Stormy Friday Night and Saturday

11pm Thursday…

Hard to believe, but this winter has been so slow we haven’t even seen a 40 mph gust (from a southerly direction) in Portland!  The last time that happened was during that strange stormy week in late September.  Weird.

Anyway, we finally have a decent system coming in Friday night and Saturday morning.  We don’t have a deep surface low pressure system tracking close to our area, so it won’t be a massive storm.  But still, gusts 60-75 mph are likely at the Coast and 40-50 mph here in the valley, more likely 40-45 mph in the Portland area.  In a normal winter this would just be mildly interesting, but once again we have a very slow winter, so weather people (and news folks) get all excited about it.  This storm is forecast to have a very large wind field around it, so after a burst of strong wind with the cold front after midnight tomorrow night, expect a long period of gusty post-frontal wind all day Saturday.  It’ll be a classic downpours, brief sunbreaks, and gusty wind day.

As for the mountains, we sure had some big totals:

SK MT HOOD SNOW

A solid foot or more above 4,500′ last night and this morning.  I noticed only 2-3″ fell down at Gov’t Camp, showing how the snow level just barely dropped to 4,000′.

The snow level takes a big jump for Friday, ski early or you’ll get wet.  By evening (night ski time), it should either be raining lightly or at least dry, but temps up around 40.

The strong westerly flow should produce HUGE snowfall totals during the day Saturday and there will be a bit more through Sunday:

MarkSnow_MtHoodFcst_2013

What happens beyond this weekend?  Back to ridging and dry (or mainly dry) for all of next week.  Models are trying to flatten the ridge a little bit NEXT weekend to bring in rain.  Still, a warmer than average pattern.  Big picture?  It appears both 00z GFS and GEM models keep some sort of ridge along the West Coast for the next two weeks, but just allow a little more flow through it.  Here is the 360 hour 500mb anomaly forecast for both:

gfs

can

I’ve only seen two 0.5″ snowfalls so far this winter at my home at 1,000′.  That’s the lowest I’ve recorded in 7 years, even worse than the El Nino winter of 2009-2010.  Hmmm, not good.

Chief Meteorologist

51 Responses to Stormy Friday Night and Saturday

  1. Jeff Raetz says:

    My feeling as of NOW is PDX will see gusts in the low 40s tomorrow afternoon

    Milwaukie aka the dome will have gusts in the low 20s tomorrow

  2. Model Rider says:

    Was thinking the same thing Rob when I saw the low going ese. I’m sure it will go as tracked tho. Something to keep an eye on tho hmmmmmmmmmm…….

  3. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    3:34 PM Update
    Water Vapor Imagery reveals something interesting, perhaps a new wrinkle. The now very impressive low around 978-980mb is quite a bit further south than modeled currently, but looking at the circulation it likely will swing E-SE, then pivot around before leveling off due eastward somewhere near 50 N. The exact trajectory and track in relation to the 130 W line is critical as well as to where the placement of the back-bent occlusion swings inland.
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12

    IR Loop also shows that ESE-SE movement continues, but it’s going to pivot around leveling off eastward fairly soon.
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+12

  4. vernonia1 says:

    off topic & no clear skies here…..but maybe in Seattle???

    A solar flare that erupted on the sun this week could intensify the northern lights Thursday and Friday (Jan. 9 and 10), and perhaps bring dazzling auroras as far south as Seattle, Chicago and Boston, space weather officials say.

    The sun unleashed an X1.2-class flare on Tuesday (Jan. 7), its first major solar flare of 2014, according to NASA. The X-class is reserved for the most intense flares and the effects of this solar storm are expected to hit Earth Thursday.

    See more at: http://www.space.com/24224-intense-solar-flare-northern-lights.html#sthash.qACUyl8y.dpuf

  5. Heatblizzard says:

    After a dreary afternoon yesterday and evening it is now much brighter with hints of sunshine now. Yesterday the sun sort of came out about 1pm or so but didn’t last for more ehtn a few minutes.

    Now it is earlier. I bet the storm is going to peel apart the moment it starts to enter land. We will all be staying awake waiting for it to happen that never comes except maybe a quick burst or two.

    Those of us who is not afraid to face reality will ask “Is that it or will we get the full brunt later” while those who cling to fantasy will try to reassure us thru hype that the worse is yet to come.

    Those who are more conservative about predictions as usual will get pushed to the sidelines as the arguing continues. As such history repeats itself.

    If one thing history has taught me is that human kind are creatures of habit and are easily predictable except for the stray albino donkeys most are predictable like an open book once you get to know their patterns.

  6. David B. says:

    Plenty blustery up here between midnight and sunrise, but that’s easy to get when you’re on an island.

  7. pappoose in scappoose says:

    It’s GOLU time. Where’ll it go, does anyone/everyone know?

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12

    • Heatblizzard says:

      What is GOLU? Is that the term for the water vapor imagery model?

    • poolsidemike says:

      GOLU = the one and only true model that never lies…ever:

      Go Outside Look Up

      Love your post Heatblizzard….right on!

      One other thing…..let’s remember that many days ago, “Kenny” predicted a very strong storm for Saturday and some of you laughed it away as wishful nonsense. For his benefit, (plus I like wind!) I hope it does something fun! If anything comes of this next 24 hours I propose we name the storm “Kenny” in his honor!

    • JJ78259 says:

      Yes you are so correct poolside Mike, Kenny did predict this storm many days ago even Mark Nelson told him to calm down even before the weather pros where commenting on it. Hats off to Kenny!!

    • Lurkyloo says:

      To me, Kenny is confusing. I can’t figure out if he’s really smart, insanely optimistic, trolling, hoping, reading tarot cards, living in lala land, or what? Maybe all of the above. He does make me laugh with his “OMG!” and “SCORE” and “Score!Score!Score!” posts. Where you at, Kenny?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      The problem is that “Kenny” has predicted many storms and snowfalls. If you do so every other day, eventually one will be right.

  8. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Still only standing at 5.00″ for the total so far this snow season here. Shockingly low.

  9. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    I didn’t realize the NWS were such impresarios. But when ya gotta bang out the AFD in the wee hours of the morning with a classic winter storm inbound during the dullest winter in years, maybe it gets the artistic juices flowing:

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    237 AM PST FRI JAN 10 2014

    SYNOPSIS…AFTER A WEEK OF CLOUDS AND RAIN…IT APPEARS CURTAINS WILL RISE ON THE FINALE.
    …..
    ACT 1. ENTER THE WARM FRONT.

    ACT 2. ENTER THE COLD FRONT.
    ……
    ACT 3.ENTER THE COLD POST-FRONTAL AIR.

    ROCKEY.

  10. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Batten down the hatches and hunker down!
    Quick men, gather up the women and children…move them to a safe place!

  11. Jason Hougak says:

    At last the PNW is all colored up with watches and warnings on the National Weather Service map… phew

  12. W7ENK says:

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/13859842

    I really don’t believe it’s going to be warranted here in the valley once this is all said and done. I feel it’s played up just a tad, except for maybe the far West side in areas like Polk and Yamhill Counties. Even by their own scale, this is slightly on the low side of marginal. I expect to see this canceled prematurely once things don’t materialize as first thought.

    We shall see…

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I bet it hits all of 42 mph at PDX tonight.

    • Sifton says:

      Was gonna say the B word last night (bust), but didn’t want to be Debbie Downer to all the weather ‘action’ starved people out there….

    • W7ENK says:

      You’d give it that much, Mark? I think winds at PDX will top out sub 40 mph (38, 39-ish?) sometime around 8-10 am before dropping off gradually. NWS cancels the Wind Advisory by 2-4 pm when they realize nothing more is going to happen.

      Peak wind at my place might reach 18 mph, probably more like 11 mph.

  13. Gusted to 49 mph last night on my wx station. Expecting higher gusts tonight.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Need to be on the lookout for the “poisonous tail of the bent-back occlusion”!
      From Seattle AFD.

      THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL BRING A RATHER STRONG BENT BACK OCCLUSION THAT DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING.

  14. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Run for your lives! Okay, not really, but we may see a decent-good event yet!

    URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    349 AM PST FRI JAN 10 2014

    …STRONG STORM WILL IMPACT REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING…

    .THE STRONGEST STORM SYSTEM SO FAR THIS WINTER WILL BRING STRONG WIND TO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST AS WELL AS THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.

    A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT. THIS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL RISE AND FALL AT TIMES…WITH STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM SATURDAY. WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY….GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE…AND PEAK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

    LOWER COLUMBIA-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-

    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ST. HELENS… HILLSBORO… PORTLAND…OREGON CITY… GRESHAM… TROUTDALE… SALEM… MCMINNVILLE…EUGENE…CORVALLIS…ALBANY…LONGVIEW…
    KELSO…VANCOUVER…BATTLE GROUND… CAMAS…WASHOUGAL
    349 AM PST FRI JAN 10 2014

    …WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM SATURDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA I-5 CORRIDOR…CLARK COUNTY…AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY… WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY.

    WINDS: SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SOUTH 15 TO 30 MPH…WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS GRADUALLY EASE SATURDAY EVENING.
    TIMING: PEAK SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM SATURDAY. ANOTHER PEAK BURST OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 1 PM AND 6 PM SATURDAY.
    LOCATIONS INCLUDE: EUGENE…CORVALLIS…SALEM…PORTLAND…VANCOUVER…AND…
    KELSO.
    IMPACTS: SOME TREE DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE…AS WELL AS SPOTTY POWER OUTAGES.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE.

    &&

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      6z GFS features a 3hr pressure rise of 7mb not too shabby and that may really kick up the winds.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I know you have a direct line to the the Gorton’s Fisherman, Rob.
      What’s he telling ya?

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Obviously he’s complaining of a sore neck, really needs to look the other way more often.

  15. schmit44 says:

    1/09/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:53 at Gold Beach (US 1( 60 ft)
    Low: 48 at W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:24 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 15 at HOWARD Mt Howard (8150 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 20 degrees
    Rye Valley(I-84 (48/28 ) (2230 ft )
    Weatherby Rest A (46/26) (2390 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.00″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    1.75″ at Mount Hood Meado(5249ft)

  16. Model Rider says:

    A little strange Mark that you would post 360 hr maps. I thought we were taught not to really look past a week, remember, only 10 days out!!. Anyways, just hoping for a big swing in the models the next few days.

  17. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Foist?

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