Afternoon Update: A Rainy & Windy Night Ahead

4:30pm Friday…

Just checked satellite pic and latest model info…everything is still on track for some strong wind at the coast and gusty wind here in the valleys the next 24 hours.

The highlights:

  • Turning windy and very warm overnight.  Temps remain near 50 or even warm well into the 50s
  • Heavy rain doesn’t really get going until after midnight.  So more dry than wet until 1am or so.
  • Strongest wind at the coast around 1am, a lull, then it picks up again around sunrise.
  • Strongest wind in the valleys between 1am-4am, then it quiets down towards sunrise.  Back to gusty again (but not as strong) the rest of Saturday
  • Rain to snow in the Cascades around sunrise, then heavy snow the rest of Saturday through early Sunday.
  • 15-25″ likely by the time it dies down Sunday evening.

Details are in the graphics:

MarkWarnings_Wind_Coast_Valleys_EastToo

MarkWarnings_Wind_Coast_Valleys_East2

Look at the latest satellite picture:

201401110000

wrf_big_4pm

The surface low shows up nicely around 145W (way out there) and 47N.  That’s just about where it’s supposed to be according to models, maybe just a touch south.  But not enough to have an effect on a forecast.

We get two strong surges of wind, one between the warm front this evening and just ahead of the cold front that moves onshore around 1am.  That may or may not be the strongest for both the coast and the valleys.  That’s because with this particular storm we have a huge wind field moving onshore with the occlusion well behind the cold front.  That’s the 2nd chance for strong wind during the daytime.  I left peak gusts at 40-50 mph in the valleys due to a relatively weak OLM-EUG gradient of 10 millibars with the cold front.  But then the gradient ramps up to around 15mb midday.  We could easily see a peak gust around 50mph here in the valleys with the showers tomorrow; at that time it should be a real gusty wind with calm periods mixed with the strong wind.   So one spot may have a peak gust of 50 but another only gets 38.  My prediction is a gust to 42 mph at PDX.

Gusts above 40 will definitely do some natural tree pruning in our area since we’ve had such weak wind this winter.

The strong westerly wind behind the cold front runs right into the Cascades….which equals BIG DUMP OF SNOW!

Here is our RPM forecast:

RPM_SNOWACCUM

It forecasts 15-20″, almost all of it above 4,000′.  The UW WRF-GFS is heavier:

or_snow48.60.0000

forecasting 20-30″!  It’ll be interesting to see if this is enough to get the lower ski areas operating…I hope so!

Enjoy the stormy weather because the following 7-10 days look real quiet.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

88 Responses to Afternoon Update: A Rainy & Windy Night Ahead

  1. Char says:

    Is winter over, I mean outside of rain ?

  2. Jeff Raetz says:

    my peak was 35mph here in oak grove and my rain is 0.76″ and counting and I have been hit dead on with some cells

    parents peak in happy valley was 38mph with 0.45″ of rain and counting.

  3. alohabb says:

    35mph max gust here in Aloha early this morning. Should get interesting with slightly higher gusts later today

  4. Stephan Miller says:

    Here in McMinnville we got none of the advertised weather. Almost no rain and very mild breeze all night.

    What happened?

    I read all of these discussions and it sounded like something was going to happen but it’s actually a very nice day out there right now.

    How did it go from giant, windy, rainy storm to nothing at all?

    • chiefWright (Marquam) says:

      Overnight QPF was never very much relative to typical winter storms, and it was even lighter than predicted. The coast took the brunt of the wind before and during the FROPA, as usual. The valley & PDX got a bit higher wind than predicted. McMinneville private stations were indeed relatively calm overnight, though McMinneville airport did gust over 40 MPH last night.

      But it ain’t over ’til it’s over. The dreaded bent-back occlusion is just starting to whip its tail, and radar/WV suggests there’s still some juice out there. Radar in particular is pretty interesting; much more of a streaky pattern than a popcorn pattern.

    • Got a pretty decent downpour here in Aloha around 9 to 10, and the cloud structure is building up again. Wind this morning was enough to wake me up around 4:30, and as I am typing this the wind is picking up again.

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