ECMWF Weekly Maps

Here are the next 4 weeks of weather action from last night’s ECMWF run.  What does it mean?  Looks like a wetter period in the middle of the month and MAYBE some false spring weather with ridging returning near the end.  That’s after a very chilly week next week:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

50 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps

  1. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z EURO full run
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    Looks cold to very cold! through day 8 and then exactly like the GEM is shoved the next massive wave of cold air southward into the Gulf of Alaska resulting in a flat ridge building over us.

  2. Jason Hougak says:

    Looking great temperature wise for snow but not much in the way of any available moisture. Boy I miss those years where the entire gulf of Alaska was speckled with popcorn clouds on satellite feeding in on a NW flow. Granted that pattern is a great snow producer above 1000 feet but hey that’s why I live at 1300 feet.
    Northern Oregon missed it in December but if a system develops this go around let’s hope we are in the strike zone! How many would like 1″-2″
    3″-6″? 4″-8″? 8″-12″? 12″-18″? 18″-24″? 24″plus I’ve lost my mind… I just want a snowstorm!!! I would like at least once in my life so much snow I never cared to see it again. My wife doesn’t think it’s possible as CRAZY I am about it… One day!!! 🙂

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      Just wanted to say it’s a pity you missed the December snowstorm back in 2008 because it was awesome!

  3. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Modified arctic air is already arriving by Monday on the WRF. It looks colder over the Columbia Basin and much sooner compared to previous runs.

    If I’m right Wed – Fri should be very impressive on the WRF.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      It’d be funny if this is turns out to be what we’ve been waiting for because I think everyone’s so not giving a hoot at this point. So if it does happen I think everyone will go bonkers if it does lol!

  4. Model Rider says:

    Give us ur thoughts on the gfs and euro Rob. We all wanna hear the optimism. Anxiously waiting.

  5. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z GFS looks outstanding. Very similar 500mb pattern progression to the GEM/EURO. A lot of potential after day 6.

  6. Linda says:

    Mark: Do you think we’ll have any snow this year? I’m in the Redland area, so only about 500 feet, I think. I feel badly for all the folks back east, but still feeling a little cheated this year. 😦 Thanks…….. faithful fan of you, Stephanie, and the group…… Linda C.

  7. Eastman(Parkrose/NE Portland) says:

    Rob- what’s your view on this???

    I am ready to see some snow. And its looking pretty promising!

    Marks 7 day forecast looks great- temp wise!
    Just have to sit back and watch. Anxiously of course!!! Lol
    😉

  8. Model Rider says:

    Dont spray me with the hose. I’ll cry river!!

  9. Jason Hougak says:

    Just because this winter is a bit of a downer doesn’t mean we can’t get one good snowstorm before spring.

  10. Model Rider says:

    Models are looking good and I’m not just talking about the weather ones…….hmmm

  11. JERAT416 says:

    Time for a world record in the Cascades where we go from 30% to 300% of average snowfall in a week……..

    • Jason Hougak says:

      I don’t think that’s possible but hey I like your style… bring it on old man winter!!!

  12. Marcustheweathernut says:

    According to the weather Channel app there will be thunderstorms at 5:30 in my area??!!! Lol not even sure why I have this app anymore, I guess maybe the current temperatures are reliable??!!

  13. Greg Carstens says:

    The NWS Digital Forecast database last night for my area up here in Southeast Tacoma was showing a high of 39 and low of 30 but less than a slight chance of precip at the end of the 7 day forecast period. Two weeks ago I felt it might get cold the first week of February and the ECWMF and even the GFS to some extent trended to those current thoughts. I love it when my hunches so far out end up looking pretty decent.

  14. gidrons says:

    When does inversion season officially end?

    • In Utah the official season is November 1 – February 28/29. We don’t have an “official” inversion season here, but I imagine the midpoint would be almost perfectly aligned with the winter solstice (no seasonal lag.) So if it “begins” on October 20 it would “end” on February 20, both of which have the same sun angle.

      In actuality, the 2nd half of October is usually the “fall intro” to inversion season, and the 2nd half of February is the “spring outro.”

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I agree with Karl. Although even in early February we don’t tend to have long periods with low clouds and fog like in mid January. Generally.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Sometimes I noticed an increase in March. At least in Hillsboro. February was somewhat marked off as a more clear month but many mornings in March I can recall waking up to 1/4 – 1/2 mile visibility.

  15. Model Rider says:

    When Mark says snow then I’ll believe it.

  16. Marcustheweathernut says:

    Snow!!!!!

  17. nateman says:

    first finally

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