ECMWF Monthly Run

Just checked out last night’s ECMWF run.  It goes out to one month and I see (and share) the weekly upper-level height maps.  Consistent with the maps from Thursday’s run, showing the wet pattern next week, then some sort of ridging the 2nd half of February.  Wouldn’t that be nice to have some warm weather a week or so after the cold spell?  We’ll see.

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

19 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Run

  1. alohabb says:

    Im ready for spring now please.

  2. Lurkyloo says:

    Those maps look like eggs over easy. 🙂

  3. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Unfortunately this run doesn’t look like a dumping of snow for the central Cascades in Oregon. In fact more rain than snow at pass level in the next couple weeks. Hope it changes….

  4. The Bad Forecaster says:

    The extended GFS models out to 180 hours on the University of Washington website seem to point to slight ridging only so far but then that is just one model. As you know Mark I tend to always favor the ideas of the ECMWF.

  5. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    I just read the afternoon Forecast Discussion by our friendly folks at the NWS. Wow. Quite a read. It isn’t often you ever see an AFD talk about gusts 75-90mph at Corbett, a Wind Advisories being mentioned for consideration for PDX probably east of I-205, and also they are considering the rare High Wind Warning for the western Gorge which I have been mentioning the possibility in my analysis past few days. That is indeed rare! Remember, criteria for easterly events in the Gorge to reach High Wind Warning criteria is when gusts reach or exceed 75mph. This is different than the more typical Warning for southerly winds which is for gusts 60mph or higher.

    There are a bunch of other goodies referring to the Snow/Ice potential this weekend.

  6. W7ENK says:

    That’s one helluva warm anomaly over Alaska in that first frame, wow!!

    • The Bad Forecaster says:

      I did see a 60 degree reading in an earlier operational run of the GFS Erik. Yes it was out there in la la land as we call it.

  7. Maybe we can go from “0 to 60” in about 10 days’ time!

    • David B. says:

      I was living in eastern Washington in 1989 and I remember the reverse happening in early February. Rode my bike in shirtsleeves one weekend, walked on a frozen Yakima River the next.

  8. WEATHERDAN says:

    This has really been a strange Fall and Winter. here in Salem. A huge TRW and record setting rain in September, very dry and cool October,10 consecutive nights with frost to end November. An Arctic blast with some snow and then a very dry December A very dry January, And another Arctic blast and snowstorm in February. Who knows maybe in March we can hit 80 degrees. Enjoy the cold and snow. This is probably the last of our Winterlike weather until next Winter. I hope so. I am ready for Spring. Go Dodgers. Peace.

  9. Ryan says:

    Bring on the snow!

  10. dharmabum says:

    Wow! I’m going out to get 15 gallons of gas for my generators, have thousands of baby plants for spring sales in the greenhouse, need to have the heat.

  11. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    I’d like a false Spring! Bring on the boomers 😉

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