Lots of Rain and Wind Ahead

It’s been a very quiet 5 weeks in Western Oregon…since early December we’ve seen no period featuring rainy and windy weather systems.  It appears that we have one week of action (this week), and then it’s back to boring weather again for next week and beyond.

One cold front moves through tomorrow afternoon; expect to get real wet at that time, similar to what we saw midday today except it’ll last a bit longer.  We’ll see a breezy south wind with tomorrow’s front, but wind gusts should be in the 20-30 mph range, maybe a little higher.

Much stronger wind comes with a powerful Pacific storm system moving through the area late Friday through Saturday.  This one will feature very warm air ahead of a cold front later Friday through about daybreak Saturday, then lots of cooler showers and wind behind the front during the day Saturday.  A classic surge of rain in the mountains followed by heavy snow as strong and colder westerly wind runs into the north-south oriented ranges.  Peak wind gusts look to be in the 40-50 mph range with this system during that time west of the Cascades.  Certainly not high-wind warning material, but since we haven’t seen a south wind gust over 25 mph in Portland for 5 weeks (that’s weird), it’ll cause a few issues.

I expect 2-3″ of rain before we dry out next Monday, not enough for flooding, but a much-needed soaking.

How about the mountains?  Avoid the times ahead of the cold fronts, especially Friday, and aim for the post-storm days.  Thursday and Sunday look great to me.  Saturday should be fine too, but heavy snow will be falling.

MarkSnow_MtHoodFcst_2013

Will this be enough to open up some more resorts?  Maybe or maybe not.  Looks like Skibowl, Hoodoo, and Willamette Pass are starting from just about zero again, so 20″ or so might not do it.  IF we avoid getting significant rain Friday that would help avoid disturbing some of tomorrow night’s snow base.  We’ll see.

Note the 3 day snow forecast from the WRF-GFS, showing a solid 18″+ around Mt. Hood from Thursday through Sunday mornings:

or_snow72.108.0000

Why do I think we will return to the mild upper-level ridging pattern?  Take a look at the 12z ensemble chart and earlier 18z GFS chart; they both show above normal temps through the foreseeable future after this weekend.

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Those that called for some sort of exciting cold or snowy weather in January are going to be disappointed, unless it happens the last few days of the month.  All models continue to show a general ridging pattern for the next two weeks at least.  Take a look at the 500mb height anomaly maps from the 00z GFS, 12z GEM, and 12z ECMWF…all hold onto ridging nearby.  There is one change from a few weeks ago, the ridging now seems to want to be over us or even a little to the east.  That’s not good for avoiding rain in the Cascades.  Seems to me some sort of warm rain event is more likely in the next two weeks than any snow below 4,000′ (after this weekend).

can

gfs

ecm

So enjoy and savor the rain and wind this week; plus no frost and mild afternoon temps too.  No, winter isn’t over, but I don’t see any cold/snowy winter weather along the West Coast for the next couple of weeks.  Who would have thought we’d see these conditions in a neutral or cold side of neutral winter as we head into the middle to 2nd half of January?

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

121 Responses to Lots of Rain and Wind Ahead

  1. JJ78259 says:

    75 and sunny for San Antonio this weekend looking forward to it, it has been a long Polar Vortex type of winter!

  2. Teresa Long says:

    …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
    LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON…NORTH OREGON…AND
    CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER
    STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY
    NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

    TIMING…HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY
    MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
    ACCUMULATION…TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET LIKELY…WITH
    THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT THE SKI RESORTS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
    SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
    SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
    SNOW LEVELS…SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 6000 TO 7000 FEET FRIDAY
    EVENING…BUT DROP TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY
    MORNING.
    WIND…WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT PASS
    ELEVATIONS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY. MUCH STRONGER WIND
    IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS ABOVE SKI RESORTS WILL RESULT IN WHITE-OUT
    CONDITIONS.
    IMPACTS…TRAVEL OVER THE MAJOR HIGHWAY PASSES WILL BECOME
    INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
    TRAVELERS SHOULD EXPECT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND SNOWPACKED
    ROADWAYS.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
    SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
    CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

    This weather forecast is from kptv website. It makes it sound as if Portland is going to get hammered with snow! Doesn’t anyone read these?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      It’s for the Cascades. Don’t want to sound like a jerk, so don’t take it wrong, but the header says it’s for the Cascades.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Also Portland is Valley elevation, 100-200 feet? This statement includes elevations down to 2500 feet upwards.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      I could only hope and pray this warning will occur for downtown in February…

  3. Jason Hougak says:

    Climate prediction center has the entire west “under the influence” of that dreaded ridge with above average temps. At least precip will be below well average, which will help our snow not just wash away by the pineapple express. The above average temps will lead everyone into thinking of an early spring then “wammo” old man winter awakes and remembers he forgot about us for two months. I feel a February snowstorm mid month.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Well I FEEL a busted winter for everyone. 😉

      ’till next year!

    • geo says:

      I’m with you Jason!

    • Jason Hougak says:

      I took full advantage of fresh mtn snow and hit Timberline for freshies 🙂
      All I can say… it’s about time! Driving up was winter conditions with blowing and steady snow. Snow level was a Silent Rock or what’s left ofnit since the decapitated it for road work years ago. Snowpack is still dismall, even with the goods delivered vegetation still pokes through on the edges of runs. This weekends storm should help… a bit. At least the ridge forecast to redeveloped will be warm and dry, not warm and wet. Looking forward to the next powder alert!

  4. pappoose in scappoose says:

    “Here is the forecast chart for 1pm Saturday — the start of the game”

    http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Mother-Nature-gives-shout-out-to-12s-in-blustery-Saturday-forecast–239462541.html

  5. Sapo says:

    Look’s like Mount Hood’s got some decent snowfall so far.

  6. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Latest from our pals at the National Weather Service. I’m only posting the goodies regarding the potential Wind Event.

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    310 PM PST THU JAN 9 2014

    MODELS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE INCOMING STORM FRI NIGHT AND SAT…AND AS SUCH HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MODELS. A THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS ON THE COAST COMES INITIALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT FRI EVENING…AND PEAKS WITH A COASTAL JET WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT. THE UW WRF GFS SUGGESTS PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 65 KT ON THE COAST BY 09Z SAT…WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST MODEL. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS IN THE WRAP AROUND PART OF THE LOW APPEAR TO ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS DURING THE DAY SAT…ESP OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COAST. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE THREATS…WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME…BASICALLY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. THE INTERIOR IS NOT LIKELY TO ESCAPE WITHOUT WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONG N TO S GRADIENTS IN THE MODELS BUT AT THIS POINT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY BE THE BETTER GUESS FOR NOW.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Sounds like what some of us have been saying really. Possibility for Wind Advisory level gusts in PDX metro, Willamette Valley. This was never going to be a Wind Storm, rather a decent event and certainly far more active than anything we’ve seen in a long while.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Well, that isn’t encouraging, but who’s surprised? Not me.

      If this verifies(and it probably will) you can stick a fork, spoon, and knife in Winter. Done. Over. See ya.

      ….unless something changes drastically over the next 2-3 weeks.

    • W7ENK says:

      Not if you want it to stick around for any length of time. Besides, March snow is pretty rare around here. Sure, it happened two years ago, but I wouldn’t realistically expect to see it again anytime soon…

      The forks were firmly stuck in about 4 weeks ago, once all that arctic air left our region. That was it. PNW Winter 2013/14 lasted ~9 days. Welcome to early Spring. I can’t wait for that first 70+ degree sunshiney day! Maybe by the first week of March?

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Remember this is Crapuweather we’re talking about, not a reliable news source. I view it the the Old Farmers Almanac. Entertaining but not trustworthy.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      True, but their regional experts are pretty good, not to be confused with Crappuweathers god awful forecasts. Brett’s pretty decent, and I believe he’s a big EURO guy relies on it quite a bit.

  7. Model Rider says:

    I for one am really tired of hearing about the polar vortex on the east coast. The media needs to stop with it. Most people have no idea what the pv is and think ots more of them naming the cold. And by the way, the pv never got all the into the states anyways. Geez

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      The only thing worse is the global warming nonsense.

    • David B. says:

      The evidence for global warming is in long-term averages.

      Claiming that an episode of below-normal temperatures disproves global warming or that an episode of severe weather proves it is equally unscientific.

  8. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    As long as 00z doesn’t back off sending the low further north, weaker gradient, or weakening the low sooner we should be good to go for a decent event.

  9. It’s actually nice to have the rain…especially knowing there is snow in the mountains at least for now.

    43 degrees just 0.06 for the day so far.

    1.41″ for the month. I did have more than that on December 1st…

  10. slim1357 says:

    “warm rain event ”

    This seems to be the forecast every time I book lodging on Mt Hood. Guess what weekend I’m going to be there this year? Hopefully it wont be anything like January 2011.

  11. alohabb says:

    Stormy day along the beach. Hasnt been like this in a while.

  12. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Hahaah! Beware the “poisonous tail of the bent-back occlusion”!!!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    226 AM PST THU JAN 9 2014

    COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SAT AM…LIKELY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM. ONCE THE HAPPENS…STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EASE BACK…TEMPORARILY. AS THE SURFACE LOW ROLLS INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND ON SAT…THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION ZONE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE S WASH AND N ORE COAST SAT AFTERNOON. THESE MORE LIKELY TO BRING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO COASTAL AREAS AND COAST RANGE AT THAT TIME. EITHER WAY…WITH ALL THE RAIN…COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS… SUSPECT WILL HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TREE DAMAGE AND DOWNED POWER LINES FOR COAST AND COAST MTNS REGIONS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. LIKELY TO SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS UP AND DOWN THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT…WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH LIKELY.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
      335 AM PST THU JAN 9 2014

      TO ADD TO THE EXCITEMENT…WINDS WELL OFFSHORE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE IN THE BENT BACK FEATURE ALONG 46-48N.
      THE WAVE WATCH MODEL PICKS UP ON DYNAMIC FETCH AND SHOWS WAVES 30-45 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
      EVENING. WITH A PERIOD OF 17-18 SECONDS…THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING AND VERY HIGH AND ENERGETIC SURF ON THE WASHINGTON COAST.

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      Surfs up dude! btw, I saw a piece this morning about huge waves off the coast of Ireland. “The Black Swell”!
      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25637407

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I really like a energetic surf!

  13. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Incoming!!!! Haha

  14. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Wind Advisories looks very possible Friday after 11 PM through Saturday morning…

    00z WRF ramped things up just a bit further. Real impressive low bottoms out around 968mb and this sends a strong warm-cold front combo into the area. The wind field is quite impressive and gradient quite strong too. PDX-EUG gets up around 8-10mb. That’s into the strong criteria. Gusts 40-50mph sounds like a pretty good forecast as Mark has gone with. 4km Windgust model verifies this too.

    00z WRF 4km Time Height section looks pretty impressive.

    50kts quite close to the surface.

    We’ll need to keep an eye on future runs of the WRF to see exactly how deep the low is, when it begins to occlude and weaken, and how strong the gradient it.

    • W7ENK says:

      Not anymore. Latest run takes the low WAAY to the North and WAAAY too far offshore to give us anything appreciable. Shows gusts at the surface in the valley between 20 and 30 kts max, almost universally. Too much Westerly component to make it notable or worthwhile.

      Like so many times before, it’s over before it even gets started. Just another wet and breezy day in the PNW.

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      Wet and breezy beats the cold fog.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Beats it in a big way, boydo.

    • dharmabum says:

      Just another? I’ll take it!

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      The low track hasn’t changed the past 4 runs now. It’s always been well to the north peaking just inside 130 W and tracking due east towards southern Vancouver Island.

      12z WRF shows no changes with that. Time Height section still shows 50kts very close to the surface.

      Good for gusts 35-45mph perhaps a few higher gusts in localized areas. Wind Advisory possible

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Northern-central* same track as 00z.

    • W7ENK says:

      I (respectfully) beg to differ, low track is clearly 50-75 miles further offshore than it had been showing, and it’s now shown making a beeline for QCI.

      WRF started backing away to this solution last night. It was just one run, make that two now.

    • W7ENK says:

      My best guess (I can’t rightfully call it a forecast, I’m not a meteorologist) would be winds gusting 25-30 in the central/Northern Willamette Valley, some stronger in the higher terrain and out on the West side. Probably peaking below 20 in my area — this isn’t a true South wind, too much Westerly component due to low placement so far to our North.

      I wish we could see winds upwards of 50 mph though, finally something exciting…

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Did you look at the Time Height model? Clearly well above 25-30mph.

  15. schmit44 says:

    1/8/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:58 at BUCKHORN SPRINGS(2780 ft) & MEDFORD PORT #2(1858 ft) & PROVOLT SEED ORC(1180 ft)
    Low: 50 at CW5925 Coos Bay(49 ft) & Gold Beach(16 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:25 at ALAKES Haines(7979 ft)
    Low: 17 at HEREFORD (3599 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 26 degrees
    CW2426 Warmsprin (55/29 ) (1572 ft )
    WARM SPRINGS BAS (54/28) (1563 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.26″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  16. Heatblizzard says:

    In this day of the information age there is no excuse to not be in the dark anymore.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Conspiracy has gone way too far now.

      In this day and age of science, we have proven that it is impossible for man to create weather. This weather warfare spoken of; would defy laws of physics, clearly.

    • David B. says:

      I wouldn’t say it’s “impossible”, just that it’s not currently possible with present technology at the precision and scale alleged.

      It certainly IS possible for certain weather phenomena to be human-created; jet contrails seed high-level clouds, particulate pollution can seed lower-level clouds and sometimes create light precipitation, in arctic areas ice fog is often created by human activities in the winter.

  17. Heatblizzard says:

    It’s absolutely spectacular people are still asleep to weather warfare even though doing a hard search will net tons of declassified documents explaining the concepts and what’s being worked on and has been worked on.

    Some blogs will tell you but mostly just bits and pieces to wag the dog just as much as the big guys lull people to sleep in their “Everything is fine” method.

    Just like the cartoon Make Mine Freedom from the 50s.

    • Sifton says:

      Does father share these same views I’m wondering??

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Unless I see -100 in NYC, and an EF5 tornado in LA, I’m not believing it.

      Nothing over “spectacular” has happened yet. Apparently the cold blast out east has occurred barely some 20 odd years ago. Nothing special. Moving on…..

    • slim1357 says:

      Are you talking about chemtrails without actually saying it? I am always amazed that people who are scared of clouds would come to a weather blog. You’re very brave.

    • David B. says:

      @Timmy_Supercell – That’s one of the problems with human memory; it’s so short in comparison to geological time. There have been numerous spectacular, sudden cold waves in the historical past, just not in the past 20 years or so until this present one.

      I linked earlier to stories about one in the 1830s that literally froze animals in their tracks in Illinois it came on so suddenly. Do conspiracy theorists believe the US military had “weather warfare” technology in the 1830s?

  18. yetanotherguy says:

    40 days of decent snow window left. Looking like Portland misses out on anything significant again? Too early to call it yet, but the clock is ticking down.

  19. BoringOregon says:

    Haha, Power is flashing and I was just reading about this—http://www.space.com/24201-sun-unleashes-major-solar-flare-video.html

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      Wouldn’t you know it, we get a big flare with a chance of seeing the northern lights, and now we get clouds and rain. After so many clear nights…….

    • David B. says:

      @ boydo3 – Murphy strikes again!

  20. Jason Hougak says:

    Ridge redevelops and we get mild for mid-late Jan. Everyone thinks spring has sprung then “wammo” pattern shifts week into February! Just watch. I’ll get my short sleeve shirts ready, and keep my polar jacket ready. 🙂

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      Bet your shorts on that?

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Well we are due for a February wild card and this year could definitely be it.

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      I sure hope so. I have a seasons pass to Hoodoo, thought it was a safe bet last spring when I bought it at half price

    • Heatblizzard says:

      Dad and I were just talking about if that would happen due to the semi permanent ridge that seems to be stuck.

      If we get any offshore flow to clear out the gunk could that push us into 60F territory from down slope winds?

    • Model Rider says:

      Not this time of year Kyle. Maybe in a month and a half or so

  21. David B. says:

    If you want a wild cold snap, how about one that drops the temperature from the 40s to the -20s, with an initial onset so rapid that it resulted in multiple reports of livestock being frozen in the mud?

    http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/events/ilsuddenchange.htm

    It happened in 1836.

  22. MasterNate says:

    Just more about Global warming. I’m already a believer, but interesting to watch.

    http://www.weather.com/video/how-the-polar-vortex-is-changing-43095

    • gidrons says:

      This is weather, not climate change. It happens most winters. The last few years, the polar vortex shifted over Asia. In the past, we’ve called it Arctic outbreak, or Arctic blast, etc. If you want to learn the mechanics, as opposed to the media’s dumbed down version, I recommend the forums at American Weather. They also have a climate change section that goes into all the hard data about the earth’s temperature changes.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Completely agreed 100%, Gidrons.

    • David B. says:

      Cliff Mass has a good recent post about all the unscientific hype surrounding the recent cold snap. It neither refutes nor confirms global warming (for which there is actually strong evidence, just not this particular example of extreme weather).

    • Jason Hougak says:

      There is global warming and global cooling. The Earth goes through phases we still don’t even understand. How much greenhouse gases contribute I believe is way hyped up by our media. Who knows how often in the past this ridge pattern occurred, even before records were kept. Hopefully the polar vortex and rosby waves will set up like Jan. 1950 again. I don’t believe the media, except for Mark Nelsen’s weather report… Haha!

    • David B. says:

      @Jason Hougak – Actually there is very strong evidence that the present trend is one of warming and that human-caused increases in CO2 are driving the warming.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      The polar ice cap grew about 60 percent in 2013 which was thought to continue to diminish in size. We may be actually on the brink of global cooling.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Looking at the CO2 graph I don’t doubt we do contribute to warming. There is a sharp rise but there could eventually be a sharp drop. Vehicles are getting more fuel effiecint and going hybrid. States are requiring better air quality control. These changes hopefully will start to reduce our CO2 impact.

    • Wooly Bully says:

      If one looks at the inconvenient data, there’s been no appreciable warming in 17 years, antarctic ice flows are expanding, and arctic flows are within standard deviation. Meanwhile, their climate models have been so woefully inaccurate, it makes the GFS look like an oracle. I wonder what percentage of scientists once believed the earth was flat? Maybe 90%? Maybe 95%?

    • David B. says:

      No, actually there HAS been warming in the past 17 years. It’s leveled off in the past few, but it’s not a monotonic process, as my chart shows. It’s leveled off before, then resumed increasing after a few years.

    • MasterNate says:

      The 20 warmest years globally occurred in the last 24 years. That ought to account for something. When the earth warms and cools it usually takes thousands if not millions of years, not 4 decades.

      http://truecostblog.com/2012/09/09/list-of-warmest-years-on-record-globally/

    • IceCold says:

      Ya, that sounds right. Because we have kept records for millions of years. I love it when people bring up “millions of years” because we have so much data from the cavemen. All this global warming crap is about to go away. In a few years people will be asking “What happened to the theories of global warming?” Well, they died off just like the dinosaurs. Stop drinking the kool-aid.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      “Millions”?? Where did that come from?

    • gratefulduck says:

      Hahahaha
      I love how people are so sure of human caused global warming.. we cant forecast weather more than a few days accurately due to how complex mother earths system is but we KNOW FOR FACT that what has been labled as global warming is strictly human caused and not a cycle that has repeated itself 1,000’s of times in the last 4.5 Billion years… one volcanic eruption can cause more atmospheric change than humans have done in the industrial era..
      Color me unimpressed… and now that there is an annointed cottage industry around these “facts” it isnt gonna just go away…
      you know.. there is a reason they had to rename it Global Climate Change… original was losing all its Facts

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Get on the soap box

    • MasterNate says:

      From core samples, not cavemen.

    • MasterNate says:

      I’m open minded. I’m willing to look at your scientific evidence that disputes the climate isn’t warming. Show me some.

    • MasterNate says:

      These articles certainly don’t debunk the fact that the planet has been heating up. They refer to the past decade as a pause in the rapid pace the heat is increasing. This debate will continue for decades, and that’s what it will take see where we are headed with this. I find it comical how worked up people get when someone else doesn’t see things as they do. I enjoy reading peoples views and opinions on certain topics, it broadens my listening skills but don’t get so defensive. I’m not trying to sell you something or shove it down your throat. Telling me to stop drinking Kool-Aid? Really? Thanks mature discussion.

    • Wooly Bully says:

      The salient point is that there is a 17 year pause in global warming. That’s according to the data. Of course, one may interpret data however they please. Also, climate models have been dreadfully inaccurate. My point is that at this stage “climate change” should remain a scientific discussion rather than a political one. Thank you, and have a very open minded day,

    • MasterNate says:

      I do agree with the fact that climate models are no better or even worse that the GFS at predicting long range forecasts. There are an infinite amount of variables and variable combinations that simply cant be accounted for when trying to determine the future of our climate. Like I said, we will see 30,40,50,60 years from now how it plays out. Do I think our climate is warming? Yes I do. Do I think people are part of the cause? Yes I do. How much affect do we have? I don’t think anyone could answer that. Maybe .001%? Maybe 25%? Maybe?

  23. Sapo says:

    Wow 52 degrees in government camp, it was 44 there just 30 minutes ago. Weather.com and weather apps have them forecasted for snow at 4 PM. I highly doubt that’ll happen.

  24. W7ENK says:

    NORMAL WEATHER WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    311 PM PST WED JAN 8 2014

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/13830325

  25. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    12z WRF 4km Wind Gust model suggests possible 40-45mph gusts PDX metro/Willamette Valley for late Friday Night-Saturday morning. 65-75mph for the Coast/Headlands. Not too shabby. Things could have been quite a bit stronger, but a few things like usual worked against that. The low is too far north for a favorable trajectory and it has already peaked well before reaching landfall. This will still be pretty good though.

    And for your viewing displeasure I present ….

    12z EURO full run
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    DISCLAIMER: May cause vomiting or, well I guess diarrhea, although I’d be surprised by the latter. ANYHOW, yes, it’s dreadful and awful. BUT we’re still alive and breathing and that counts for something, right? Yeah.

    12z GEM wasn’t much of a “gem” at all. See what I did there? do ya? If cow turds were a gem the Canadian model would be full of them!
    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

    12z GFS Ensembles. No improvements. There are even 4 members near or above 15c !

    Winter Cancel until at least January 25th.

    • BoringOregon says:

      Lol Rob, so 40 to 45 mph wind gusts are not bad. Got about almost 2” of rain!!

    • Drew says:

      At least the ridge looks like (to me anyway) that its getting pushed eastward after the 18th. I can live with that I suppose. As long as after the 18th we get another round of storms like this week, except colder 🙂 /fingers crossed.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Yeah, the pattern looks a bit transitory with the ridge sliding east and hopefully shortly thereafter becomes progressive again.

  26. wwm says:

    wow, it just gets worse and worse. This has to be one of the top 5 most boring winters I can remember.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      What part is boring? The -10 in Eugene. The foot of snow in Corvallis, the record breaking drought which is ongoing, the very frosty late November. A possible wind and rain storm on Saturday. This Winter at least to me has been very exciting so far. No Winter ever recorded had epic events every day of the Winter. I find it eminently fascinating the number of days the freezing level has been over 10,000 feet this Winter. Or how dry December was. Boring-not by a long shot if you ask me. Talk about boring though, here is my list of all time boring winters. 1. 1966-1967, 2. 1982-1983, 3. 1976-1977, 4.1969-1970, 5. 1996-1997. My 5 most exciting Winters 1. 1968-1969, 2. 1978-1979, 3. 1962-1963, 4. 1972-1973, 5. 1970-1971

    • W7ENK says:

      I agree with wwm, this winter has been lame. After the last several lame winters, I didn’t think it was possible for it to get any worse, but lo and behold…

      WEATHERDAN, your list is completely subjective, based on your opinion. Your opinion is also somewhat geographically specific. Yes, Eugene dropped to –10F last month, and that’s great for Eugene. Eugene also had several inches of snow on the ground that stuck around for more than a week. That’s pretty neat! I can practically count the number of individual snowflakes I’ve accumulated in my yard in Milwaukie since 2008 without taking off my shoes. I’m of the opinion, that’s pretty lame.

      Is my opinion wrong? Does this mean that wwm‘s opinion is also invalid?

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      Yeah, not so boring but just dry.

    • wwm says:

      I guess I should have been more clear… for my area, Portland area in general this has been a VERY boring winter IF you like winter weather such as snow, ice, wind, cold (which I love). I like 4 seasons with winter being “wintery” not spring like. I can say I probably speak for many other posters, I enjoy weather to be active, I like the build up and excitement of a big storm, or east wind event, anything other than fog/low clouds for 6 weeks. The bad thing about all of this is now when spring comes it will probably be cold and very wet…oh boy. anyway, to each their own.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      See Eric this is what bothers me, you state that I am invalidating wmm’s opinion then you try to invalidate mine. I gave you my opinion. The reason I disagreed with wwm is this, I find all weather scenario’s interesting. Not just “epic events”. Now that we have all expressed our opinions end of story.

    • W7ENK says:

      I didn’t try to invalidate your opinion. Actually, I acknowledged it, and even somewhat bolstered it by validating your facts, and then I offered my own.

      Nevertheless, I’m glad you recognize the irony.

  27. Longview - 400 ft says:

    According to the radar, western Washington is now under the hose.

  28. W7ENK says:

    YUCK!! 😦

    This just goes to show, all the rhetoric about El Niño this and La Niña that, it’s mostly conjecture. Mother Nature has her own plan, and she’ll do what she wants. Regardless of how well you think you’ve got her figured out, she’ll inevitably prove you wrong.

    0.48″ yesterday.
    0.15″ since midnight.

  29. orsnowgirl says:

    Thanks for the great write up. Wish the outlook was snowier for the mountains. It’s pretty bleak up there.
    p.s. Just added you to my favorite daily weather sources 🙂

  30. gidrons says:

    Its not what you like to hear but since the typhoon season ended in the Pacific, the Euro has been quite accurate.

  31. alohabb says:

    Yikes, could we be thinking of water drought this summer?

    • Heatblizzard says:

      That will be perfect for martial law to be put into effect considering the fact that DHS has stockpiled weapons sky high causing shortages.

      Looks like this summer the West Coast is going to rock n roll in a political way.

      Be prepared for a lot of wag the dog media to jump on board.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Might want to lay off the cable news for awhile HeatBliz!

    • W7ENK says:

      Wow, really Kyle?

      :facepalm:

  32. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Mark, only someone born & bred in the PacNW (or maybe just a quintessential weather geek) could say this line with a straight face:

    “So enjoy and savor the rain and wind this week”

    Good thing you’re both.

    Only 0.17 in the bucket here this morning. Looks like there was a higher concentration to the north. Not nearly enough joy, so let’s see what the weekend brings.

  33. Drew says:

    So any idea as to the root cause of this unusual weather? Just curious as I am a complete newbie about this stuff. The winter sports lover in me is just depressed daily with news of death ridge resurfacing… 😦

  34. schmit44 says:

    1/7/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:56 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft) & Gold Beach (US 1(60 ft)
    Low: 48 at Gold Beach(16 ft) & LONG PRAIRIE(1093 ft) & CTCLUSI Radar Hi(272 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:25 at NYSSA(2172 ft)
    Low: 14 at HEREFORD (3599 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 24 degrees
    ILLINOIS VALLEY (52/28 ) (1394 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.15″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    1.03″ at DW0237 Lees Camp(699ft)
    0.96″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)
    0.94″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    0.91″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)

  35. BoringOregon says:

    Well I have about a inch of rain in my rain Rain Gauge!

  36. Steve from Beavercreek 1100 says:

    You in!

  37. WestsideWes says:

    Am I in?

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