ECMWF Weekly Maps

The usual, 4 maps showing upper-level heights and height anomaly for each of the next 4 weeks.  It’s from the ensemble runs of last night’s ECMWF.  Interesting that the western ridge seems to disappear around 11-15 days from now.  Not sure exactly what happens after that though.  February MIGHT start a bit wetter…maybe.

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

18 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps

  1. David B. says:

    Maybe a birthday snowstorm for me on the 9th?

  2. karlbonner1982 says:

    Here’s an idea to stew on: Suppose we don’t get much rain between now and Valentine’s Day. Then we get another strong upper-level ridge the 2nd half of February. Would the much drier than average water table and soil make it easier to get sunshine and a good false spring, than it would if we got a late February ridge after a “normal” winter?

    What comes to mind of course was late February 2005 which came on the heels of a dry winter. Spots in the central Willamette Valley got up to 65-70 degrees despite overnight lows in the upper 20s!

  3. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z EURO full run
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    The demise of the unbreakable western ridge? Obvious retrogression of the PV as the flow bends around quite sharply in British Columbia and Alberta. The cold air gets oh so close, but as the “head” of the block is pinched off southwesterly flow tries to move into the picture. This shoves the cold air back up into the Canadian prairies. At least a pattern change is showing up before day 10 now.

  4. Boomer In Vancouver says:

    In February sounds about right. I was out of town for the cold in December and I’ll be gone again for half of February. If my leaving the area is what brings the interesting weather I guess I will do what I can for the cause.

  5. schmit44 says:

    1/16/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:82 at FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543 ft)
    Low: 68 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:25 at NYSSA(2172 ft)
    Low: -2 at DIMLKE (4726 ft ) & MAZAMA (4596 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 50 degrees
    CRAZYMAN FLAT (59/9 ) (6100 ft )

  6. Jason Hougak says:

    Awe ya February action… who’s be calling it. Record dry strange PNW winter about to turn, winter may have been down lately but no out, round 12 is closing in. Come on winter deliver a knockout!

  7. W7ENK says:

    Looks like the East wind has subsided.
    So much for my yard drying out…

    DENSE FOG ADVISORY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    905 PM PST THU JAN 16 2014

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/13995281

  8. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Hmmmmmmmmm. Interesting

  9. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Looks like a lava lamp 🙂
    First?

  10. Ron says:

    Some stormy weather (finally) in week four? My fingers are crossed!

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