ECMWF Maps: Mild, Cool, Mild

Spent most of today cleaning up emails and dealing with post-storm stuff.  I’m working on a page detailing how the storms went last week forecast-wise.  The 4 weekly maps from last night’s ECMWF run are almost the same as they have been for a week, or maybe even 10 days.  Mild westerly flow this week, cooler flow then real chilly trough next week.  Then the last few days of February into early March ridging comes back

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The 00z GFS seems to support that idea with snow levels down to the “hilltop level” about 10 days from now, then milder again.

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31 Responses to ECMWF Maps: Mild, Cool, Mild

  1. Jason Hougak says:

    Weather Whinner Warning for the blog below. People below are so fickle they have forgot what winter is about. We’ve had a week arctic blast, minor snow in December, and a week arctic blast with snow and ice in February. That’s two weeks of rough winter weather from November to February 11th. Boy I wish it was worse than everyone would move away from here in Oregon.

    • Diana - Mt Scott says:

      I should have heeded your warning! I would like to have winter until March 21st or thereabouts, then I would like to have spring until approximately June 21st, then summer. See how that works? I don’t understand wishing away the season we’re in, just enjoy each season for what it brings. I think they are all quite spectacular in the Pacific Northwest.

  2. WEATHERDAN says:

    Some of people on this blog don’t seem to want Winter to end. Well guess what it will. The chances of more sea level snow from here on out will thankfully diminish quite rapidly. Soon the suns angle will make it just about impossible for sticking snow to fall to the valley floor. If that doesn’t suit you well tough. Now maybe you might see a flake or two mixed in next week but I doubt it. Maybe at about 1500 feet but more likely above 2000 feet. The snow was fun for a while but so was Christmas and Halloween. But you don’t see many pumpkins or Christmas trees about these days. For me it seems like it’s time to start thinking about barbeques and baseball. Not snowmen and icicles. Hey I love the snow in December and January. Even early February is OK. But when mid February gets here I start to dream about warmer weather. Low 60,s with sun and a light breeze would be perfect right about now. So bring on the sun Mark and fire up the barbeque at the bottom of the cliff.

    • Model Rider says:

      Well I think its highly unlikely in mid Feb. to get summer weather Dan. So in the meantime since we cant have that, I say bring on more snow. And Halloween and Xmas have nothing to do with wanting snow in late winter. Ok buzz Killington?

    • Sifton says:

      This Buds for you Dan!! Cheers……..

    • Jason Hougak says:

      You guys are weather men??? I love wild weather and winter is it in the PNW, so keep you thoughts about summer on the back burner and take all the rain/snow we can get. Flip floppers whining about boring weather and crying over three days of snow, get outa here, I’m sick of it!!!!!

    • David B. says:

      Actually, there has been sticking snow down to nearly sea level as late a the 3rd week in April in some places, believe it or not. It’s happened in Salem and Seattle in the last 10 years. And two years ago Eugene got a big dump on March 21st… so it can happen, though it’s definitely unusual and it doesn’t last for long.

      In the more immediate term, any snow that comes the weekend after next will either be above 500-1000 feet or very fleeting. No model is showing an arctic blast. Some are showing it cold enough for wet snow that might get briefly dragged down to the lowest elevations by heavier precipitation and evaporative cooling.

      I wouldn’t count on 60s until some time in March.

  3. David B. says:

    Winters with two arctic blasts are rare enough, yet some folks are wishing for a third? Some people are NEVER satisfied!

    • Linda says:

      I’m one of those people who are never satisfied, I guess, lol. I keep wondering……….ok, when is the next snowstorm? Bring it on. Mark………would you mind arranging this? I love the snow.

    • dharmabum says:

      We don’t get these arctic events very often, so some of us like to see as much snow as possible, makes it almost like living in 4 season country. Now the folks that wish for windstorms are the ones I don’t quite understand!

    • David B. says:

      @dharmabum – I’ve lived in 4 season country and the snow can get tiresome, particularly in early spring when you haven’t seen the ground since last fall, there’s a foot or two of dense, partially-melted snow that (due to its density) melts sloooowly, looks depressing and dingy (because it’s old, dirty snow), and reflects the sun and warmth away keeping highs in the upper 30s/low 40s while places 30 miles away with no snow on the ground are getting into the lower 60s.

      I like the winters here that give you a taste of winter then the snow melts promptly in the marine air and goes away without any depressing lingering bleak cold early spring period.

    • dharmabum says:

      David, david, I guess you educated me on that! And that’s why I said almost like, ok, again we don’t get much snow here, I have lived in the Portland area 60 plus years and usually only 1 snow event every 5 years on average, and some years I remember from working outside all winter farming,seeing not a flake of snow all winter long including any in a mix with rain, so understand that some of us like these arctic blasts, (maybe you need to keep moving south & west?)

    • David B. says:

      Make no mistake: I think the arctic blasts are fun, and up until Saturday night I was getting seriously bummed at missing out on the snow fun. I’m just glad our snow events end promptly, instead of spending weeks in the dingy-dirty-slowly-melting phase.

      I generally wouldn’t want to live someplace where it NEVER snows at all. Too boring. The lowlands west of the Cascades is just about right; if only there weren’t sometimes these multi-year runs of winters with no sticking snow in them at all.

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    As I said yesterday, the pattern looks to favor snow at 1,000 feet. But who knows, the way this winter is going anything is possible.

    • David B. says:

      If there is snow all the way down to the lowest elevations in 10 days or so, it will probably be of the now-you-see-it, now-you-don’t variety: heavy showers that drag the snow level down for maybe a few hours while things get dusted in white, then it ends and things promptly begin melting.

  5. Not often you seen an 11 degree jump from 11 pm to 12 AM 🙂

    Check this out at Troutdale!

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=TTD&num=48

  6. Eastman(Parkrose/NE Portland) says:

    It was a tie. Haha ill take that!

  7. Eastman(Parkrose/NE Portland) says:

    I don’t mind it either. I also think having one last cold spell could top off an already awesome winter. Dont ya think?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I don’t see any sort of arctic blast or cold spell, just cooler than average and wet

    • karlbonner1982 says:

      Maybe we could go from wet AM snow late next week, to a bunch of sunny 60s the week afterward? Brief morning wet snow is still very manageable in late February with a chilly Gulf of Alaska trough.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Enough is enough. I am sick and tired of the cold and snow.I want some sunny days in the 60,s and I want them now. Two arctic blasts is enough for one Winter. I just went through 4 days of getting stuck in my driveway because of 18 inches of snow. My heating bills will be sky high because of this epic Winter. So please no more cold weather. What I do want is an epic Spring and an epic Summer.

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      waaaaa…….

    • Model Rider says:

      Waaaaa +2. Lol Ryan

  8. Eastman(Parkrose/NE Portland) says:

    Who was it? Lol. Always happens to me!

  9. BoringOregon says:

    First!!

  10. Eastman(Parkrose/NE Portland) says:

    First :p

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