Snow Tonight? Very Unlikely

The flurries earlier today were exciting; at my home it was the first time I’d seen snow in the air in two months!  That’s a little weird to go from early December to early February at 1,000′ and not see any snow even in the air.  And it looks  like that might be all we see overnight and tomorrow morning.

MarkSnowThisEvening

If you are looking for a snow day tomorrow, I doubt it’ll happen.  Although with some wet roads and a dusting here or there maybe some of you can squeeze out a 2 hour delay?

Tuesday the cold arctic air starts pouring into the Portland metro area through the Gorge and right over the Cascades as well.  Take a look at the forecast for Tuesday (and Wednesday too) in the Cascades…extremely cold with temperatures plunging to around zero above 5,000′ and staying there through Thursday morning.  The reason for the extreme cold is the arctic air pooling up on the east side of the Cascades.

FCST_Cascades_PM

Combine that with gusty northeast wind and windchill temps for skiers will be down around -10 to -20.  Have everything covered if you are skiing the next two days!

Down here in the lowlands the exact temperature forecast is a little tricky.  Our RPM and MOS show high temps between 39 and 42 tomorrow and then about 30 Wednesday and Thursday.  Yet the UW’s model, which has done quite well in the past, shows 32/22/25 for high temps in the metro area the next 3 days.  We’ll see.  We have gone a bit in the middle with 36 tomorrow and 28 the following two days.

MarkColdTextPanel

Stay warm tomorrow and Wednesday with the gusty east wind and cold temps!

Looking ahead, the setup still appears to be perfect if you want some Saturday snow to play in.  The ECMWF is a bit faster with snow arrival right around daybreak Saturday.  The GFS model is noticeably slower and not quite as wet.  We’ll see, it’s still 4-5 days away.

In case you’re worried it’s the beginning of a long snowy/icy period?  Don’t, we’re headed into a mild and wet pattern.  In fact it looks wetter than anything we’ve seen in quite a while; so finally a bunch of snow for the mountains next week!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

118 Responses to Snow Tonight? Very Unlikely

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  2. Garron near Washington Square says:

    The NWS weather discussion for the morning backs up my previous comment…USE YOUR GOLU GOGGLES, in other words. Here’s the statement for Thursday/Friday…

    COLD AIR NORTH AND EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO
    THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND RESULT IN VERY
    COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. WIND CHILLS NEAR 0
    CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE GORGE WED THROUGH THU. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
    ISSUE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP THU. THE LATEST NAM AND DEVELOP A
    CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SRN WA…NRN OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO 00Z THU
    AND THEN RETROGRADE IT WWD WED NIGHT. BY 00Z FRI THE GFS HAS IT
    CENTERED OVER NRN WA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT MORE SOUTH AND EAST.
    THERE IS NO REFLECTION OF THIS LOW AT THE SURFACE…WITH STRONG
    OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS FLOW APPEARS TO WEAKEN A LITTLE
    THU…BUT BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE CUTTING IT OFF TOO SOON AND TOO
    MUCH. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN AREA OF QPF ACTUALLY OVER SRN OREGON
    THU AFTERNOON…BUT THE GFS HINTS AT SOME PRECIP GETTING INTO THE SRN
    PART OF THE FORECAST AREA 00Z FRI. THE ECMWF IS DRY…WHILE THE 12Z
    NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN SECTION LATE WED NIGHT AND THU
    MORNING. WEISHAAR

  3. Taylor says:

    East wind is starting to arrive here in Clackamas. Temperature is at 35 degrees right now with a wind chill at 31.

  4. GTS1K' says:

    Light snow last hour or so – 30.2

  5. Lurkyloo says:

    Cute little flurries on the scene.

  6. Model Rider says:

    Not sure it matters with how cold its going to be anyways with those east winds but we have snow cover on the eastside as well. About an inch or so in Redmond right now with light snow all morning and night. Currently sitting at 21 degrees. Tonight about 0 and a high tomorrow of 15. So the snow shouldn’t go anywhere and hopefully will cool those east winds even more for you Portlanders.

  7. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    Legit snow here! Bring on Saturday!

  8. Andrew (Beaverton, OR) says:

    Light-moderate snow here in downtown PDX now

  9. maryinsellwood says:

    Very light, and I stress light, flurries in Sellwood. Seeing a few dozen at a time steadily now for the pass 15 or so minutes. Fingers crossed that it continues…whatever happens this weekend, its sure to be a cold and damp day for the “Worse Day of the Year Ride” (that’s bike ride) this Sunday. Wouldn’t it be classic if the streets were all ice? Sleet, snow or sun, I’m going for it:)

  10. McMinnvilleDude says:

    Light snow in Lafayette, just outside of McMinnville.

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