Noon Update: Going to Be Close Far West Metro!

12:15pm…

Rain appears to be on schedule for an arrival by 1pm or so in the farthest western metro locations, and then it’ll spread to the east from that point through 2-3pm eastside.

Here are the latest temps:

PLOT_Temps_MetroYou can see who is out of the “danger zone” for freezing rain.  Temperatures are above freezing pretty much everywhere north of the Columbia River (Clark county) and east of the Willamette River (Multnomah and Clackamas counties).  And dewpoints are rising with the temps, so when rain starts the temperature won’t fall, or at least won’t fall more than a degree or two.  So most of us in the metro area will not see freezing rain this afternoon.

Lots of 29 degree temps across the south metro, but as I mentioned before, at midday/afternoon the pavement needs a temp 30 degrees or below to freeze up the liquid rain that’ll be falling onto it.  So I think those areas are also “in the clear”.  And the inversion is breaking up, thus the freezing fog/low clouds have lifted in these areas.  That helps to slightly warm the ground.

Which leaves one area in the western valleys that could start as freezing rain around 1pm or so.  As I mentioned in previous postings, the spots up against the east slopes of the Coast Range that are coldest and get the rain first:  Forest Grove, Banks, Gaston, and Hillsboro.  Western Washington county could start icy, then warm to freezing within an hour.   Or there may be patches of ice where the pavement has been shaded more the past few days, but not in spots that had sunshine.  Be careful out there if it happens!

Of all the places to warm up, Eugene has finally gone above freezing.  At noon it’s 33 down there, after a low in the mid teens!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

44 Responses to Noon Update: Going to Be Close Far West Metro!

  1. Jake at the Lake says:

    at around 2 pm i was riding my bike on glisan at 190th, and was hit by 4-5 very small ice pellets.

    thats my ice storm 2013′ story 🙂

  2. maryinsellwood says:

    Rain, no ice, 33 degrees in Sellwood.

  3. alohabb says:

    Well my walk just proved different. Glazed trees and shrubs, crunchy sidewalk. Main roads ok, but ice is forming in Aloha.

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      I’m not seeing any ice here in East Hillsboro, is your ice from freezing rain or is it from the moisture after it’s been on the ground for a bit because of the below freezing temps?

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    33 with a light North wind in Salem at 3:00 PM. No Arctic blast next week but still a bit below normal temps. Highs mostly 40 -45 with 30-35 lows. Looks like fairly low level snow next week. Maybe 2,000 feet or so. Good chance to build up mountain snowpack. Looks like a persistent Northwesterly flow over us. Glad to see no icy mess out there. Maybe we will see a little snow around Christmas. I sure hope so. Just no ZR.

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      Actually the models have not decided one way or the other. They can’t workout the amplitude of the blocking ridge, there is an aluetian low that is very strong and capping the extension of the high further north…the AL could easily be taken away from the GFS and then you are looking at a more amplified block for later next week…there are some other factors working in there as well, a bit early to say no arctic air in here next week isn’t it???? Especially when all the ingredients are there…

  5. Rick says:

    30 degrees moderate rain in Lafayette. Truck and trees icing up.Roads look OK .

  6. marinersfan85 says:

    31 in Sherwood. Things are icing up. Temperature has been on the decline.

  7. BoringOregon says:

    38 with light rain out here. Temp is rising little by little!!

  8. Andrew (Beaverton, OR) says:

    Hillsboro has dropped from 29 to 28 with the moisture…

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KHIO&num=72&raw=0

  9. Marcustheweathernut says:

    Looking at the radar the mixed precipitation line seems to be growing as the rain comes in does this mean we can drop down a few degrees and get freezing rain???!!!

    • Ryan says:

      Could be slight evaporative cooling. Its raining steadily now in Tigard, but no real signs of ice and the cars are flying by. We’ll see. Not a hint of wind either.

    • Mark says:

      web bulb effect is possible, as the moisture cools the atmosphere, but this is a pretty warm front, with lots of warmth above to mix in. What we are looking at is constant warming throughout the rest of the day and well into the evening.

      As for the long-term… models continue to trend towards an industry standard PacNW trend. EURO and GFS all pretty much in line with a cold rain for the valleys, lots of snow for the cascades for the foreseeable future. Unless things drastically swing back to arctic cold soon, it looks to be off the table for a while.

  10. dothgrin says:

    Light ice glaze due to a light run of ice pellets in Aloha in past five minutes…little surprised by this. Anyone?

  11. Ryan says:

    I’ll never doubt you again, Mark. You are consistently nailing these forecasts. With the exception of the amount of snow in the south valley on friday(7-9″ actual vs 4-6″ forecasted), you’ve been spot on with the timing and strength of all of these events. Maybe the 2 inches that Vancouver got Friday morning was a slight miss, but for the most part, a very good job! Not easy to do around here, but your experience helps put you above the computer models.

    • Marcustheweathernut says:

      I think Mark is the best in the biz!!!:)

      • Ryan says:

        Absolutely! I don’t think he gets the same credit as a guy like Zaffino(who I like too), simply because kptv is not quite as popular as kgw. But definitely the best in the biz!

  12. Heatblizzard says:

    Has anybody noticed that artic air events since the 1980s have not had the usual transition events? I hope it’s not my bad luck magnet.

  13. Paul D says:

    Rain in Hillsboro and it’s still 30 degrees.

  14. snowgrover says:

    Very light rain falling in Forest Grove now. Its kind of freezing to surfaces. I say kind of because my pickup has no ice on it, yet the toolbox in back does. The leaves on the rhododendrons have a mix of frozen and liquid. Sidewalk is crunchy sounding but isn’t glazed. Still cold though. Only 27 on the west end of FG.

  15. Teresa says:

    Some freezing rain around Salem.

  16. dothgrin says:

    Mix of rain/freezing rain in Aloha. Temp 28

  17. alohabb says:

    Rain in Hillsboro. Not freezing.

  18. Ben T says:

    Rain… 😦

  19. W7ENK says:

    I’m glad we (most of we) came out of this without an icy mess today. Although to be on the safe side, I may postpone my visit to Estacada until next week. Lots of shaded areas and low spots along Springwater that could hold onto the cold air, so it may not be worth the risk. That’s just something I don’t wish to find out the hard way…

    • JohnD says:

      I concur completely. The big ones are
      awesome to look at but horribly destructive.
      And even the little ones create conditions
      impossible to drive in. We were out in
      Troutdale some years back when ice storms were
      part of the identity. Temp profile across the
      metro now above freezing with only an isolated
      pocket or two. 40’s grey “typical” weather
      may actually seem nice for a few days. But
      like most of you I am still looking like a
      hawk for our next true winter event! Hopefully
      the end of next week!

  20. Dave in South Salem (500') says:

    Rain started here. Not sure what the temp is, but it was 30 at noon.

  21. Paul D says:

    30 degrees at my house about a mile west of the Hillsboro Airport. No precip yet…

  22. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    I understand that the ground can be warmer than the air. What I’m wondering about, though, is why is the ice still frozen that’s been sitting on the ground for days? I’ve been emptying out a water bowl 2x/day for some feral cats in the neighborhood AND the birdbath in my backyard and the ice is still sitting on the ground where I left it and still just as frozen. If rain were to hit that same ground, why would it not freeze at 29° air temp and no sun in sight? Just curious?

  23. Garron near Washington Square says:

    1st first?

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