Rain and Mountain Snow On The Way

Tuesday, 11pm…

A nice wet evening out there with a good quarter to third of an inch rainfall in the metro area so far.  That was nice after a total forecast BUST this morning; couldn’t believe it when I looked out the window at 9am and it was dry!  Grrr…

Now we have a very warm flow of air coming in from the southwest and that will continue through tomorrow afternoon.  With surface low pressure passing by to the north, we should see a southerly breeze developing later tonight for most of the valleys west of the Cascades.  The result will be temps in the 50s!  Enjoy, because then we’ll turn chilly for the next 7-10 days.  Probably not COLD, but just cool with snow levels between 1,500′ and 3,000′ until further notice.  The bad news is that we just have one dumping of snow the next 48 hours and then it’ll be mainly dry for the following week.

MarkSnow_MtHoodFcst_2013

I’d avoid skiing tomorrow and go for Thursday and Friday as a result.

Here in the lowlands our weather will remain quite dull over the next week as high pressure pushes a bit farther offshore and we get into a split flow jet stream pattern.  Or a ridge just to our west.  Either way, not a whole lot of anything happening.

Over the past few days, some runs of some models have been hinting at an arctic blast the middle/latter part of next week.  That would be from ridging building farther north into Alaska; putting us in the cold northerly flow behind it.  I haven’t mentioned it either on the air (because it’s past the 7 Day forecast) or here because I haven’t seen much consistency.  The 00z GFS and 12z ECMWF ensemble charts generally keep the real cold stuff away:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Of course there are plenty of cold members and quite a bit of uncertainty.  The 00z GFS operational model is a warm outlier, but not outside the range of possibilities.  The new 00z ECMWF is very similar (no chart yet), showing a very splitty and weak flow through an upper-level ridge offshore next week.  Take a look at Day 10…that’s some weak sauce!  In fact this latest run has no rain in most of Oregon for 7 days again beginning this Friday afternoon.

500vty_f240_bg_NA

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

68 Responses to Rain and Mountain Snow On The Way

  1. Marcustheweathernut says:

    18z looks decent!!

  2. Sapo says:

    12z ECWMF great, with really cold temps. 12z GFS is a big improvement from the 6z, is similar to today’s 00z ECMWF. 12z GEM staying with the cold/snowy idea! Getting optimistic…

  3. BoringOregon says:

    Just heard on the weather channel, that we might get some kind of winter storm. When is this going to be next week some time!?!?

    • nateman says:

      If you heard it on the weather channel probably tomorrow. Not to be rude but they cant predict the time the sun will set.

  4. Eastman(Parkrose/NE Portland) says:

    I am loving what I am seeing!!!

    Here we go guys! Hang on; our fun is beginning! 🙂

  5. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Whoa! What happened to the euro?!

  6. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Winter Storm Maximus is RAGING here with partly sunny skies and DRY here!! Thanks TWC for warning us….. (sigh)

  7. WEATHERDAN says:

    58 in Salem yesterday. Warmest in in almost 3 months. Winds gusted to 45 MPH. Quite an interesting day. But only .08 inch of rain. Salem in now 15.56 inches of rain below normal since Oct 1st. It would be nice to bookend our Winter this year with snow events. We got 1 inch in early December. It would be nice to get some more in early February. I have a feeling that this will pretty much be it for Winter this year. So let’s end it on a high note with some snow and some cold. Then on to spring. Go Dodgers. Peace.

  8. Sapo says:

    6z GFS and 00z ECMWF not bad. ECMWF colder than the GFS, allowing the cold air a little bit further west. 6z GFS has cold beginning around the night of the 3rd, so does ECMWF. GFS still going with precip on the arrival of the cold air.

  9. schmit44 says:

    1/29/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:60 at CW5302 Roseburg( 410 ft)
    Low: 49 at BROOKINGS(79 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:28 at NYSSA(2172 ft)
    Low: 21 at HOWARD Mt Howard (8150 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 27 degrees
    CROOKED RIVER FE (55/28 ) (2919 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    3.07″ at Mount Hood Meado(5249ft)
    2.67″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  10. Eastman(Parkrose/NE Portland) says:

    Im right with you on that Ben.
    Please!!!

  11. Ben T says:

    Plz snow tnx

  12. …positive windshield splat test at 1600 ft outside of sandy…

  13. 0.59″ here and still falling…:D

  14. Jason Hougak says:

    Timberline 7 day showing freezing level and precip, cold for snow but where is the snow?????
    http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Timberline/6day/mid
    I can’t wait until we are all excited again about cold temperatures and snowfall measured by the yardstick!

  15. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    At this point, I’m not looking for any snow down here in the dome. I just want to see more rain and more mountain snow. That’s completely doable for a few more weeks for sure.

    I personally don’t think this is the worst winter we’ve had, but I definitely don’t think it’s been a winner by any stretch of the imagination. That arctic snap in December generated enough goodwill for me to not absolutely dislike this winter.

  16. Jason Hougak says:

    Awesome day working. Drove to Parkdale to inspect a well pump that wouldn’t run. I drove across 26 to 35. Rain till the very top of Bennet Pass 4675 feet where is was snowing with a good dusting, yeah snow… Right? I’ll take what I can get. Drop down into rain and then into the ice. From just above Little John snowpark all the way to job in Parkdale it was freezing rain. There was about 0.25″ and was quite beautiful. Now if that happened in Portland watch out!!! I have studs on my work truck but you know people outside the city truly know how to deal with weather. Nobody was in panic and we got the customers water flowing again. By noon it was melting… slowly. We climb back up hwy 35 and it darkens and rain picks up. By the elk meadows trailhead it is all snow and at the pass it’s got about an inch since early morning… wahoo?!?!?????
    Southside quickly changes to rain. Next job east of Sandy. Pull and replace
    Pump. Downpours with breaks but all in all I’m enjoying the rain. Wet yesterday and today. Looking forward to rain tomorrow too. Owe and that snowstorm on February 17th please!!!

  17. Marcustheweathernut says:

    18z is a lot colder than the 12z!!!

  18. Sapo says:

    Nice 12z EURO bringing back the cold air. The GFS and GEM continues to be warm, but the EURO could be the start of more cold air.

    • David B. says:

      I’ll believe it when I see it, and even if it comes this has been such a l0sing winter that I fully expect it to be a snow-free arctic blast.

  19. Jeff Raetz says:

    31mph in the dome

    37mph in happy valley

  20. WEATHERDAN says:

    At 2:00 PM Salem is Mostly cloudy and 56 with South winds gusting to 39 MPH. I didn’t think the winds were supposed to gust to 40 MPH in the valley today.

  21. Eastman(Parkrose/NE Portland) says:

    The snow is coming! Lets all get the shovels ready!
    It is so nice to see the rain again- for true Oregonians; its hard to handle the sun through winter. Very Beautiful- but its just a little too early for me. 🙂

  22. Model Rider says:

    And the 12z euro reverts back to cold. Pretty much throughout the run. Go Hawks!!

  23. Marcustheweathernut says:

    Euro looks chilly again:)

  24. pappoose in scappoose says:

    “The Seahawks will feel very comfortable with the weather conditions at MetLife stadium on Sunday.”

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/01/super-bowl-weather-super-boring.html

  25. W7ENK says:

    Time to button it up, folks. This winter is over! Has been since December week 3. Sad, but true. I was living in Klamath Falls during the winter of 2004/05, so I can’t speak to its lameness up here, but this winter has certainly been the lamest I’ve ever experienced, and after the string of progressively lame winters we’ve had recently –2010/11-2011/12-2012/13 — I didn’t think it was possible. Guess I was mistaken.

    • Drew says:

      As long as we get mountain snow into April (like the last few years) I’m happy. Could care less about a snow event in town tbh.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      I never thought I’d be this happy about a rain event, but, this year I’ve already had enough complaints from those that suffer from allergies, and the air was beginning to “taste” bad due to the smog/version we had going here.

    • jeff says:

      I remember several times in february and march getting a pinapple express for weeks then 2 or 3 inches of snow..It just sucks you can’t predict mother nature..No one mentioned rain with snow monday evening..I live at 200 feet by st paul..It will come..just be happy we got some moisture

    • W7ENK says:

      There’s no indication that mountain snow is in the cards. In fact, if we do end up with a Pineapple Express, all bets are off. Any snow the mountains do have will be erased by a significant margin. I guess in that regard, we’re lucky there’s no Pineapple Express in the cards, either…

      The rivers are low. Minus a snowpack of any sort, that will only get worse going into summer. I hope you all know how to conserve electricity, ’cause it’s gonna get tight!

    • David B. says:

      This winter has indeed been epically lame for most of us (Corvallis/Eugene excepted, of course).

  26. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Whoopee! Santa came late, but came he did, and my new weather station is up and logging:

    http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KORMOLAL14

    Couldn’t be prouder to have it record the FROPA at preeecisely 0357 PST this morning!

    It’s mounted high on a 20′ pole; I wanted to make sure to get a decent wind reading. Unfortunately the pole is a bit wiggly– it’s plenty strong, but I think it’s jiggling the rain gauge with a good wind gust. It’s recorded 90 “/100 in the last event, when my bucket has only 64 “/100 in it this morning. I need to go for a stiffer pole, or a mid-set of guy lines.

    And if we do get another inversion this winter, I get to prove that I really am the cold spot in the NE valley.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      Congrats ChiefWright!!! At least you got to see if the rain gauge works before the warranty runs out….Can’t wait till our next inversion!

  27. JJ78259 says:

    San Antonio temperature roller coaster continues 80 this past Sunday 50 on Monday 34 yesterday with freezing rain in the morning back up to 78 Friday with south winds. Coat shorts coat shorts keeps you guessing!

  28. schmit44 says:

    1/28/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:59 at LONG PRAIRIE(1093 ft) & Brookings Airpor(459 ft) & Gold Beach (US 1(60 ft)
    Low: 50 at Brookings Airpor(459 ft) & Gold Beach(16 ft) & BANDON(79 ft) & EW3367 Coos Bay(98 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:23 at MORGAN MOUNTAIN(4200 ft) & NPOWDR(3212 ft)
    Low: 6 at North Powder (I- (3273 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 28 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (51/23 ) (5000 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.28″ at YELLOWSTONE MTN.(3080ft)
    1.20″ at Mount Hood Meado(5249ft)
    1.16″ at GOODWIN PEAK(1800ft)
    1.11″ at CINNAMON(4834ft)

  29. boydo3 N Albany says:

    ’76-’77 all over again.

    • Greg Carstens says:

      Nope 76-77 was far worse. More closer to 2004-05. Paradise on Mount Rainier barely got over 400 inches of snowfall that season and the place is pretty much on that pace again so far but we still have the rest of this month, February, March, and April to go which can and have produced good amounts of snow before. As far as overall snow pack per state goes though in the Northwest, I would say that Oregon is the worst off out of the three.

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      No, this is as bad or worse down here. Dry dry dry. Without looking at precip records I’d venture to guess that 04-05 was wetter (so far).

  30. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Thanks for the update, Mark.

    00z EURO full run
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    Some colder air tries to dig west over us, but not quite. A huge reload moves into Yukon at day 9-10. The 500mb pattern is really a convoluted mess.

    Also, it’s kind of starting to look like “what pattern change?” aside from the rain next few days.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      F
      I
      R
      S
      T

    • Greg Carstens says:

      It’s better than the non event winter we have had though. I’ll be happy with anything we get at this point and not complain. This winter has been a joke compared to the almost record snowfall in Chicago. The O’Hare airport was sitting on 30 inches of snowfall for this month and the record is 34.3 inches set back in 1979. A lot of stations though are sitting on above normal snowfall this winter all the way down into the Southern tier of states. It even snowed today 0.2 inches at Galveston today. It’s our turn! Time to rejoice now that “something” is finally happening.

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