A Fog Record? Not really, it can be gloomier

MarkFogStreaksI checked the numbers today; and believe it or not we haven’t set any fog records in Portland yet this fall or winter.  The numbers above show it has been much worse in some years.  Although for January you’ll notice that we’ll be within 1 day of the record after Saturday.  I am very confident we’ll see dense fog after midnight tonight to give us our 10th day; after all it’s already at PDX and we’re just waiting on the clock now.  Just 2 more days in the next week and we’ll have a new January record.

It’s interesting to note the records drop off in the 2nd half of winter; that’s because we don’t tend to see strong inversions once we get to February.  That plus the upper-level atmosphere is the coldest of the winter yet surface temps are turning a bit warmer.  February has never seen more than 9 days and March goes down to 6, less than September.

Today was interesting with a strong east wind in the Gorge that lifted and moved over the fog layer in the metro area.  At one point the wind gusted to 60mph in Corbett, yet Troutdale just a few miles away was calm!  That did change this evening.  For the first time the east wind has punched through to most areas east of I-205.  That should keep fog away in those areas most of tonight; everyone else will see fog and freezing fog.  Two other things I’ve noticed this evening.  The cool airmass in the lowest 1,000′ west of the mountains has continued to cool, that means more widespread freezing fog (frost/ice on roads) overnight and Saturday morning.   And the airmass moving through the Gorge is quite a bit cooler compared to last night at this time due to a cold pool that has developed east of the Cascades.   Neither means too much to the forecast, but you know I like that stuff.

No significant changes the next few days except the east wind backs off tomorrow and Sunday (more fog/clouds), then returns Monday-Wednesday (less fog/clouds in metro area).  There won’t be enough easterly wind through next week to get rid of the fog/clouds in the valley.  As a result, south of Portland (Woodburn to Eugene) I doubt you’ll see any sun for the next 7 days!  Sorry about that.  We’ve seen it before.  Take a look at last January in Salem:

SalemColdTemps

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

67 Responses to A Fog Record? Not really, it can be gloomier

  1. Still thick fog here in BG.

    Maybe I’ll head up to Crown Point!

  2. Taylor says:

    Gusty east winds have suddenly entered Clackamas just now. Did not expect this. No fog for us tonight lol.

  3. 300game says:

    1/19/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:71 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)
    Low: 54 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:25 at NYSSA(2172 ft) & HEREFORD(3599 ft)
    Low: 3 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft ) & MAZAMA (4596 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 52 degrees
    CRANE PRAIRIE (55/3 ) (5500 ft )

  4. Model Rider says:

    O well, Seahawks won. Super bowl bound now. Makes this weather thing seem minuscule.

    • Lurkyloo says:

      That game was a toe-clencher. Whew!

    • Longview - 400 ft says:

      A victory does put the current weather and future good or bad on the back burner.

      Of course, a Seahawk victory in New Jersey in two weeks would be better than a snowstorm any day!!!

      Go HAWKS!!!!!!

    • Sifton says:

      congrats to my home state Seachickens! (+ a couple bad calls sure does help) but to bad for them the bowl isn’t in Seatown which = a win 4 Denver!!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Broncos’ll be running as fast as they can when the Hawks fly by!

  5. Sapo says:

    18z GFS is cooler at hr. 240 than all of today’s runs. Hoping that the ensemble will also verify with a cooler trend.

  6. dharmabum says:

    “Actually, today is a great day!” Sun’s out! (; {)

  7. Jason Hougak says:

    Yes! The weather pattern to be changing for February. 16 day GFS has precip. in good amounts for start of February. For the first time in quite a while the Climate Prediction Center in the 8-14 day outlook has us with normal temp and normal precip. At least we aren’t red and brown and more for above temp and below precip.

  8. Sapo says:

    12z ECMWF at least showing a cooler pattern.

  9. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    12Z GFS operational not great, shows the west coast ridge rebuilding after being flattened for a few days. However, it was one of the warmest members of the 12Z ensemble suite, so chances are low that it verifies.

  10. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Go hawks!!’ Met Tyler Mode at Safeway in Kelso this morning grabbing beer. Heading up to Seattle. Foggy drive.

  11. pappoose in scappoose says:

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
    230 AM PST SUN JAN 19 2014

    CLIMATE…THE ONGOING QUESTION IS, OF COURSE, WHEN WILL THIS BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GIVE WAY. THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS IN THE CLIMATE AND SOME OF THE WEATHER MODELS OF A PATTERN SHIFT DURING
    THE LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH INTO EARLY FEBRUARY. THIS AFTERNOON THE GFS IS NOW ON BOARD WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN ON ABOUT DAY 10, JANUARY 28TH, WITH DETAILS QUITE DIFFERENT BETWEEN THESE TWO OPERATIONAL MODELS. HOWEVER, THE CANADIAN MODEL INDICATES STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUING. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, THE CANADIAN USUALLY PERFORMS THE WORST OF THE 3 WEATHER MODELS. THE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERIC MODEL, CFSV2, HAS BACKED OFF ON WETNESS FOR THE END OF JANUARY INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY, BUT STILL INDICATES INCREASED CHANCES FOR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL WETNESS OVER OUR AREA FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. SUMMARIZING, THERE IS SOME HOPE ON THE HORIZON AROUND THE END OF THE MONTH, BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN A BONA FIDE PATTERN CHANGE
    REMAINS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. BTL

  12. Sapo says:

    00z and 6z GFS both not as cool as yesterday’s runs, but at least they show a cool and wet pattern. 00Z ECMWF was pretty bad.

  13. schmit44 says:

    1/18/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:70 at BURNT RIDGE(2955 ft)
    Low: 51 at BURNT RIDGE(2955 ft) & SIGNAL TREE(3294 ft) & BALD KNOB(3630 ft) & QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:23 at NYSSA(2172 ft)
    Low: 2 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    Horse Ridge (US (62/11 ) (4160 ft )

  14. Longview - 400 ft says:

    I believe this is the first time I have ever seen a forecast of any means, this time the NWS, where everyday and night is Fog, Fog, and more Fog. There is absolutely nothing else different from tonight till Wednesday.

    WOW, not even a little sun or something.

    Go HAWKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  15. Model Rider says:

    Euro is not worth looking at. It really sux. Gfs and euro are on totally different paths. Not sure what to make of it.

    • W7ENK says:

      Go with the EURO. Always, go with the EURO. It picks up on things first, and consistently outperforms all the other models.

      Big kudos, too, for nailing the exact, bizarre path and landfall for Hurricane Sandy. Can’t deny that.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      HWRF was in step with the EURO inside day 5 it performed just as well.

  16. W7ENK says:

    After an amazingly sunny and comfortable day fishing at the Oregon Coast, and a spectacular sunset from Ne’kahnie Mountain, it’s so nice to return to the inversion. Oh, how I missed all this limited visibility and poor air quality! Inversions are my favorite!! 🙄

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      I agree, I just love the taste the fog is getting here lately. Kinda like the dank moldy smell mingled with the smog layer to create a sulfer suffle. If Tillamook could get that as an ice cream flavor, I could savor the flavor all year long! Bon Apetit cloud dwellers…

  17. Model Rider says:

    00z. Definite pattern change. Real troughy out west here. Ridge looks to be in the sweet spot for our cold chances. Hmmmmm,, Rob any thoughts?

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      00z GFS Ensembles warmest of the day, unfortunately. 00z EURO as you mentioned was a big turd. 00z GEM sucked, but did flatten the ridge at day 10. It’ll be 3-5 days before we have a grasp on if we’re going to see a pattern change or not, and if so what exactly. Cooler/wetter mountain snow, or colder/snowy….

  18. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z GFS not backing off very much in step with previous runs. Very low snow levels and FEET of mountain snow. Excellent. Now, let’s see the GEM and/or EURO get on board.

  19. Jason Hougak says:

    Fog, blah! That’s still 26 days of fog for this fall winter so far. Come on February save us from drought and wildfire.

  20. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    18z GFS operational very nice. Very much like the 12z and timing moved ahead 18-24 hours to. Important to note that.

    Hoping to see improvements on the Ensembles. Whether that means a pattern change to cooler, wetter with mountain snow, or colder, modified arctic air and the threat for low land snow that’s fine too as long as there is precip.

    • Sapo says:

      Yeah, the 18z ain’t bad. At least it’s an improvement over this weather with wintry looking temps.

    • Sapo says:

      Operational has it barely getting cold enough for snow when cold air comes. And at least the GFS ensemble has a few members in that -6/-7c range.

  21. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Model breakdown in a nut shell(walnuts?)

    12z GFS operational. Great run. Pattern change begins before day 10. After day 10 it looks much colder and potentially snowy down to the low lands.

    12z GFS Ensembles. Definite improvement noted. Several more members dipping below -5c some even colder.

    12z EURO in disagreement with the GFS. Ridge breaks down and slides inland towards the intermountain west leaving us in a weaker splitty flow.

    12z GEM ridgy

    Onto 00z. I’m sure it will be 5-7 days before any pattern change for the end of the month into February is revealed.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      A winter with bookends. That would be believable. Then, on to the inevitable spring rains. A couple of cold spells at either end of winter, then a rainy spell to put out the doubt we live near the Northern Pacific, IE, US, not the Southern Pacific, IE Chilean desert. Then, on to a spectacular NW summer that begins in the middle of May, a couple of thunder storms and burrito wrappers, and last until Nov. 1st…Hey it’s my dream!!!!

    • W7ENK says:

      A winter with bookends…

      November 23-24, 2010
      February 23-26, 2011

      It wouldn’t be the first time.

  22. geo says:

    Hmm. Nice and calm and frosty here in sw gresham this morning then about 20 minutes ago or so the east winds broke thru frost is all but gone and very blustery. The 10 o’clock obs at troutdale showed no east wind but a 5mph west wind interesting.

  23. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    06Z/12Z GFS continue to advertise a pattern change (to cool & wet) around the 28th of this month. Looks promising for mountain snow in the PNW.

  24. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Clear (well, some high clouds) and frosty here in Kelso this morning

  25. Sapo says:

    Good, I’m seeing plenty of members around -6/-7c from Jan 30-Feb 3 in the GFS Ensemble. Some good precipitation too.

  26. Marcustheweathernut says:

    The fog is gone :). !!!!!!!! What happend we have no Sind ???

  27. alohabb says:

    If you want sun and spring like conditions head to the coast. Newport the last 2 days has been 60 and sunny! It is absolute awesome!

  28. I don’t want to jinx this, so I’m going to say it very quietly…it’s not foggy here this morning, for the first time since Monday…

  29. schmit44 says:

    1/17/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:78 at YELLOWSTONE MTN.(3080 ft)
    Low: 56 at BURNT RIDGE(2955 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:23 at NYSSA(2172 ft) & NPOWDR(3212 ft)
    Low: 1 at MAZAMA (4596 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 56 degrees
    CRANE PRAIRIE (61/5 ) (5500 ft )

  30. karlbonner1982 says:

    No strong inversions in February? Not even early February? What’s in your pipe Mark?

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I tend to notice more in March than in February, at least in Hillsboro. Many days in February were fog-less.

  31. Ron says:

    Lots of sun in Astoria. I’ve lived in NW Oregon for 35 years, and I’ve never seen a winter like this.

  32. bobbylbnt1 says:

    We need a really good storm in here!!!

  33. paulbeugene says:

    Yuk. Sun sneaked in parts of town here in Eugene for a brief period during afternoon otherwise been smothered by fog for most of this week and will be for another week. Might as well live on Titan.

  34. Trish Lilley says:

    I’m in Fisher’s Landing (Vancouver eastside), and we’re totally socked in with some really dense fog. And I love that it’s chilly out. =)

  35. boydo3 N Albany says:

    But but but I’m sure we’ve hit a record here in this part of the Valley.!!

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      We’re heading to the coast for a couple days. This stuff stinks, burns the eyes, and is just plain cold and depressing. Looking forward to the “Big Switch” in February!

  36. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Not sure I’ve ever seen Corbett gusting to 60mph and calm at Troutdale with a decently robust -8mb TTD-DLS gradient.

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