ECMWF Weekly Maps Thursday PM

You know the drill, 4 maps from last night’s ECMWF showing upper-level height anomaly for the next 4 weeks.  One map for each week:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

Looks like the ridge flattens next week, then redevelops right over us about 10 days or so out, that can be seen now on the operational maps.  After that it pushes a bit west the last two weeks, possibly colder?  We’ll see.

55 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps Thursday PM

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    Low in HIO this morning was 26 PM high so far 47. SLE low was 42, PM high was 48. Interesting. Currently SLE is 46 with a NE wind and Partly Cloudy skies. Going to be a lot colder than 42 in Salem tonight. Peace.

  2. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Awesome article about the hoopla surrounding the upcoming icy cold Green Bay vs San Fransisco playoff game. Basically a meteorologist wrote in explaining why people should go with the NWS or local TV Mets over the national outlets. Basic to us but its good to see stuff like this get out to the masses.

    http://regressing.deadspin.com/49ers-packers-will-be-cold-but-probably-warmer-than-a-1494082937/@reubenfb

    • JJ78259 says:

      How many Portland weather blog people took some of the free tickets in the nose bleed to see the playoff games this weekend to see a little snow and cooler temps? There has to be a few!

  3. WEATHERDAN says:

    OK so we don’t get epic Winters here, but what else don’t we get. Humid humid Summers where you can’t even dry your hands because of the moisture. Nights where you just can’t sleep because it never drops below 80 degrees with a dewpoint of 75. Hurricanes that wipe out cities in a matter of hours or Tornadoes in a matter of minutes. What we do get are the most pleasant Summers in the good old USA. 75-85 with low humidity and very little rain. Autumns with crisp nights and pleasant afternoons. Brilliant leaf displays that rival New England. Winters where (Usually) you can go the beach and see tremendous storms, or go to the mountains and see feet of snow. Then come back to a warm house with the power on. Springs with blustery showers one day and sunny and 70 the next. We experience all four seasons in Oregon though you may have to drive an hour or so to get to them. We have the ocean, the mountains, the deserts, the gorge, the valley. In fact we just about have it all. Now I would like to see a little more snow than we get here but it’s just not going to happen. But I am very happy to be living here. Peace.

    • Lauraholic says:

      I wouldn’t live anywhere else =)

    • David B. says:

      Agree except for the leaf displays. They hardly rival NE or anyplace else with a continental climate. You really need such a climate to bring out the best colors in the leaves and force them to turn all at once, instead of gradually over a period of months.

    • ocpaul says:

      Growing up in the Midwest spoiled me weather-wise. The summer thunderstorms were frequent, and lasted for hours. Fall
      arrived like clock work in September. The autumn leaves were spectacular, encouraged by sustained, sub-freezing temps.
      There was usually snow by Thanksgiving. It snowed all the time. One year we got 10″ of snow on May 12, my sister’s birthday.
      I like NW weather about 30% of the time. It just is not very exciting. I would give the Midwest a 65% rating. (got to take points off for the humidity) I like to see snow falling in my backyard, not 2 hours away. This is just my opinion, you are certainly entitled to yours.

  4. Model Rider says:

    Lovin the placement of the omega block in la la land on the 12z gfs. A few weeks and were in business. As long as it moves up in time as well. I know, I know, lots of ifs. As Rob would put it, I’m cautiously optimistic.

  5. Sapo says:

    6z GFS gives us some possible snow at Hr. 240. If you look at the ensemble it looks like one of the coldest members, though, so can’t trust it. Plus it’s the GFS at Hr. 240. Hopefully today’s 12z ECMWF will be good as well.

  6. alohabb says:

    The clearing gave way for late night rain to freeze making roads in Aloha a diasater! Several accidents by 209 and Grabhorn.

  7. TNelsen says:

    For us none weather geeks, what does “upper-level height anomaly” mean?!

  8. Seahawks Fan - NE Vancouver says:

    More fog here in Vancouver this morning!

  9. December and 2013 in Battle Ground (Minnehaha)

    December

    Highest High: 55.4, 1st (55.7, 1st)
    Lowest Low: 7.7, 8th (9.3, 8th)
    Highest Wind: E 22, 6th (SW 20, 1st)
    Most Precip: 1.43, 1st (0.88″, 1st)

    Total Precip: 3.43″ (2.02″, driest December ever)

    Avg High: 40.1 (40.8, tied with 2009 for coldest)
    Avg Low: 29.6 (30.6)
    Mean: 34.9 (35.7)

    2013

    Total Precip: 39.84″ (30.19″)

  10. Heatblizzard says:

    It would be nice if we had a NWS for either Astoria or Lincoln City so we can have a radar that sees approaching storms since the Portland radar cannot “see” very well over the Coast Ranges.

    Then it would provide better accuracy on split flow patterns instead of models showing two extremes before taking both away.

    It seems under split flow patterns models always struggle with two different extremes before making an agreement in the middle somewhere which is usually very little change.

  11. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z EURO shows a decent trough next weekend.
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html

    • Heatblizzard says:

      Exactly. When it comes to how powerful a split flow pattern is the models totally suck even within 24 hours.

      Then we get surprise rain events or busts which a lot of people who work outdoors such as construction or landscaping make expensive plans based on these forecasts that don’t work out half the time stated in the reasons in my upper post.

  12. MasterNate says:

    New recorded low temp on earth.

    http://www.weather.com/video/the-coldest-place-on-earth-42129

    Might need to cut and paste.

  13. Lurkyloo says:

    Cue British accent Someone please alert the authorities, as it seems I am being toyed with. There appears to be something similar to raindrops falling from the sky. But alas! In this dismal, pathetic winter of our discontent it cannot possibly be? I fear one with a tainted sense of humor is perhaps using a garden hose on my own fair property — a teasing, wretched cur!

    So it’s raining a little here … 🙂

  14. Model Rider says:

    At least progressively those maps seem to get better each week with heights rising in Alaska. I’m mean, its a little hope isn’t it?

  15. Jason Hougak says:

    Like I’ve said my bet is on February for HELP!!!
    White birthday… White birthday:)

  16. ocpaul says:

    This, from the East coast.
    “First snow, then ‘brutal’ cold for millions in storm’s path.”
    and…I’d give anything to be one of them.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      I wouldn’t say anything… let’s just be honest. I’m with you about awesome!
      Blizzard watch over western North Dakota. Where’s all our fun exciting winter weather… boring!!!

    • JohnD says:

      Seriously it is the same thing virtually EVERY year! Seemingly everywhere gets the goods except here! We’re suckers for it–the frustration that is. Believe me I know. My wife’s family reside in New England while I’m a born and raised W. Oregonian. God created weather in Massachusetts, you know? Or–unfortunately–so I’m told. Insult to injury especially in times like now (e.g. big ticket storm currently in the East while we are the big 0–uh, that would be Z-E-R-O.) BUT, somehow, I never lose hope! Played this game too long!

    • JJ78259 says:

      Someday all snow lovers will move to the snow the dome won again as it always does most of the time say except 2008 and my child hood memories that are fading fast of the late 60’s. I am looking to the the first 90’s of the Texas Warm up!

  17. Euro 12z ensemble shows negative 500 mb anomaly over PNW from 144-240 hr. I would go with that (vs ridge on the 00z euro weekly). Pattern as suggested by 12z euro and ensemble implies real pattern change with shift to cool/seasonal moist onshore pattern with snow in mts, including ski areas. Polar vortex shifting out of E canada into Alaska/E Siberia, should favor our usual pattern of rain lowlands/snow mts. I don’t foresee valley floor snow near future. But who cares, I’ll take mountain snow for now. Living above 1000 ft has been nice during the gloomy fog days, as tops generally have been <1000ft.

  18. Marcustheweathernut says:

    I see what u mean about the GFS Mark…. I’m Only riding the euro train from now on…

  19. Longview - 400 ft says:

    This is really sad to admit to but here it goes. I get my snow fix through watching Boston’s University Cam. They have had snow the last couple of days and are expected 6 – 10 inches tonight.

    Yeah baby!!!

    I have been watching on and off the last couple of years.

    Maybe something in the middle of January for us.

    I will not fork anything until March 15th.

    Happy New Year everyone.

  20. WEATHERDAN says:

    Mark I have a question for you even though it is kind of silly. Here goes-at 3:26 my post was the first on your blog, that I’m sure of. Then I turned back a few minutes later and somebody else had a post at 3:25. How is that possible? I wouldn’t have put down first if it wasn’t so. Peace. P.S when I posted again at 3:35 there were 3 posts, 2 of mine and 1 from Eric. The one from Michael was not there at 3:35PM. Just curious is all. Peace.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      The first one was held in moderation until I saw it later. I don’t delete posts unless they are offensive or obnoxious. Or if it’s a long drawn out drama session by a bunch of people.

  21. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Well, at least this leaves the door slightly ajar for cold/snow chances late January-early February.

    #cautiouslyoptimistic

  22. Wooly Bully says:

    Anyone got a fork? It’s all over but the crying.

  23. BoringOregon says:

    You in!! Does the east coast warm up then?

  24. WEATHERDAN says:

    Usually by this point in the Winter I’d be climbing the walls for some dry and sunny weather. But this Winter the weather has been so bizarre I don’t even know how I feel. I like this dry weather but know we need the rain. Mainly though I just worry about next Summer. If we don’t have an adequate snow pack to produce power BPA will have to buy it elsewhere, if they can get it. And most likely at a higher price. So let’s hope the Cascades get buried in snow the next three months. I just don’t see it happening is all. But there is still hope. Peace.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      I’m with you on that WeatherDan. I love this fall/winter as far as the lack of gloom, and my arthritis has been better too as a result. But I am not liking the price to be paid for it.. Either water problems, or no summer ect. Things tend to balance out in the long run, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      No lack of gloom in this part of the world. More cold, foggy funk than usual. And at times the air burns your eyes.

  25. W7ENK says:

    Boooooooriiiiiiiing…

    :yawn:

  26. WEATHERDAN says:

    First

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