Snow Showers Today

Radar and observations (looking out the window) show snow showers have popped up the past few hours over the Willamette Valley.  As of 11:45am they seem to be increasing in intensity.  There is a weak surface area of low pressure of the coastline, and the arrival of colder air from the east overhead may be giving a little lift to the cloud cover.  That’s the cloud cover that I thought would be gone by this morning.  Here’s the view down in Salem, which seems to be getting some of the heavier showers:

Commercial and Kuebler_pid2446

Regardless, it’s a bit too warm during the daylight hours for snow to stick.  Road surface temps in the metro area are around 40 degrees or so, and air temps are into the mid 30s.  IF snow showers were to continue past sunset, then it’ll be plenty cold for snow to stick.  But they should dissipate during the afternoon.  We’ll see.

Two other things I notice this morning:  Models have overdone the cold air banked up against the east side of the Cascades.  The WRF-GFS showed 5,000′ temps around zero to +5 by this morning on the east side of the north Oregon Cascades.  Instead it’s 13 and 12 at Timberline and Meadows.  Oops…  The other is that models obviously have overdone the cold air at the surface in general.  Sure, it’s still a blast of arctic air the next few days, but high temps will probably end up in the lower 30s instead of 20s.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

156 Responses to Snow Showers Today

  1. pgiorgio says:

    Thursday has a sunshine with no clouds on the kptv 7 day forecast

  2. paulbeugene says:

    Euro 00z has 5.9″ snow in EUG, 4.8 in Corvallis, 4.5 SLE, 2.5 PDX

  3. steve pongracz says:

    I heard 12 in Saturday then 1 in of frz rain sunday

  4. W7ENK says:

    Absolutely no snow whatsoever in upper Milwaukie today. No evidence on the ground when I got home a bit ago, spoke to my Mom earlier (she lives 1/2 mile to my SW), home all day and she didn’t even see any snowflakes falling. In fact, she had no idea it was snowing anywhere in the area today, she didn’t believe me at first.

    I’m seriously hoping for snow snowfall…

    • WX NINJA says:

      I was at a house on Thelma Ct in Milwaukie today, not too far from 205, and it snowed off and on a few times during the hour and a half that I was there.

  5. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Models are kind of all over the place, but seems to be a little consistency to bring a low in south of PDX. 00z NAM and GFS were both snowy for nearly the entire Willamette Valley. 00z GEM wasn’t, but it’s the GEM(no offense to any Canadians here) Saturday-Sunday is also up in the air. I think it’ll be Wednesday 00z or Thursday 12z before the finer details are smoothed over, but there is great potential for accumulating snow anywhere Roseburg north.

    Also, did anyone notice once again 00z GFS bottoms PDX out at -11c 850mb, but is crazy cold with The Dalles down to a staggering -20c? Again run after run shows this. I think it’s crazy to see a 9c difference only a distance of only 90 miles. I also have some concerns that a damaging east wind storm could be on the way Wednesday into Thursday morning for PDX mainly east of I-205.

    A lot of fun model riding ahead!

  6. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Don’t expect much clearing tonight. Maybe some enhanced flurries for everybody by morning.
    http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LGX&product=NCR&overlay=01101111&loop=yes

  7. Austin-East Vancouver says:

    What time is this system looking to come in on Thursday?

  8. Snow89 says:

    GFS output shows 0.17 precip for PDX with the Thursday afternoon system. Salem 0.22 and Eugene 0.64.

    PDX: 1″ to 2.5″
    SLE: 1.5″ to 3″
    EUG: 5 to 8″

    • AdamInAumsville says:

      Eugene is the place to be, man!

    • Snow89 says:

      Yes but the system could trend north or south at the last minute or maybe even weaken, we should know in greater detail by tomorrow night.

    • Mark says:

      It could also usher in warmer air in the south valley, making for a quick Eugene event, but as Snow89 says, tomorrow should drive more clarity.

  9. dharmabum says:

    I had a great day, unexpected snow and then the wind picked up, it’s so nice to have 4 seasons. I do hope that a lot of the overly serious bloggers do get out and just enjoy the day. Sometimes I do get bored with the comments and thoughts that somehow people can control or predict the outcome of the future to their own personal whims, then extreme disappointment sets in when the reality of nature and life hit us with brute reality, but then, to each his or her own, (;{0)

  10. mrskrupp says:

    I will be so pissed if Eugene/Salem gets all
    the snow again and the metro area gets
    shit!!

  11. Snow89 says:

    OOZ GFS Thursday at 10pm, lots of snow for the Valley, just move this up a little bit.

  12. Model Rider says:

    Um 10 degrees right now at my house and a heavy snow. Three inches in last three hours. I don’t see anything on radar and satellite looks weak. High winds and heavy snow. None of it forecasted. Been snowing all day with winds as well just not as heavy as now. Paul, any explanation? I’m thinking uplift with the cold air but this much?

  13. paulbeugene says:

    GFS 00z looks close to the NAM for snow totals over Willamette Valley…impressive 6 inches already over Eugene area at 54 hours with more to follow.

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      Yup, but by Sat morning it’s changing to rain down here.
      Looking forward to Thurs-Fri. except for the fact that I’m in the middle of getting a roof framed and ready for roofers. Might have to wait a couple days for that.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      It’s fascinating that the WRF-GFS and NAM-MM5 are both farther south with precipitation than the models they are based off of.

    • Taylor says:

      I will not be happy if the precipitation gets taken south. No offense but you guys got your snow back in December. It’s time for Portland Metro area to get their chance.

    • dharmabum says:

      Taylor, how long have you been spoiled like this?

  14. Jason Hougak says:

    The whole entire snowstorm is entirely based on where the low sets up and comes ashore. If far enough south to keep cold air pumping in through the gorge then the northern valley should be set. Over running moisture will occur but if the low heads north and the south wind kicks in we are done for. We need the cold air to be anchored in place to have a good snow!

  15. I keep thinking about the Jan 2004 event and the persistence of the cold pool in the north willamette valley. How similar or different is our setup this week?

    • chris s says:

      that jan 2004 event down here in salem was definitely a repeating forecast bust for the tv mets. Everyday newscast we heard how we would be warming up shortly,etc. It became almost laughable. This does have that feel to it, i hope it pans out the same way!

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      If I’m not mistaken though the high temps. were a bit colder in that event? I don’t think the cold will be quick to move out but I don’t think it’ll be that slow. That was an epic transition event in Salem and those of us East of I-205 in the Portland area.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      I thought so, thanks!

  16. paulbeugene says:

    Interesting situation setting up. What seemed like a fairly dry backdoor arctic blast with quite cold conditions followed by transitional snow/ZR at the back end has evolved into something more interesting, less certain.
    It appears that the arctic boundary will get hung up over Douglas County, not make it much into points S of that. There will remain a boundary draped over the S Willamette Valley or Douglas County that serve as focus for precipitation in the form of snow, to varying extent over next 48-60 hours, starting beyond the next 24 hours or so. Wednesday will be a dry cold day but Thursday is looking white for anywhere from Roseburg north to Salem/Woodburn.
    Model trend has been for the arctic boundary stall, farther N it seems with every run. The Euro definitely caught on with the idea on 12Z run today, NAM is taking it from there as well, GFS 18z too.
    As Eugene is just now getting into the N winds, feel safe to say that we will be cold sector throughout the Willamette Valley, just a matter of where the precip will be.
    Taken at face value, the 00z NAM run had anywhere from 2-8 inches of snow over the entire Willamette Valley with hot spot over Albany/Corvallis/Salem, with main event being 24 hour period ending 66 hours from now.
    Still waiting of course for other runs of other models. Who knows, considering there is still the Fri-Sat event after that, could be some decent snow totals before switch to freezing rain.

    My forecast (to be revised of course):
    Eugene: 3-5 inches Thursday, perhaps 1-2 inches Fri-Sat
    Salem: 3-7 inches Thursday, 2-3 inches Fri-Sat
    PDX: 1-2 inches Thursday, 3-5 Fri-Sat.

    Some lucky soul could get 10-12″ total from this event.

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      NAM is the bad boy of the group. He gets all radical and stuff..
      GFS is like the guy that just tells you what you want to hear..
      GEM is like “whatever dude”..
      ECMWF is like your high school principal …WORD!
      So each has qualities to be valued, but not necessarily the only answer to the question. How’s that for some philosometeorlogical logic?! 🙂

    • paulbeugene says:

      The MM5 version of NAM is farther S with precip on Thursday and then brings in southerly flow on Friday to much of the Willamette valley. This would cut down on snow totals obviously.
      If I think 2-4″ of snow is going to fall, I think that is good enough to call it a SNOWSTORM even though some parts of country would call that just a snowy day.
      I don’t think there is anyone in the Willamette valley who won’t get at least 2 inches.
      The high resolution 4mm NAM still coming out (not the UW run but the nationwide run) and it has the precip centered over Lane/Douglas counties, with .25-.5 inches liquid over Lane, .1-.25 liquid over Linn county, less farther N (as of 57 hours from now)

    • Matt in eugene says:

      Say it ain’t so!

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      Wait we might get snow Thursday too? I thought the weather system is coming in Friday night/Saturday?

  17. paulbeugene says:

    S N O W S T O R M

  18. pedro771 says:

    The 0z NAM is decent for Portland. 🙂

  19. Model Rider says:

    Rob? Where are you when we all neeeeeeed you? Hard to imagine your not posting with all this going on this week.

  20. Andrew (Beaverton, OR) says:

    Down to 31 here with a dewpoint of 18.

  21. MasterNate says:

    Ended up with nearly an inch between Molalla and Canby. It was enough for my son to make a snowman. Still out putting on the finishing touches. It was nice to get the surprise snow with out the blog drama. Hope Saturday turns out awesome!

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