ECMWF Weekly Maps

The usual, 4 maps from last night’s ECMWF run, showing average 500mb heights/anomalies.  Each map is the average of a week.





A wet week this week, then ridging returns next week, for a week or two.  Then it’s still hinting the ridge might back off and develop farther to the northwest at the every end of the month.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

43 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps

  1. Sifton says:

    SWEET!! Looks like winter is over startin Mon. Those 50’s are sure gonna feel good………

  2. Mark (or anyone who knows), why don’t we get a polar vortex that comes down over the eastern pacific instead of the midwest? I assume it’s funneled by the Rocky Mountains to some degree, but why not slide out over the ocean (just to the west to us would be just fine). Or has that ever happened?

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      Has to due with the dynamics created by the big blue pond to our west. Lots-o-heat energy out there keeps things stirred up.
      That’s my scientific definition. I’m sure a layman could say it better….like Mark 😉

  3. BoringOregon says:

    Oh man, its raining out. And every one is driving like crap out, COME ON PEOPLE!!

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    So in the last week model run, does it seem like we could get flow going offshore from SE Alaska picking up moisture then heading down our way for some snow?

  5. Kenny says:


  6. WEATHERDAN says:

    I see nothing to indicate a big windstorm here in the Willamette Valley on Saturday. What I do see is a blustery day with winds to maybe 30-35 MPH, and maybe 1 inch of rain. That is just a normal Winter storm. Then it looks like the ridge will return for a couple of weeks. That is just about the end of January. If there is no snow in the foreseeable future by February 1st the chances of us seeing any more snow is very low. I know the snow lovers on this blog (me included) don’t want to hear it but that is the reality .

  7. Jason Hougak says:

    I love the rain… even working out in it, refreshing! 🙂

    • dharmabum says:

      We do to Jason, we will mute the tv and listen to the rain on the roof when we are indoors, and that’s after spending most of the daylight hours working outside on the farm, yes, refreshing!

  8. Marcustheweathernut says:

    12z euro….. looks like a return to the death ridge!!!!

  9. Longview - 400 ft says:

    When the weather is slow and boring
    a post from Kenny makes one smile
    and for brief moment
    forget the hum drum
    of the weather blog.

    Keep em coming Kenny.

    I used to react out loud, now I just smile.

  10. dharmabum says:

    This is fantastic weather for us outdoor enthusiasts, took my dog for a walk along the new Springwater Trail from Barton towards Estacada last evening, very peaceful and crisp! With light sprinkles this morning I’m out in the potting shed sowing seeds for Mother’s Day flower baskets, couldn’t be better weather than what I’m experiencing now! Enjoy everyone!

  11. Andrew (Beaverton, OR) says:

    Had some rain mixed with more rain coming over sylvan this morning. It doesnt appear to be sticking at this point, instead its either being abosrbed by the ground or running off into the drains.

  12. gratefulduck says:

    those maps are brutal if you like interesting weather

  13. schmit44 says:

    Someone recently asked me for past contest results on here:

    Monthly Weather Contest Archive from 2012-2013

  14. schmit44 says:

    1/6/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:59 at HORSE CREEK(3402 ft) & OCNSID Oceanside(22 ft)
    Low: 46 at OCNSID Oceanside(22 ft) & Port Orford(0 ft) & RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    High:21 at NYSSA(2172 ft)
    Low: -4 at NPOWDR (3212 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 37 degrees
    Cresent (US 97 M (47/10 ) (4455 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.26″ at TIDEWATER(2035ft)
    0.23″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    0.22″ at SOUTH FORK(2257ft)

  15. Hey Mark, I have a wonderful idea for you to blog about or talk about on TV over the next few days. You should mention some times in the past when the Polar Vortex descended into the U.S. further to the west – as in Montana/Wyoming – and what kind of outcome we got from it in the Pacific Northwest.

    • W7ENK says:

      The edge of the incredibly cold air would be even closer to our East, but still not here.

      I want the PV to drop down the West side of the Rockies and set up shop right over the Willamette Valley, but apparently that’s too much to ask for.

  16. Jason Hougak says:

    Timberline 7 day… looks amazing

  17. Heisson Rob says:

    Does week 3 suggest another big cold-snap in the central US?

  18. Kenny says:

    Score! Close to 100mph winds at 850mb 4am Saturday morning as a strong cold front moves through. This needs to be watched closely as a possible!

    • W7ENK says:

      Dude, seriously, lay off the caffeine… Jeezus.

    • BoringOregon says:

      Sweet I will look out for it!!

    • Mike says:

      I have seen it happen in NW Oregon. It’s no picnic either because of all the trees. My folks lost their car and part of their house from several trees down. The whole neighborhood looked like bombs were dropped on it.

  19. Jason Hougak says:

    Thanks mega beast ridge for killing winter in the PNW

  20. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Just heard a funny clicking noise on my sky light…looked up.. IT’S RAINING!! NOT KIDDING!! IT REALLY IS RAINING!!!!

  21. Little One says:


  22. W7ENK says:

    We can only hope that these doldrums will finally be over with by the end of the month.

    What a waste!

  23. BoringOregon says:

    Never thought I would say this. But hey I kind of Wan’t it to Rain, and hey over 22”+ of snow for the week for mt hood I’m game!!

    • slim1357 says:

      It’s about time. Wish it would stick around a little longer. Here’s to getting skibowl open and a wet wintry February.

    • BoringOregon says:

      Oh and forgot to ask. When was the last time we had over a inch of rain!?!?!

    • Reb G says:

      Hahaha for real! I was getting kind of bummed about the lame snow pack. But this week looks promising.

  24. Model Rider says:

    Last week of the month works for me!!

  25. Danny in Troutdale says:

    First!?!?! OMG I’m never first!

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