This Weekend: Quiet Weather

11pm Friday…

After an exciting 2 weeks, the weather is finally very slow this evening.  And, more important, there doesn’t appear to be anything interesting on the horizon.  Upper level ridging wants to remain near the West Coast or a bit farther offshore the next 7-10 days.  Slightly farther west and we’d see a cold trough drop down from the north.  Some model ensembles hint that could happen, but I don’t see anything convincing yet.  Here’s the 00z GFS ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

This pattern continues to be very dry for December.   Check out the Mt. Hood snow outlook:

MarkSnow_MtHoodFcst_2013

This implies that Skibowl and Hoodoo wont be able to open for at least the beginning of Christmas Break.  And the pathetic start to the ski season higher up at Meadows and Timberline wont get any better…sorry snow riders!

Enjoy the weekend!

85 Responses to This Weekend: Quiet Weather

  1. Ben T says:

    It’s rather funny that we are already disappointed with Winter and it is before December 21st. I understand that we are in a dry pattern. But we’ve already had really cold weather and a little snow. I understand being let down after that Arctic Blast and wanting another winter event pretty soon. I want one too. It’s hard to be patient. But we can’t be going so far as to say Winter is over. Slow down dudes and dudettes!

  2. Sapo says:

    18z GFS actually showing possible LIGHT snow accumulations in Portland Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning…It will be cold enough Thursday morning. 18z NAM not as favorable for snowflakes on Thursday. GEM is OK. This last round of model runs brings in more moisture, though. Likely we’ll see 37/38 degrees and rain before temps drop for a possible rain/snow mix Wednesday Night. Obviously no “snow event” for Portland for sure.

    • Can we have one epic mistake happen? Just once this holiday season? Okay…dreaming over.

    • W7ENK says:

      We had that one epic mistake — five years ago — the likes of which we won’t realistically see again for another 45 year’s or so, at the very least.

      My, how short our memories can be…

    • David B. says:

      Well, judging by the NWS forecasts the dusting of wet snow event is on again for Seattle. After being off again yesterday, and on again the day before that. Flip, flop, flip, …

    • Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

      If memory serves me correctly 2008 wasn’t a mistake. Maybe the end of it was but it was a well advertised event. I believe the mistake Cary is referring to is a something like what we just saw but with more snow for us northerners. Was supposed to be maybe a dusting and some of us squeezed out a bit more and I had snow on the ground here for a week. That wasnt supposed to happen necessarily.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      It was December 28, 2009. The surprise 4″ evening snow commute from hell. Instead of 34 and rain, it was 32 and snow.

    • Ben T says:

      You know those morning commute surprises tend to form together into one memory.

    • Josh Gardner says:

      Hey Erik, may want to actually read the models before making snide comments. WRF shows

      Nothing south of Wilsonville
      .5″-1.5″ in the Metro
      .5″-2″ in Clark County
      2″ to 5″ in Seattle Area

    • W7ENK says:

      Hey Josh, you may want to read rule #3 again. Last I checked, I still have the right to my own opinion, and that includes my own interpretation of the model data. Back off, kiddo.

  3. WEATHERDAN says:

    I always get a kick when a cold snap called for in the models 10 or 12 days out is called la la land. But if somebody says the models show a warm and wet period coming up 12 days out it is more accepted that it will happen. The models seem to be unreliable more than about 7 days out. Also the models change so much from day to day. One day the thickness for PDX 12 days out is 536 the next day 513 and the next day it is back to 532. I see this every Winter. This recent cold snap was no different. Back and forth for well over a week before they settled down. What will happen next week we will have to wait till next week to find out. I guess my point is to not get too exited with the models say. To update an old saying. Models are like streetcars if you miss this one another will be coming along shortly.

  4. BoringOregon says:

    Don’t be so disappointed with the Weather people, at least we some cool looking Dense Fog out there!?!!?

  5. cgavic says:

    Sunshine in sandy!!

  6. Marcustheweathernut says:

    A lot of the cold cold air to our north is non exsistant toward the end of the 00z euro…… I sure hope we don’t get a strong ridge in the sweet spot with no arctic air to our north…..

  7. schmit44 says:

    12/15/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:64 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)
    Low: 50 at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:25 at NYSSA(2172 ft)
    Low: 1 at Lakeview, Lake C (4734 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 43 degrees
    GERBER RESERVOIR (59/16 ) (4950 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.46″ at AA7OA Astoria(240ft)

  8. Marcustheweathernut says:

    Oh look at this…. No moisture left when it finally “briefly ” gets cold enough for snow….. Let’s move on to January folks…. Who knows maybe we get a wind storm, looks to be a better bet for us!!!!!

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      The world must hate Portland. And Cairo Egypt gets snow… of all places.

  9. W7ENK says:

    Anyone who actually thinks we’ll see any appreciable snowfall later this week, you’re fooling yourself. Snow level only makes it down to 1,000 feet, which gives us 37 degree rain with maybe a few flakes mixing in at the lowest elevations before precip ends, but it’s not going to snow.

    You can take that to the bank!

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Wishcasting is a rather tempting but naughty thing! 😉

    • Sifton says:

      Kenny, your thoughts please…….

    • W7ENK says:

      And now, it looks like there won’t even be any moisture, just a few sprinkles and that’s about it…

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      That’s pretty much what I said a couple days ago. Drive by cold, little snow above 1K.
      But..
      We need a good, constant NW flow and lots of crummy rain down here. Snow in the mtns. That’s what we need……

    • W7ENK says:

      It doesn’t look like we’ll even get that. I really hope things change up there soon…

    • David B. says:

      NWS has really backed off on it in their forecast discussions. They’re now hinting that Bellingham *might* get some chunky rain… if they’re lucky. That’s about it. Looks like there’s not going to be a quick shot of lowland snow anywhere later this week.

  10. prairiedog says:

    Mark (or anyone else), what are the weeklies or any longer range models showing that might give an idea of the last week of Dec. for snow in the northern WA. Cascades. From what I can put together it looks sparse for snow. Other than a possible trough coming in next weekend are we generally back to a dirty ridge for the rest of the month? If snow is going to be scarce up to the first of the new year I need to change some plans.

    • marinersfan85 says:

      Weeklies are on Mondays and Thursdays.

    • Garron near Washington square says:

      I hope you didn’t buy a season pass. I told a girlfriend to save her money, just buy the spring thing. But someone convinced her that we’d have a better early winter, and that the $500 was well worth it? Yeah if you like rock climbing with a lil skiing mixed in it’s GERRRRREAAAAT! NEVER BUY A SEASON PASS, IMO. Who wants to ski during holidays and Monday’s and Fridays’ are out too because no one has school on those days. PLUS the vast majority of good ski-able snow doesn’t seem to occur until Feb/March anyway. Again, just my opinion…

    • Dave in South Salem (500') says:

      They are cheaper and infinitely better in Colorado. Never buy a season pass in Oregon is more appropriate. $500 is insane unless it covers Mt. Hood and Mt. Bachelor

  11. Sapo says:

    GFS the driest model for Thursday morning…Most models forecast some decent precip from 1-6 AM Thursday morning. By that time we’d likely be cold enough for snow…Anybody have thoughts on Thursday?

    • Sapo says:

      Nobody is even talking about the chance of snow…I think we may see a dusting before the precipitation ends.

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      You think there’s a better chance for some light snow further north or south? I”m thinking farther south with the Wed night/Thu morning system.

      Farther north into Washington looks like a better shot for snow Friday with the system moving into the “cooler” air.

    • Sapo says:

      Farther South is correct. GFS still the driest model, forecasting just a tad bit of precipitation from Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning. The south will see the precipitation in greater amounts for sure, but still the GEM and NAM are more favorable for precipitation further North. Friday looks like a possible chance for snow further North in Washington.

  12. Model Rider says:

    Wilson for president. Seahawks are going to the super bowl in sure.

  13. JohnD says:

    ‘Can’t believe how dead the blog is. We are going into a nice NW flow by mid-week with low snow levels. ‘Seems like that would be cause for intrigue. Maybe it’s that the post arctic blahs have ensued–especially because Portland missed a big snow event out of the deal. But a LOT of winter left! My heavens, it is only December 16!

    • Chris s says:

      Tell the ski resorts that there is a lot of winter left. A few days of chunky showers next week followed by more inversion blah is just not gonna cut it. We need some gold old fashioned westerly flow with some base building snows for the mountains!!!

    • BoringOregon says:

      That’s what I was just thanking lol. Wait tell mid January, things well heat up again!!

    • Austin-East Vancouver says:

      Woah there boring I wouldn’t use heat and January in the same sentence. Might cause riots lol

    • BoringOregon says:

      *will*

  14. Just found this blog and I love it! Moved to Mac in October so don’t know what to expect from the coming winter. I will visit here to find out and contribute when I can. I’m a weather lover but being new to the region not sure what I can add to the conversation. I’ll do my best!

  15. schmit44 says:

    12/14/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:61 at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183 ft)
    Low: 46 at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:27 at NYSSA(2172 ft)
    Low: 2 at Burns Municipal (4144 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 30 degrees
    CW2849 Lakeview (36/6 ) (4682 ft )

  16. MasterNate says:

    WOW. Such dryness this time of year. Question is, will it rule our winter or will the tides change for the second half? Will we have a dry mild January and February like years past? Maybe a mild and somewhat dry spring or will January and February be cold and wet with the trend caring us into summer 2014? Hope it gets colder with much more moisture or we will be talking about drought come April.

    • davidbarts says:

      We shall see.

      I wouldn’t be surprised it it’s yet another one of those years where we have a droughty winter followed by a “March miracle” where snowpack recovers, and then on to another lingering cold wet spring. We seem to have had more than our fair share of years like that in the last decade or so.

  17. runrain says:

    Alright. You asked for it.

    Silent Blog (Sung to the tune of Silent Night)

    Silent blog,
    Boring blog,
    All have left,
    Feeling bereft

    Models all say there is nothing to come,
    No excitement, all humdrum,
    Sleep all you wish-cast-ers slee-eep,
    Weep if you must, you can weep

    Still is the night
    Raindrops in sight,
    It won’t snow,
    The wind won’t blow

    The NAM you don’t want to see-ee-ee,
    Onshore flow it will be-ee-ee,
    Here’s wishing all bloggers pea-ce,
    Wishing you all peace

  18. dharmabum says:

    Can we get a little bit real, and start relating what is truly important to us all, not just some meaningless statistics, but some interesting stories and unique views of life and weather that we all might be somewhat captivated by?.

    • Garron near Washington square says:

      We have a severe drizzle storm heading this way!! TWC gave the storm con rating of .0005 on a scale of 1-10. Ummm, yeah nothing to see here, pretty much no moisture or weather to speak of until the 1st of the year!

  19. David B. says:

    Forecast discussion is talking about Seattle area maybe getting an inch or two of snow on Friday. Of course, that’s still nearly a week out, so we shall see.

  20. BoringOregon says:

    Looks like all the action is back East. Maybe we will get some thing next week??

  21. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Freezing fog this morning in Klamath Falls. Frosted trees look pretty cool.

    Low of 15, probably will reach up to 35 today.

  22. Marcustheweathernut says:

    You can forget about a white Christmas….I know shocker!!!! All members are above 0c on the 25th… I love how the operational spikes up on the 25th… Lol http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

  23. Sapo says:

    12z GEM is wetter than 12z GFS for Wednesday Night and Thursday and definitely extends the period of precipitation into Thursday morning…Which would present around 1″ of snow for Portland. GFS, however, would bring possible scattered snow showers to the Portland area. The 12z GFS could be an outlier run, though. Still cold enough for snow, so my thought is we’ll see at least something.

  24. Kenny says:

    The new 12z GFS bottoms out at -9C Wednesday overnight for KTTD. This should be sticking snow down to sea level if there is any moisture around.

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KTTD

  25. Marcustheweathernut says:

    Here we go again 12z gfs definitely some I candy in Lala land, we’ll see???!!!!

  26. Sapo says:

    6z GFS Ensemble definitely looking cold enough for some snow on Thursday, likely starting as rain Wednesday night.

  27. Longview - 400 ft says:

    Muxpux, that is a cool site you shared!!!

    http://earth.nullschool.net/

    Mark Nelsen, what do you think?

  28. schmit44 says:

    12/13/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:60 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)
    Low: 46 at CW8449 Charlesto(322 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:23 at NYSSA(2172 ft)
    Low: -1 at Burns Municipal (4144 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 40 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (48/8 ) (5000 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.54″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  29. SnowedIn - North Plains says:

    FIRST!

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