  In fact the rain looks quite intense for a few hours as the cold front passes from the northwest to the southeast across the area.  Looks like the type of setup that will give us localized urban flooding later Sunday night or for the Monday morning commute.

Snow levels look to be somewhere in the surface to 1,000′ level late next week.  Don’t get too excited, it’s going to be one of those “snow in the barkdust” setups where we see areas of patchy snow in the morning then it’s in the low-mid 40s in the afternoon.  At least right now it’s looking that way.  Plus the bar was set pretty high one week ago when we had 3 different snow storms!

Have a good weekend and enjoy the wind/rain.  I’m working tomorrow…it’ll be Day 14 due to Superbowl, snow, and a day to cover this weekend.  Finally a day off Sunday, so I will only blog if Sunday’s storm looks stronger.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

115 Responses to Best Skiing Of Winter On The Way

  1. BoringOregon says:

    Sever Weather for next week. For the mid west!

  2. pappoose in scappoose says:

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    213 PM PST MON FEB 17 2014

    …WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM PST TUESDAY FOR THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREA AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM PST TUESDAY.

    WINDS: SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THERE WILL BE A BURST OF GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AROUND NOON.
    TIMING: LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND NOON.
    LOCATIONS INCLUDE: EUGENE…CORVALLIS…ALBANY…SALEM…
    MCMINNVILLE…HILLSBORO…PORTLAND…OREGON CITY…GRESHAM…TROUTDALE…VANCOUVER…BATTLE GROUND…CAMAS…WASHOUGAL

  3. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    Congratulations Portland, on your first wet February since 2011 (and that was a last day 1.5+ inch of rainfall fluke, the rest of the month was abnormally dry) and only the 3rd “wet” February since 2000. The other years were 2000 itself (4.5″/4.32″) and 2011 (4.29″/4.18″ with 1.66″ falling on the last day of the month.)

    With the 1.14″ of rain we’ve had today (as of the 12:53pm update) that puts our monthly total to 4.00″, our average now is a paltry 3.66″ of rain (March, on average, now sees more rain than February with an average of 3.68″) making it the wettest February, percentage wise, since before 2000.

    If we can get a bit of mixed in snow at the very least (I’d like to see a solid flurry or two) this week, as well as plenty of snow for the Cascades… Then bump into the 60s for the end of the month (not really a death ridge in my opinion, unless it doesn’t go away and creates the soupy fog conditions) then I’ll call this the best February we’ve had in a very long time.

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    What a wild weather weekend. Wind gusts to around 50 MPH, heavy downpours, and heavy mountain snow. Something for everyone. Now next week it looks like we might have some very nice late Winter weather with temps up around 60 or so. Yes the ridge is back for awhile. But this time with some sun and warmth. The sun angle is high enough for warmer weather now. Soon the baseballs will be in play and barbeques will be smokin’. Had very heavy winds last night and half an inch of rain in two hours this morning around 6 AM. Sunny and 54 now. Peace

  5. Sapo says:

    Hailing in Tigard! Now it stopped.

  6. W7ENK says:

    I wish I could afford to go…

    • W7ENK says:

      Up to the mountain to ski, in response to the OP’s title. Having just caught up on all the comments, I realized how badly out of context my random interjection may have seemed.

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Haa, Erik! I figured that’s what you meant. But, you’re right, it was sort of random.

      Skiing/snowboarding is VERY expensive — lift tickets, skis, boots, snow clothes, gas … I never could really afford it. The times I tried to be a snow bunny were lessons in humiliation — couldn’t make it to the lift without sliding backwards, couldn’t walk in those boots, face-planted immediately after getting off of the one lift I managed to get on … Got snowboarding lessons in St. Moritz once. The instructor had to help me down the hill. Epic fail. Now if we go to Timberline, I just sit fireside — that’s free!

  7. Paul D says:

    We have a weather station where I work (near 198th & TV Hwy) and since midnight we’ve had 0.96″ – 0.2″ of that in the last hour.

  8. Sapo says:

    The 6z GFS definitely makes it clear sticking snow won’t happen below 1,000 feet or so next week. After that, though, looks like we are entering a dry and warm period.

    • David B. says:

      “After that, though, looks like we are entering a dry and warm period.”

      Bah, humbug! There’s already been more than enough r-dg-ing for one winter. More storms, please!

  9. prairiedog says:

    Drove my daughter to work this morning. Was on I-205/I-5 Southbound towards Willsonville at 6am. It was raining and blowing so much and with the water on the hi way, I was hydroplaning and visibility at times was almost zero. It was truly a tough drive. Wild and tense drive with people driving way too fast. Always amazed at the rudeness of people even in adverse driving conditions.

    • Paul D says:

      I too am amazed at how crazy some people drive in bad weather. They must think they are invincible. A few months ago I was on I-5 heading to Seattle and it was raining buckets. I was in the right lane doing 55 and watching people fly past me in the other lanes (yes, the speed limit is 70, but in pouring rain?). I was hoping they would get past me and not end up hydroplaning and taking me out with them. Very scary.

    • Mikel says:

      I’m one that feels as you do. I’m amazed because they seem to let so much hate take over their driving. Make bad drivers go back to horses and buckboard. That give them the message how priveleged we are today.

      One tree down so far at my place. I’ll report back if there’s more.

    • WhiteEagle - Garden Home / SW Portland says:

      I was on the road around then…about 5:15am…and it certainly was a “white knuckle” drive. Agreed about the other drivers. On I-84, I was getting passed like crazy…going 60mph. One cabbie in a green Prius must have been going 85…no exaggeration. One of those green Prius cabbies also tailgated me extremely close last week because I was only doing 40mph in a snowstorm. I’m on the verge of calling that company or reporting them…one or the other.!

    • Dave in South Salem (500') says:

      If you don’t have the right tires/abilities for the conditions please out of the left lane. Some think the bad drivers are the ones going 45 because its raining.

  10. JJ78259 says:

    82 today and high of 75 thru the rest of the week in San Antonio trees are flowering

  11. pdx gal says:

    I am in close in NE Portland and was woken up by some sort of crash or explosion that was most likely an electrical transformer. I also could swear that I heard a bit of thunder but that was most likely wishful thinking on my part. our power has flashed out about 4-5 times but has come back on after a moment. I wish I could fall back asleep but the noises from the storm are really spooking me. the wind is just thunderous and rattles window,doors and everything else.

  12. schmit44 says:

    2/16/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:58 at PROVOLT SEED ORC(1180 ft)
    Low: 48 at Gold Beach (US 1(60 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:23 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 15 at HOWARD Mt Howard (8150 ft ) & Mount Hood Meado (6601 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 26 degrees
    PROVOLT SEED ORC (58/32 ) (1180 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.51″ at TIDEWATER(2035ft)
    1.10″ at LITTLE MEADOWS(4000ft)
    1.05″ at SOUTH FORK(2257ft)
    1.01″ at DW0237 Lees Camp(699ft)
    0.83″ at CEDAR(2220ft)

  13. Ron says:

    Wind ABRUPTLY went slack in Astoria about five minutes ago.

  14. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    Nearly 7000 people in Clackamas County without power; mostly in Lake Oswego and Milwaukie. So it must have been transformers blowing that I saw since that’s the direction I saw the flashes.

    Multnomah County had upwards of 3500 power without power earlier.

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