It’s Monday afternoon, which means another monthly run of the ECMWF from last night. Same thing, some sort of ridging or mild westerly flow (week 2 only) for the next 4 weeks.
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1/2/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:67 at FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543 ft)
Low: 52 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)
Coldest:
High:23 at NYSSA(2172 ft)
Low: 10 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 42 degrees
Horse Ridge (US (60/18 ) (4160 ft )
Heaviest Rainfall:
0.56″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
0.55″ at TILLAMOOK(11ft)
0.55″ at DW4118 Sandy(1250ft)
Happy New Year, Ms. Epic Doomsday Death Ridge from Hades. Farewell, Ms. Deep Pow Pow Winter Princess of Heaven, it was as if we never knew thee.
bah. Not looking good folks. We can hope for a miracle, I suppose. Of course, we know hope is a fool.
SCORE! The new 00z GFS has a snowstorm from atleast Salem northward.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KTTD
Temps cold enough for snow as OFFSHORE flow will do the job. Temps will stay in the 20s as we get hit. Lots of moisture. 0.91 for PDX so 9 inches of snow, I will take that. So 6 to 12 inches would be my forecast right now.
Looks more like a freezing rain setup, Kenny. 850mb temps never lower than -2°C during the period I think you’re referring to.
That’s even worse! Half a foot to a feet of inch is not good.
It will be all snow though because 925mb temps will be -10C. Cold layer will be deep enough for all snow.
So the GFS says another arctic blast in 10 days time?!?! I’m starting to believe it this time because I called up Miss Cleo and she says she concurs!
00z GFS
I will say this, the run tonight is the most believable and 500mb pattern progression makes sense compared to the past day or so of cold outliers, this solution seems quite reasonable.
I’m thinking the last week of January or the first week of February we’ll see more cold.
Wow. Don’t think that things are F’d up in the N Pacific?
Look at the nightmarish warm SST NE Pacific, with warmth trailing off W to near Japan. I assume that has some relationship to the monolithic ridge, be it the chicken or the egg. That isn’t going anywhere fast, and assuming that the persistence of the ridge and this warm SST anomaly reflect some sort of positive feedback self reinforcement regime, I would say there is good chance this holds through winter. Perhaps some undercutting S stream +/- arctic episode (brief) later, but odds of healthy snowpack this year appear LOW.
Here is the SST link:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/ani-weekly.html
45 years ago today, Dec 30th 1968, PDX recorded its lowest high temp ever at 14°. Wish we could repeat that winter…..Can dream I guess……..
Cool I am in! Anyway, so does anyone think the fallout from the Tsunami from Japan has anything to do with this weather pattern which has coincidentally been going for 3 years?
You know the nuclear fallout, etc.?
No. I do not.
I don’t know if the radiation from Fukushima is affecting the weather, but I do know it is contaminating our Earth and all that lives here.
Just attempting to leave a comment. I have left one in the past no problem. Trying again…
Yikes, those are some butt ugly maps on the Euro Weeklies! IF that verifies any shot of more Wintry weather just shortened significantly.
So, how will 00z GFS/EURO runs go tonight?
Snow? Cold? Rain? Drizzle? Mist? Fog? Dreary nothingness? Inversions? East wind? South wind? Pineapples? Coconuts? Floods? Arctic Blast? A pattern change to anything would be very welcomed.
Seems like Winter hates us!!!
I agree about winter 2013 being totally lame. Great arctic blast only to bring a flurt with snow. My gut is telling me February will change. I’ve lived in the foothills above Sandy since 2006 and so far February has been a weak snow month delivering little if any. Also no cold weather outbreaks. If there is any chance, my feeling is February will be it. Most annoying thing is I don’t even get paid to watch the weather… my wife wonders why I spend time looking at weather. I really don’t know why “WE” all do? Excitement… Well I hope 2014 can bring the goods we very much need in the mtns. and desire in the low country. I’m at almost 1,500 feet and have recorded only a dusting, barely measureable. Should be around 10-20 inches.
All I know from living up here for 15 years now, is that it isn’t impossible for a brief 2-3 inches of snow on the lowlands in April, and we can get hammered with moisture until June starting in March! But the multiple inches of snow that lasts for a week is going bye bye soon. What a shame.
The could’l be back soon enough.
I’m going with this thought!!
*Cold
uhhgggg.. can things really be this sucky for this long… meh
AT LEAST MY DUCKS WON!!!
What is truly perplexing to me is that some models show quite the contrary on any given run–some this, some that–some way more wintry–or not. Whatever, I guess. I get it that the trend is there (e.g. winter DOA.) But no one can say for sure yet–certainly on December 30, not even Mark Nelsen!
Please don’t cancel winter yet! My lawn just quit growing, and I don’t want it to start back yet 🙂
Yes!
Game over man, Game over (cue up Aliens scene here).
Quasi permanent ridge, with no apparent explanation… Thus the best forecast call at this point is persistence. Pattern could flip at any time, but with euro weekly as it is, you’re well into heart of winter with weakass snowpack. That is 3 winters in a row with major persistent ridge at some point. If I recall, 2011-12 had ridge in December, with fun but brief mid January snow dump WA, then cool early spring with ample late developing snowpack. 2012-2013 had quick start to snowpack late Nov/early Dec, then shutdown with January ridge/fogmageddon. Lame snow at low elevation; only saving grace was absence of atmospheric river events, thus well preserved snowpack. 2012-2013 just plain sucks. We had our brief but significant cold, fluky snow S. Valley (that was a black swan; anyone else recall similar pattern?). Now we have ridgemageddon, and abysmal ski season.
Negativity aside, I am interested in understanding what underlies our current locked in pattern.
Sorry, 2013-2014 just plain sucks…
Oh dear. This ridge is getting freakin annoying!
Winter cancel!!
Too early?
(edit by Mark) By the way, you are FIRST!!!
Maybe it’s time.
Not yet
I got a BIG fork when you give the nod!!