Quick Tuesday Evening Update

Flurries ended soon after sunset and now cold and dry air is pouring into the area.

Models are  a mess this evening; thus we have a very challenging Thursday-Sunday forecast.  What seemed like a very clear “moisture returns and rides over the cold air Saturday” event is now something a bit different.  It appears the arctic boundary (dividing line between cold and dry air and milder air) will sit across central/southern Oregon the next few days.  Several surface lows and/or weak disturbances in the upper atmosphere will ride along that boundary Thursday and Friday.  Then the stronger warm front finally swings north (probably) on Saturday.  Depending on which model and which run you look at, each of those waves of moisture could bring snow to parts of the Willamette Valley.  As of now our RPM and GFS don’t really bring much of anything to the Portland area until late Friday night.  The new 00z ECMWF looks similar, so our forecast is staying that way.  Of course it’s only late Tuesday and I’m pretty sure with the boundary so close to us that things will change.

I am very confident that we’re not getting out of the cold air until at least Sunday.  The 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF don’t have any southerly wind in the metro area through Saturday.  Anyone that thinks they can predict snow totals for Saturday, on a Tuesday evening,  in a pattern like this, is nuts!

MarkSnow_TextPanel

MarkSnow_TextPanel2

More tomorrow…enjoy the fresh Canadian air and wind tomorrow!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

74 Responses to Quick Tuesday Evening Update

  1. steve pongracz says:

    I just saw Portland is under a winter storm watch for tomorrow

  2. paulbeugene says:

    Euro through 102h:
    EUG 9.5″
    CVO 11.2″
    SLE 9.6″
    PDX 6″

  3. W7ENK says:

    EURO. Money shot.

    I need a towel…

  4. paulbeugene says:

    Euro has 2-3″ for PDX and SLE and 1.7″ in EUG by midnight Thu night

    • Ryan says:

      That is wonderful news!!! I always lean towards the Euro. WSW coming soon for PDX I imagine? It’s been issued for the south valley already.

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      Not sure if I like the Euro in these situations, I actually lean towards the GFS when we get into the 24-36 hour range. Hoping Euro is right but don’t think it is. I’m looking for around .5-1 inch into tomorrow night for PDX and more the further south you go.

  5. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    Uhhhhhhh….they must be thinking moisture is coming in farther north than models prog???

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    916 AM PST WED FEB 5 2014

    ORZ008-012-060600-
    /O.NEW.KPQR.WS.A.0002.140206T1200Z-140207T1200Z/
    SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…EUGENE…CORVALLIS…ALBANY…
    COTTAGE GROVE
    916 AM PST WED FEB 5 2014

    …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
    THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADE
    FOOTHILLS OF LANE COUNTY…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER
    STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
    THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

    TIMING…BEGINNING BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY…STEADY THROUGH THE
    MORNING…PEAK INTENSITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING…EASING
    OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
    ACCUMULATION…3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE SOUTH VALLEY…4 TO 8 INCHES
    IN LANE COUNTY FOOTHILLS.
    LOCATIONS INCLUDE…EUGENE..CORVALLIS…SWEET HOME
    IMPACTS…A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL
    DIFFICULT…ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
    SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
    CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

  6. Dave in South Salem (500') says:

    So there is a 48 hour window of potential snow coming up. Should be fun! The NWS is late getting their AFD out, must be some diverging models to work through.

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      I’m sure they are waiting for the entire 12z Model suite to come out including the Euro before releasing the AFD. They do get the Euro earlier than the rest of us so I would assume we’ll have an AFD out by 10:30. Those guys have a HECK of a job on thier hands over the next 48 -72 hours!

  7. PeteCJ says:

    12z gfs a step in the wrong direction for PDX. Silver lining is the S wind takes longer to infiltrate at the lowest levels.

    • Taylor says:

      For both storms? I really hope things don’t fall apart as everyone seems confident we will see snow this weekend.

  8. Ryan says:

    When will the 12z be out?

  9. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Upon reading the NWS estimates on snow for the coming week, lets see….add less than 1/2″ + 1/4 cup powdered sugar for the next two days, add 1″ of snow Friday, throw in 3″ Saturday, carry over the wind factor subtract the the coast range, multiply by the # of model variables, and divide by the # of forecasters against snow, and use the rule of blogcasting pi and we get 45″! Karl Bonner, you are better at the math problems than I am, I think I missed something? I’ll try again. 3 snow storms are heading this way, one from the south, two from the north… Oh, wait, I always forget the decimal point…4.5″ that is… I love a challenging forecast. I’ll bet all the local mets have a wager going for who comes the closest….Good luck, and may the odds forever be in your favor. 😉

    http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Beaverton&state=OR&site=PQR&lat=45.4573&lon=-122.799#.UvJk_bQaI_8

  10. W7ENK says:

    Did anyone happen to notice Mt. Hood this morning just before sunrise? Looks like it’s pretty windy up there…

  11. JohnD says:

    21′ at the moment here at our plant in North Portland.
    Unbelievably intrigued about our current weather
    pattern–like all of us. Here hoping!!!

  12. paulbeugene says:

    For the Thursday-Thursday night snow event, 12Z GFS has snow mostly S of Newport-Woodburn-Sandy, N of Reedsport-Roseburg. 4-7 inches in Lane County lower elevations, less farther N and S. Being in Eugene, am appreciating the model consistency but not taking it for granted.

  13. GTS1K' says:

    17.6 – roarin’ like a freight train…

    Got to set up the generator and fill the gas cans today…

    …AND make an alky run.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      Good point GTS1K! I topped off the antifreeze, for the car, now time to get antifreeze for the humans. Hot cocoa with 100 proof marshmallow vodka otta do the trick.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Made the run yesterday.
      Can’t let the action start unprepared. And it seems like anything is possible, at this stage of the game.

    • Darlene says:

      Thanks for the reminder. Gas cans and Schnapps are now on the to do list! 😉

  14. David B. says:

    19 °F at my place here on Bainbridge this morning. Brrr!

  15. Jason Hougak says:

    This is so much more exciting than the super bowl. We’ve got over an inch of snow which is contributing to the radiational cooling. Temperature has dropped from 18.1-17.4 F in a half hour. If that front comes ashore without south winds we are in for it. I just hope and pray it stays cold in the upper atmosphere to support snow. Freezing rain is going to be a sure bet transitioning out of this thing.

  16. W7ENK says:

    Alright, that’s it, I can’t hold out any longer…

    There will be a qualifying snow event in The Dome before this weekend is over.

  17. Jake at the Lake says:

    Did Andy miss the memo?

  18. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    NWS AFD … too tired to do the copy/pasting format like I usually do… Basically they say a band of snow will develop probably south of PDX Thursday and then lift northward… They want to see 12z runs this morning to see if there is model consistency. Makes sense.
    Sounds promising… Read the discussion here
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?afos=xxxafdpqr&wfo=pqr&print=yes&toggle=dictionary

  19. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    6z GFS was excellent.
    Snow Thursday night perhaps 2-4″
    Snow Saturday 6-10″ turning to freezing rain Sunday.

  20. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Dew points at rock bottom, calm wind, clear skies, yet still in the upper 20’s. what gives?

    • Marcustheweathernut says:

      Even though you don’t notice a Highwind the air is still mixing!!! It might be the wind is just above where you are..

  21. schmit44 says:

    2/4/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:51 at Brookings (US 10( 150 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 39 at CW8449 Charlesto(322 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:8 at ANEROID LAKE #2(7300 ft)
    Low: -12 at ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 34 degrees
    HEREFORD (27/-7 ) (3599 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.21″ at Bend Airport AWO(3455ft)

  22. Model Rider says:

    Coming down like gangbusters still. About 6 inches so far and hasn’t shown signs of stopping. Lol. 7 degrees at my house. This snow isn’t going anywhere for quite awhile. I really hope it aids in the coldness of the east winds. Not sure its falling like this in the basin or not.

  23. BoringOregon says:

    Good night, all hope every one is staying warm!!

  24. Ryan says:

    Sussman’s model showed 2″ in PDX and 3.5″ in Eugene through 8pm Friday. Then for Saturday, it had up to an additional 5″ for PDX and only 1″ additional in Eugene because of a faster warmup down there. So that would mean that before the warmup Sunday, PDX could see 7″ total with Eugene getting 4.5″ total. I think all of us in the valley would be VERY happy with that result. But we shall see what tomorrow brings. Fingers crossed!

    • Snow89 says:

      I like Sussman’s model!

    • Ryan says:

      Me too, not sure which one it is though. The runs looked similar to what mark showed on his forecast tonight, be he was probably smarter to not reveal any specific totals from it. Mark, do you show GFS or Euro during your weather report? Or maybe RPM?

  25. Slavic S says:

    Just give us 8 inches of snow and 1.75 inches of ice on top. That is all.

  26. Eastman(Parkrose/NE Portland) says:

    First!

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