Freezing Rain Threat Ends; Temperatures Warming

9:30am Monday…

It seems like all 4 of the weather systems that have moved through our area the past week have been ahead of schedule.  That happened this morning too.  Rain arrived around 7-8am.  Luckily, clouds had moved in and temperatures warmed a bit during the night.  Portland was up to 32-33 once the rain arrived, keeping new ice accumulation to a minimum.

Now the best news:

Road temperatures have warmed enough that any ice accumulation is done…it’s back to normal rain

Air temperatures are mainly 32-33 degrees and heading uphill slowly

The last of the Gorge wind (our open freezer door) is dying down

Southerly pressure gradient in the valley is increasing, about 5 millibars from Eugene to Olympia.  That means fresh (milder) air is moving in and out of the western valleys.  I notice Kelso has seen a gusty SE wind all morning keeping those temps above freezing.  Eventually south wind will develop between Salem and Portland too.

The freezing rain threat is pretty much finished now in the metro area, it’ll be confined to the Columbia River Gorge the rest of the day.  And after a few more hours it’ll only be east of Multnomah Falls

i205strk_pid543

Check out the latest road surface temps:

  • I205/Division:  34
  • Canemah/Oregon City:  37
  • Hwy 26/Sunset Transit Center:  37
  • RockyPt. US 30:  37

All of those were at or below freezing a few hours ago…the melt is finally on!  And today it’ll be much faster than yesterday.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

 

 

73 Responses to Freezing Rain Threat Ends; Temperatures Warming

  1. Jason Hougak says:

    Next week still holding for cold air intrusion… doesn’t look arctic cold but still snowy with jet streaming out of Alaska. http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/gfsx-300-forecast.htm

  2. Austin-East Vancouver says:

    So got this warm south wind time to hit up the river and go for a swim….anyone else in?:)

  3. MasterNate says:

    I don’t really see valley snow in the future, but a lot of cascade make up snow and for sure down to lower elevations 10 days out. The models really spell great news for our snowpack. Hopefully California can get in on the action. Grapes are already to expensive.

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    Hey Mark post up on the arctic reload III. GFS has 850mb temps. in the -8C range with surface temps. at freezing. Jet stream alignment straight down from Alaska keeping up on the cold north side. This nw flow pattern looks to favor higher terrain @ 1,000 feet however it appears cold temperatures coming in from Canada. February looks to be knocking winter out of the park making up for lost ground. When I was young my dad called me blizzard brain… not much has changed since!
    🙂

    • David B. says:

      I would suspect Mark is waiting for the time frame to come closer and for other models to come into agreement. So far, it’s la-la-land.

      Not to parrot what another poster was saying a week ago, but: I hope it’s not a major snow event. I have a flight leaving on the 21st.

  5. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Check out the dramatic warming up at Crown Point. 7 degrees in ten minutes!

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=D6193&table=1&banner=off

    • David B. says:

      The 2-3″ that fell here on Saturday night vanished today except for where it has been artificially compacted (piles from shoveling, the remains of snowmen, etc.). With the mild marine air back and temperatures above freezing day and night, I doubt even Corvallis will have anything left by next weekend.

  6. Tomas W. says:

    Interesting Climate prediction center 6 to 10 Day Outlooks

    Arctic outbreak ?

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

    other U.S. MODEL LOOPS confirming ?

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/AVN_6z/avnloop.html

  7. Lurkyloo says:

    Well, I finally made it out of my driveway — first time since Thursday around noon. Couldn’t make it back up the hill, though. Must say it was nice not to have to walk to the store (though the exercise was needed).

    This has been a fun and exciting past few days. Thanks to everyone who shared their experiences! Glad everyone stayed safe. Cheers to you all and I hope we get to do this again before too long (i.e. not another 6-10 years down the road)!

  8. Sapo says:

    Well models looking interesting a few weeks out…We’ll see. Interesting, though, that the GFS nailed an frigid event around February 7th approximately 15 days in advance…

    • marinersfan85 says:

      GFS then took it all away. EURO was the only model that did OK. And it didn’t even pick up Thursdays snow until Wednesday morning when all the other models said no. EURO is starting to get interesting though. We may be doing this again.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      Yeah no the models didn’t fair so well on this arctic blast with respect to the Thursday system. The Euro only spotted it 24 hours before it actually came to fruition and even then it projected it more North then what it actually did when it made landfall. Also all of the systems (Including Thursday’s system if I’m not mistaken) made landfall quicker then forecasted. So yeah this has been a wild ride really. 🙂

    • Sapo says:

      Yeah, models really screwed up this series of events, but what I was saying that was the GFS control had a major dip on the ensemble around 10-15 days before February 7th, so nailed the fact that we got cold awhile in advance. Yes, it did take it away, and yes it did fail on precipitation.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      Oh I see, I didn’t know the GFS spotted that so far out, that’s pretty cool! Sometimes though I think the US and Europe should combine efforts and just make the best darn model they can possibly muster to program. I mean it’s not like these models are “bad” but they could be better in my opinion with more collaboration.

  9. Austin-East Vancouver says:

    What’s the name of the Facebook page you guys are talking about?

    • W7ENK says:

      Fox 12 Blog Discussions

      Sorry I don’t have the link for it at the moment, but if you search for that it should pop up.

    • W7ENK says:

      Here ya go!

      https://www.facebook.com/groups/fox12.blog.discussions/

      Just send a request and a moderator should approve it shortly. 🙂

    • W7ENK says:

      In all fairness, there are a couple other gorups out there too, but I’m not a part of any of those. The one I linked to above parallels this blog well, as I believe most people on here also participate in that group, too. It’s not as rigid a format as some of the others as you can basically speak your mind freely without fear of being banned. If nothing else, it’s a great place to relax, meet more fellow weather enthusiasts and join in on all the raucous fun while we all geek out!

      Hope to see you over there, Austin!

    • JohnD says:

      I just hope that the Facebook people don’t
      abandon the blog! A lot of us aren’t on
      Facebook!

    • W7ENK says:

      Naah, no worries! It’s been three years and I’m still here! 😀

  10. Chia says:

    Nooooooooooooo! I want more snow actually! 😦

  11. W7ENK says:

    On to the next item on the agenda, I suppose…

    HIGH WIND WATCH
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    224 PM PST MON FEB 10 2014

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/14591239

  12. poolsidemike says:

    so who can elaborate on the chatter going on in here and on the FB group about more winter weather possibilities in next 7-14 days? I haven’t had a chance to really look at anything (not that I would know what I’m looking at anyway…but I’m slowly learning!)

    • Model Rider says:

      You already said it Mike. In the next 7-14 days there’s more weather possibilities. Models are just hinting at another modified arctic blast.

  13. Taylor says:

    Much warmer here in Clackamas now. 42 degrees. Still quite a bit of snow on the ground though.

  14. David B. says:

    By the way, how much snow have mid-valley locations like Corvallis and Albany had this season. I bet some of them are above 30 inches!

  15. Model Rider says:

    Major thaw happening in Redmond. After a low of 2 I’m up to 45 degrees. Roads are still compact snow and would assume they will be for a few days since 2.5 feet of snow fell. Well onto the next event. I’m going out on a limb and saying one more minor modified arctic blast hits around the 24th of this month. Bring it on!!!!

  16. 38 here. Warmest since the 3rd.

    • David B. says:

      45 up here on Bainbridge Island. Last time we saw a reading in the forties was the 2nd. Lingering snow is now rapidly vanishing.

  17. Jack in Corbett says:

    Definition of SNOW

    After 3 or 4 days snow is just another dirty four-letter word!

  18. David B. says:

    By the way, ice storm fans should check out what happened in Slovenia last week:
    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/amazing-scenes-severe-storm-encases-slovenian-town-ice-1434997

  19. Austin-East Vancouver says:

    I don’t want the snow to leave:/ can it just stay forever on everything but the roads.

  20. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Lets get rid of the old snow and make room for the new!

  21. With all of the snow on the ground, some may think we made a huge dent in the drought. However, this snow was very dry, and most areas saw maybe .25″-0.50″ liquid equivalent since Thursday. That’s not very much!

    Including all of the heavy snow in December of 2008, it was my driest December on record!

  22. MasterNate says:

    Mark, what are your thoughts on rain totals this week? Are we looking at any sort of flooding issues with the Pineapple Express?

  23. dharmabum says:

    Banked up the fire this morning and then took a good nap on the couch listening to the pleasant sound of rain gently splashing on the skylight!

  24. sinmob says:

    Thank you Jesus

  25. W7ENK says:

    My official report sent to the NWS Portland office:


    #C568 Spotter Report
    Milwaukie, Oregon

    45° xxxxxx N
    122° xxxxxx W

    MON 10 FEB 2014

    Accumulations:

    THU 6 FEB 2014 – 3.0″ Snow
    FRI 7 FEB 2014 – 4.5″ Snow
    SAT 8 FEB 2014 – 5.5″ Snow

    SAT 8 FEB 2014 – 3/16″ ZR
    SUN 9 FEB 2014 – ~1/4″ ZR

    Storm total:

    13.0″ Snow
    ~1/2″ ZR

    Melting now in progress.

    ***
    Records are complete beginning June 2010

    • JohnD says:

      Impressive to say the least! And man were we
      due! YES it CAN and (SOMETIMES) DOES snow in
      Portland metro! Here’s to continued savoring
      of this event–and looking forward to the
      next one!

    • David B. says:

      Are you going to be making and posting a series of Youtube videos like you did with the 2008 storms?

    • IceCold says:

      Did Mark ever say how much he got at his house? If he did could someone pass on the info?

    • Jake at the Lake says:

      Very impressive considering the dome and all. LOL

    • Chuck On Mt Scott says:

      Hopefully ‘The Dome’ is forever gone..

    • David B. says:

      No, just relocated northwards. It caused us to miss out on most of the fun up here and made this one a total snow bust for Victoria and Vancouver.

    • W7ENK says:

      David, I did take a bunch of video (1080p HD this time!), though I still have some narrative to record. My voice has been AFU for the last three weeks, so I sound kinda like Fran Drescher swallowed a sack of gravel and rusty sharp things (thankfully without the obnoxious accent), but I’ll do my best to get something online before the weekend.

      As for The Dome, when it breaks, it breaks good! It’s wierd. Marginal or small snow events and we tend to get screwed. Big snows like this one or 2008, we seem to have higher snow totals than most. I think that’s because my area, though up on a hill, is also down in a little bowl, if that makes any sense? On the leeward side of Mt. Scott (East wind), Mike by CTC just 2 miles to my East got 9 inches, as did Jeff about 3 miles down the hill to my West.

      One thing is for sure, this winter storm scratched my itch! I promise, you guys won’t hear me b!+c# about The Dome until summer thunderstorm season starts up. After this week’s failure, I suspect The Dome will come back with a vengence! I just hope I don’t have to wait another 5+ years for another decent snowfall.

  26. David B. says:

    The marine air always wins in the end.

  27. John Gibson says:

    Ready for lots of rain and mountain snow. Let’s get the snowpack back up where it should be.

    • Drew says:

      Looks a little warm for Ski Bowl to get good accumulation. Hopefully the temps stay cold there. Meadows and TLine look to get dumped on though. /fingers crossed

  28. I think most of us are ready, even us weather geeks!

  29. Finally some good news. Thanks for keeping us updated.

  30. Laura in Corbett says:

    Yay!

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