Coldest Weather in 4 Years Ahead!

I just finished this afternoon’s forecast, plus caught up on a bazillion emails from the Thanksgiving Weekend.  Big picture weatherwise is that we have a cold period coming up with several chances for snow or some sort of frozen precipitation.

 

The Highlights

  • Showers should end the next few hours (by 8pm).  As expected, since the snow level didn’t drop very quickly, the best you’ll see below 1,000′ is a flake mixed in with a dying shower.  I think anyone above 1,000′ could get a dusting before we dry out.
  • Cold, sunny, and dry the next 3 days.  Temps will gradually trend downhill, first from increasing cold wind out of the Gorge, then increasing cloud cover Thursday should keep us real chilly.  I have 40, 36, 34 for the next 3 days of high temps here in Portland.  Low temps will be nothing unusual tonight, but then plummet Tuesday night and Wednesday night to the lowest so far this year.  Widespread 15-20 degree temps away from the Gorge (wind keeps temps up), and maybe some 10-15 degree readings in the coldest outlying spots like Vernonia, Battle Ground, and Hillsboro.
  • Models now show a rare (for us) cold and slightly wet system swinging south out of western Canada, then sliding down the Pacific Northwest coast.  If so, it’ll be cold enough for all snow, probably even at the Coast.  Assuming this moisture does arrive, we could actually see a widespread light snowfall Thursday night and Friday morning west of the Cascades.
  • Models also show a brief colder blast of air behind that for even colder temps Saturday/Sunday.
  • For Sunday/Monday, our models are all over the place but seem to be trying to merge moisture from the southwest and another blast of cold air from the north.  This pattern in the past has historically produced our best snow/ice storms.  So some sort of “high-impact” event, as we say, could be coming at that time.  Still 6-7 days away so that could easily change.
  • We haven’t seen this long of a cold stretch since December 2009.

 

For the hardcore weather geeks

Showers moving over the metro area right now, but it looks dry upstream in Western Washington, so the idea of drying things out quickly after 7pm is probably still on track.  It also appears the snow level in the Coast Range is down to at least 1,500′, so the atmosphere is cooling quickly.  Just a little too slow for us to get sticking snow in the lowest elevations.  It’s interesting to note that the timing of this is pretty much the same as shown many days ago, but the airmass was also expected to be cooler at this time on those model runs back on Tuesday/Wednesday last week.  Right now is when we’d be getting our snow with the last of the showers…too bad.

East wind (dry and colder air) begins late tonight as the modified arctic air moves in.   Such dry air means bright sunshine for a couple of days though too.

I raised tomorrow’s high to 40 degrees based on MOS forecast.  Plus it seems like often we over-forecast the first day when the cold air moves in when we get great mixing, but the brunt of the cold stuff hasn’t totally trickled in.

Things now are looking real interesting Thursday night and Friday morning.  The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM all show a stronger shortwave trough swinging south through Western Canada, bringing a 2nd surge (a reload!) of modified arctic air later Friday and Saturday.  Now that the trough digs offshore a bit on models, that spins up a surface area of low pressure that swings moisture down the coast.  The track is similar on all models showing the main snow heading through the southern half of Western Oregon.  If this solution continues to hold, we could see a widespread (light) snowfall across the entire west side of the state, maybe part way up into SW Washington too.  Something similar to this happened during the December 1998 cold spell.  I remember the westside, downtown, and coastline got snow and the eastside got nothing as a cold low scooted down the coastline.

Whether we get moisture or not that day, cloud cover should keep our high temps around freezing, colder if we actually get snow.  Then a real chilly day Saturday with sunshine.

Sunday and Monday are REAL interesting as some of the models are showing energy cutting under the strong upper-level ridge to our west and combining, in some way, with more energy and cold air coming down from the north.  This general pattern has given us widespread snow/ice storms in the past.  And, just as in the past, we’ll see wide variations in solutions for that period over the next 4-5 days.  I remember the January 2011 (or was it 2012) event where at one point we expected a massive snowstorm here as low pressure would move in to our south.  However, over the following days models moved the surface low much farther north and we ended up with a trace to just several inches across most of the metro area.

So, to summarize, some real weather fun is possible over the next week and we MIGHT finally see some sleddable snow in our area for the first time in several years…maybe.  Lots of “possible”, “might”, and “maybe” in this post eh?  My 7 day forecast has more decent snow chances (and cold) than I’ve had in several years too.

Here are the 12z GFS ensemble and 12z ECMWF ensemble charts:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

 

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

198 Responses to Coldest Weather in 4 Years Ahead!

  1. Sifton says:

    Well this match up of Hill vs Nelsen should be interesting! (at least to me as they’re the ONLY 2 I take serious)

  2. paulbeugene says:

    18z NAM finally converging with other models on snow event for parts of Oregon Friday. Snow to begin in the early morning hours on Thursday night into Friday. Gorge winds will be increasing at this time. I am predicting, once again based on model runs and gut feeling, the following:
    1/2-1 inch snow Forest Grove-Hillsboro-Banks.
    Trace to 1/2 inch snow S of West Hills-Downtown.
    None to trace Mollala-Estacada-Troutdale-Gresham
    Woodburn to Salem: 1/2-1 inch west of I-5, trace-1/2″ east
    Salem-Corvallis-Albany: 1-2 inches
    Eugene-Junction City-Cottage Grove: 3-6 inches
    Roseburg: 3-6 inches
    Medford: 4-8 inches above 2000′, 2-4″ below

    With snow cover, will have lows 6-14 this weekend.

    If models change, so does the forecast.

    • Ryan says:

      I think that makes sense, Paul. Models may not show anything for the North Valley but its silly to think that no moisture at all will hit PDX, unless the track goes even farther south. And from what I know from past events, the lows always seem to go a little more north than models say, as opposed to going a little more south. Eugene definitely looks like a winter wonderland this weekend. If only the Ducks could’ve hosted the PAC-12 championship on Saturday. Might have been the first snowy game ever at Autzen.

    • Taylor says:

      Grr this is so annoying. The southern willimatte valley got hit last time we had snow in recent memory while we got nothing. Oh well maybe its time to throw in the towel on snow for my area..

    • Ron says:

      “Why is it silly to think . . .”? Someone will be on the edge or past the edge of the moisture line. It very well might be PDX. Sure we might get a small amount, a trace maybe, but to say it’s “silly”? Silly isn’t a meteorological adjective.

  3. 18z NAM looks to my eye snowy S valley with the Friday system. Plain cold up here sans snow, where is the fun in that? Seattle getting the short end…

  4. Max in Fairview says:

    DP crashing at Troutdale with the East wind kicking into gear.

  5. BoringOregon says:

    Where did Rob go?!?! Wow can you feel that wind chill!!

  6. Taylor says:

    Well for what its worth getting winds from the ENE in Clackamas according to the Weatherbug station close to this area. And every now and then some gusts as well.

  7. HVMike says:

    Is this whole weather/cold event going to miss the Metro area?

  8. Trout Lake says:

    East wind just kicked in at Trout Lake. Already back down to 31 from a high of 33 today.

  9. WEATHERDAN says:

    The cold air is coming and so is the snow. When we start micro model riding we become like a manic depressive. One model were up, the next we are very down. Just relax and let it happen. What we going to get is what we get. I haven’t looked at the models today. But looking at surface maps it looks like the cold air is definitely on the way. dp’s in WA are falling. N to NE winds are gusting to 40 mph up there. If you recall from just last weekend the Arctic air wasn’t supposed to get here until Tuesday night anyway. Enjoy what we have, a nice winter snowstorm coming our way. If it isn’t an epic -15 degree 27 inch snowstorm the lasts 18 days so what. Remember what we got the last 4 years, nada, zilch, zip, nothing. Now we have a forecast of snow likely for Friday and a high near 30. I’m going to go out for a walk and enjoy a cold and foggy day. I’ll leave the model riding to others. Have a great day one and all. Peace.

    • Lauraholic says:

      ^^The voice of reason!!

    • weathernate says:

      Sunny 42 in the couve seems like global warming not artic outbreak. Why is everyone calling off the cold snap? No one predicted the rain saturday so I think anything can happen, just depends on what the good lord wants.

    • dharmabum says:

      WD well said, I enjoy hearing about what the others are saying about the weather in their area and stories and anecdotes relating to weather or about winters past etc…..

    • Brian D. says:

      I could not agree more. These models do become rather frustrating to follow on a consistent basis, however, any hope is more than we have had in past years. Imagine this.. We could all be sitting here, in a quiet forum, with mid-50’s and clouds for the next 7 days + on the maps. Seeing that currently it is much more than that, I am greatly thankful. As well, thank you to all posters (specifically Mark Nelson) for keeping the snow dream alive!

    • weathernate says:

      Mark needs to update his 7day. Time to rock the banana hammock!! Sorry just trying to have fun in this sad moment in weather time.

    • snodaze says:

      Good idea Dan… Sometimes I wish I could un-learn weather models.

    • Ron says:

      What models are you looking at that shows a snowstorm coming? I see nothing for the north part of the valley. Are you central to south valley? Models are pretty clear (minus a surprise) and you don’t base a forecast on surprises or gut feelings. The temps are impressive but to say there is a nice winter snowstorm coming is nothing more than wishcasting.

  10. Model Rider says:

    Still snowing in Redmond. Weird it doesn’t show up on radar tho. So there’s snow cover in central Oregon that isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. But it is desert so it may evaporate who knows. Looking food for Friday here for some more snow cover as low swings inland and the north side of low spits moisture up this way. 21.8 out right now and steadily been dropping all morning.

  11. Lurkyloo says:

    Ack! Ugh! Bleck! Brrrrrrrrrrrrrr! East Winds put a hitch in my giddyup. They chap my hide. They can kiss my behind. They’re mean. But they’re here … and it makes me really cold. Even when I’m inside. “My name is Lurkyloo and I am an Eastwindaphobic.”

    BTW, PaulB I shall not enjoy the wind chill, thankyouverymuch! 🙂

    > <
    O

  12. schmit44 says:

    I noticed Mark Nelsen’s station CW2654 Corbett is no longer reporting on mesowest reports. Is this station out of service?

  13. Finally..a NE wind just kicked in…up to 9 mph!

    Humidity dropped from 96 to 80.

    Unfortunately, it’s 41 degrees right now!

  14. 12z models support low descending from N offshore, little to no snow potential. Although long range solutions suggest “gradual moderation”, it’s worth reflecting on the fact that “gradual moderation” is atypical, with some overrunning/ scouring event the norm, with at least some period of snow (or freezing rain in PDX metro). I wouldn’t put a large some of money on “gradual moderation”.

    • Josh Gardner says:

      Gradual never happens, models always overdo that. Very good point

    • David B. says:

      “Never” is wrong. Sometimes it does. But I agree with Peter — it’s not the usual case and it’s a long ways out. It’s not cliff-jumping time until the models all converge on the no-overrunning scenario and stick with that story as the time approaches.

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      Gradual happens…just hope you are right this time. I’m just looking at the 12z run as a whole, I could give you my overall thoughts on the models over the past 24 hours but I don’t think you would like that either :(. HOpefully the 00z model set gives a different view and they bring back an overrunner.

    • Model Rider says:

      Or perhaps they flip again and give a massive reload and a few more lows throughout the next week.

    • W7ENK says:

      “Gradual never happens…”

      December 6-14, 2009

      Never say never.

    • runtmc says:

      W7ENK says:
      December 2, 2013 at 3:19 pm

      . . . I’ve learned it’s best to keep your mouth shut, lest you be labeled a “Debbie Downer” or pessimist.

      When you wrote this yesterday, I foolishly got excited. This is my idea of a “bust.”

    • W7ENK says:

      Look what the cat dragged back in!

      I stated a fact and backed it up with historical evidence. You have a problem with that, troll?

    • David B. says:

      @runtmc – That sounds hypersensitive to me. W7 was merely correcting an incorrect statement.

    • GTS1K' says:

      Yeah, thank God for W7’s vigilance. Wherever would we be without his snarky “corrections” – especially of casual comments like Josh’s.

      • Ryan says:

        Mark, I thought you banned all these drama idiots who don’t talk about weather? They seem to creep back in somehow.

    • W7ENK says:

      Ryan, don’t worry about these two assclowns. They think they get under my skin, which is cute, but they don’t. I find their attempts quite entertaining, actually! I just look at them as my own little fan club, since I’m the only one they bother to respond to. They seem quite enthralled, anticipating my next comments. lol

      Cute. Sad, but cute. 😉

    • W7ENK says:

      Oh, I should also mention that sentence structure, grammar, certain personalized keywords and the shade, degree and tone of snark are nearly identical between them, and also happen to be remarkably similar to another commenter who hasn’t reared his ugly head around here in quite some time now. I’m banking on these two being aliases of the same, less than popular former character. I could be wrong, but all those years studying psychology, abmormal psychology, personality matrices, deception techniques, encryption algorithms, etcetera etcetera etcetera… in school make me pretty good at rooting out the riff-raff. I’m willing to place money on that (at least) the three of them share the same IP.

      You should hone your skills, sweetheart. You’re busted. 😆

      Nice try though.

      It was your b!+ching about my use of emoticons that finally gave you away, if you must know. Hope the East winds aren’t too bad out that way! :mrgreen:

      Oh, and also also: I’ve already rooted out one of your fakes on FB. I have several myself! Nice outdoor fireplace, BTW.

  15. umpire says:

    Another thing to consider regarding the cold temps. Before Sunday night, the east side of the state had almost no snow cover. I drove back from Boise on Saturday, great driving conditions, and hardly any snow on the mountain tops, let alone in the valleys. Trip check cameras now show the Blue Mountains are socked in, and it looks like several inches of snow has fallen in much of mid/eastern Oregon. That will help solidify the cold temps coming through the gorge. Whether the timing is good for moisture remains to be seen.

  16. David B. says:

    North wind really starting to pick up on Bainbridge Island. Still not super-cold but dew points are in the low 20s. Even Bellingham looks likely to get above freezing today (currently at 32 there, so 33 or 34 seems likely). Hope is at -2C as of last report; odds are it will stay below freezing there.

  17. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    12z take aways!
    1- Models trending a bit colder for the weekend still.
    2-chance of snow Friday is fairly minimal, 12z takes the low further south, although I don’t know the statistical output by the euro.
    3-Looks like models are zoning in on maybe a gradual warm up without any overrunning event, at least not major event.

    Overall, colder in the short to mid term, 3rd reload looking like it’s all but gone, moisture very very limited in PDX in the next 7 days.
    This is all based on just the 12z’s.

    • David B. says:

      Regarding #3 that would be a disappointment BUT it’s a week out and the models aren’t in complete agreement on it, so I’m not jumping off the cliff yet.

    • Model Rider says:

      Ya guys, its a week away almost. Calm down.

  18. Another long-time lurker and rare commenter here. Interesting to see how quickly people are “canceling” the snowstorm. Mark himself said, we’ll see wide variations in solutions…over the next 4-5 days. That’s why I quit model riding a year ago. The 12z models may be snow killers, but who’s to say the 18z batch won’t bring it all back, and then some? Waiting for snow around here is like riding a seesaw: you’re up one minute, down the next. Then up, down. Let’s just appreciate the unusually cold air (if you’re the type who does) and see how the situation progresses as the week wears on. All this talk of a cliff would only make sense if it were the beginning of March and we had seen diddly-squat.

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      Mark, you are completely right…but it’s almost not worth your energy…there will be people jumping to these conclusions, no matter what, alarmists, nay-sayers, etc…that being said, we are in flux on the models…although they are starting to show a consensus that there may not be a major overrunning event after 12z runs today. But as you said…00z is another run…everything could change AGAIN!
      I’ve been following models here in PDX for over 15 years now…lived here 36 years, and I still love the ride, no matter the result, and you never know that result until the end…sit back and relax!

    • Josh Gardner says:

      We’re on the same page man

    • gidrons says:

      I got off the GFS model riding train a couple of years ago. When runs that are only 6 hours apart give such drastically different solutions, that gives a clue that the model is clueless. I check the Euro twice a day and that’s it. The last 4 runs have shown a storm coming off the Pacific on Monday. The track of that low will make a big difference, but the margin of error that far out is too big to make any conclusions about rain/zr/snow.

  19. Josh Gardner says:

    The model riding has gotten insane. This all still holds true and I’m sure someone will slam me for wish casting

    -Possible snow Friday (less in the metro, but whatever falls will stick around)

    -Another chance Sunday-Monday

    -2nd reload with great ensemble agreement

    -It’s going to take a heck of a system to scour that cold air

    But sit here and call it a bust. Go ahead.

    • Amen, and well said! I was basically typing the same thing at the same time. And I almost never comment here, but the model riding IS ridiculous. It’s why I quit the FB group a year ago – it’s painful to watch!

  20. Scott says:

    I am a long time lurker, first time poster. Thank you to all for the passion you have for weather, and sharing it here. I pray for snow, but know it’s not easy in the parts. I ran into a great paper on lowland snow in the Puget Sound lowlands (Cliff mass et al.)

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%281993%29008%3C0481%3ASOTPSL%3E2.0.CO%3B2

    Obviously it’s not a perfect match to PDX. Apologies if it’s been read\discussed before. Enjoy if not.

    My prediction, influenced by countless dissapointments…we will not see much snow. It will be cold, but as is often times the case, the moisture is not there when it’s cold. We may see a little Friday and Sunday, but I am guessing not sleigh riding depth…

    I hope I am wrong, and would gladly admit I was wrong. I look forward to the endless analysis of every model run. I love it! 🙂

  21. Mark says:

    EURO 00z and now the 18z GFS showing – possibly – no snow, and just a gradual warmup starting Sunday into next week, and then into a progressive westerly flow? Say it ain’t so, but the one model here, one model there, the short-term trend isn’t looking so promising…

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      That’s the 12z GFS you mean. But you are right, both GFS and ECMWF 12z models are just barely dry here. They both say Eugene and Roseburg are the places to be. Even Newport looks good!

    • JohnD says:

      Yeah basically telling it like it is, it
      virtually never snows in Portland. Just the way
      it is. So if we like snow so much then why do we
      live here?! Well, the summers are great–and so
      is the scenery. But snow? Just frustration.

    • JJ78259 says:

      Doming

  22. Boydo2 says:

    Excellent animation Mark. This will be a great tool for tracking snow/cold temperature migration.

  23. Mark says:

    I see many wondering where the cold air is, but I would mention the highs today were upper-30’s to 40F forecast today several days ago, which looks right on target.

    To be specific, the leading edge of the cold air is in the Columbia basin. Many weather sites are rather poor, but Intellicast has a great animated temperature map, color coded with the ability to add many layers of data on the top. I find it an accurate enough system to the point where one can literally watch the progression of the arctic air filter down in from Canada.

    The tell tale sign the air is making its way into your area? Simple. Once the east winds begin, watch the dew point plummet and there you go – the bleeding edge of our arctic blast 2013!

    • Ryan says:

      Hopefully that’s enough to get EY off the cliff! It’s still coming, just taking its time.

    • Darlene in Boring says:

      The east wind has just arrived out here in Boring. Brrr. 37 when I got up at 0500 and now 38 with sun, 5 hours later. I love Intellicast!

  24. GTS1K' says:

    Believe it or don’t!

    Light snow for the last 20 min. – 32.3

  25. Andrew (Beaverton, OR) says:

    Very light rain downtown currently.

    • weathernate says:

      Looks like on facebook site Rob is calling off the artic/snow at the end of the week!! BOO

    • Model Rider says:

      He’s following every model run to the “t”. Just when Mark said not to do that cause there will be lots of variances in the coming days. Hmmmmm……..

  26. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    In other news it’s currently moisturizing from the sky outside… I can’t tell if it’s rain, snow, rain/snow mix or anything.

  27. Model Rider says:

    Well just so you guys know its 23 in Redmond now with light snow and a little snow cover. That should help cool things off as I don’t see it melting off anytime soon.

  28. My mom just text and said it’s raining in Minnehaha…I thought no way…but then pulled radar.

    A nice little band is moving WSW. Maybe the leading edge of an easterly push??

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?rtx_ncr+/2h/

  29. Ron says:

    If you’re trying to figure out temps go to Marks website

    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/markswxlinks.html

    Then go to model Data and click on the RPM and choose what you want. Temps are pretty accurate.

    Here’s a 00z model run for example.

    The RPM readings are the most reliable that I’ve found. Takes the guess work out, BUT it isn’t specific to everyone’s location. Gives a good idea though of trends for areas outside of PDX area. Correct me if I’m wrong.

  30. dharmabum says:

    Beautiful sky here with the clouds breaking, the drizzle ending and the sun peaking through! Yippy another day to work out in the yard and experience the GOLU model!!!!!

  31. Andrew (Beaverton, OR) says:

    It was never supposed to get that cold last night…although we did hit a low of 29 out in beaverton. It looks like the Hillsboro airport is still sitting at 33 this morning. Temperatures will struggle to go much higher than they currently are as the colder air and lower dewpoints continue to filter in. How can you call this a bust when its only 2-3 degrees off from what was forecast at this time?

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      That’s the thing about gut reactions… They can be right or wrong. There’s no in-between nor is there logic to them. It’s just a nagging voice that’s saying one thing, whether or not the facts are pointing somewhere else.

      I’m simply asking for people to point out why my gut is wrong so I can shut it up with logic and good food.

  32. paulbeugene says:

    12GFS emphatically shifts the ridge to BC coast. It also delays the action on southern stream end, so we may just be dry and cold to start next week (850mb temps will be rising but surface will remain cold).

  33. paulbeugene says:

    GFS 12z a bit farther S with low into SW OR than yesterday, keeping best snow accumulation in SW Oregon (Medford could get 4-5 inches), while it shows Eugene getting 1-2 inches at best. Models may be underforecasting the amount of precipitation we get in this situation. Best guess is Forest Grove/Hillsboro get 1/2-1 inch, east slopes of Coast Range down to Salem/Corvallis get 1-2 inches. Eugene ? maybe a bit more than that? East side of Willamette Valley N of Salem will not get anything but flurries.

    It is going to be COLD

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      And whatever happened to the Monday Tuesday snow storm?!

    • Taylor says:

      With all due respect hope your wrong. I really want snow in Clackamas. And if the system on Sunday night is falling apart or not going to happen then this is our only chance.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      It looks to me that the Milwaukie dome might eat the Friday storm over almost ALL of western Oregon. I am hoping the rapid warm up I’m seeing trend for the beginning of next week doesn’t become a trend!

  34. paulbeugene says:

    It is not a surprise that arctic air has not come blasting through here yet. I would call it more of an arctic bleed or ooze than anything else. Once the Columbia Basin/NE and Central OR get filled with cold air the gorge pouring cold air out over PDX metro and down S into Willamette Valley. I hope you enjoy the wind chills up there.

    Speaking of which, NAM still keeps Oregon high and dry (and cold) with Friday system but it appears it is trending toward moisture at least on the coast (no accumulations shown on mm5 but snow “echoes” show up over coastal waters that were not there before.

    The surge of arctic air on Friday evening/Saturday will be much more noticeable. I don’t expect highs above the 20s this weekend.

    We are going to see all kinds of model solutions as to how the energy from the Pacific (southern stream) and the arctic (northern stream) interact early next week. The potential is there for a big time snow or ice storm for the PDX metro, big snow for Seattle, rivaling or exceeding what was seen in Dec 2008/Dec 1996.

    Given the strength of the Alaska block, I do not expect it will just shift E and have the westerlies impinge on BC coast and giving us southerly winds. I would not be surprised if the block holds firm, arctic air stays entrenched in interior to our NE and the southern jet directs toward OR or even Northern California. The other option is for the block to pinch off and retrograde toward the Bering Sea/Russia and large cold G of AK low would take shape, getting our ski areas open. I have not seen much in way of model noise in that direction so we may just have to put up with persistent arctic air for now. 6z GFS suggested this.

    Wait and see I guess. Looking forward to December 6.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I’m sure the models will keep us entertained.
      Hang on folks, the ride ain’t over yet!

  35. pedro771 says:

    All of these posters saying bust are ignorant. We all knew today wasn’t going to be that cold. The cold air will be filtering in over the next few days. This isn’t a strong arctic blast. This weekend could be a lot more impressive.

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      I can’t speak for the others who are calling this an utter bust. I’m just not seeing signs yet to get hopeful over the fact that we could see temps colder than last week.

      I’m not calling it a bust yet, I’m saying I sincerely have the feeling that we could be looking at one. That’s why I came here and said it, because I figure that I’m not seeing something that others are seeing.

      It just seems like the temps EAST of the Cascades should be far colder than they are.

      The only real saving grace I see is that Dew Points are pretty darn cold out that way. But up north in British Columbia, it’s struggling to reach sub-20 at this time in Kamloops; much less in Hope, Langley and Vancouver.

      Could simply be that when people say we’re looking at an arctic front moving from the north to the south, I keep imagining it moving in a nearly north-to-south direction.

  36. Wwm says:

    Wow….Get a grip people, the atmosphere is already cooler than 24 hours ago, there is snow on the ground above 1500 feet on Larch, dew points are dropping, winds have switched. Read Marks post and rest assured it is slowly cooling down just as he said it would. maybe the arctic front or boundary is going slow but it’s on it’s way. Think of the alternative 55 degrees and rain. Calm down and enjoy the fun this week.

  37. JJ78259 says:

    Made it to back to Portland yesterday hoping for some snow this morning but the dome is in effect again. Flew over a lot snow in the mountains yesterday but none under the dome.

  38. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    I can’t sit here and explain why. All I have to say is that looking at temperatures over a period of 7- 24 hours in many locations in Eastern Oregon, Eastern Washington, Western Washington, Vancouver British Columbia and even as far north and east as Prince George British Columbia… As of 7am PST…

    I’m beginning to think this might end up as one titanic-level bust of a forecast.

    Can someone keep me from jumping over the cliff?

    I know I don’t know remotely as much as most people here do… But looking at the lack of temperature change in the areas we are suppose to receive cold air from (yes, they have cooled off a bit, but haven’t really chilled at all)… I’m starting to massively doubt we’ll get that cold here.

    Is there something I’m not seeing? I REALLY hope there is…

    I’m beginning to think that everyone has over-hyped this and it could turn into the biggest forecast bust of the decade… If not longer.

    …SERIOUSLY! PLEASE PULL ME OFF THE CLIFF!

    • MasterNate says:

      Patience Grasshopper!

    • unibashradio says:

      Whining creates heat. Your copious griping is to blame here. Good luck out on that cliff.

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      I’m going to be as patient as I can… But I’m not seeing it yet. Hundreds of miles to the north and east, it’s not alarmingly cold, nor is it really that cold. Once you get east of the Rockies, it is…

      I’m at the point now that we’re going to miss out on the really cold air and it’s going to move too far east to affect us, leaving us no colder than we were a week ago.

      Again, someone point something out to me that cold air is currently moving into position to hit us… Not just what the models predict.

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      Er… It should say “Seriously, pull me AWAY from the cliff” not pull me OFF the cliff”

      I don’t want to be pulled off the cliff. It’s scary and insanely jaded down there.

    • MasterNate says:

      Although, on todays menu at the bottom of the cliff, you find BBQ pork ribs, BBQ chicken with teriyaki glaze, 5 cheese Texas Toast and a fine selection of local micro-brews on ice! Your chef today will be Mr. Mark Nelson. Since you are the first jumper, you will get some quality one on one time with the Master as all your questions will get answered. Tempting? Go ahead and jump. Just don’t touch the Widmere Hef!!

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      Pah!

      If I can’t touch the Heff, I’m not gonna jump. That’s far and away my favorite brew.

      Apparently you managed to pull me away from the cliff simply by my love of very select brews… I’d also have accepted PBR due to my lack of money and taste.

    • MasterNate says:

      Here, take one of these and call me in the morning. This will show current wind and temp for our area. You can slide it south to see further north towards BC. Looks like its crossing Bellingham right now headed this way.

      http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?map=pqr

    • David B. says:

      At this stage, I would agree. It’s shaping up to be more a dry interior air outbreak than an arctic one. Questions now are: how cold will it get at night after the winds die down (water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, so dry air means more cooling at night), and how cold the expected “reload” later in the week will be.

      Note that temperatures in the 30s and dew points in the teens pretty much ensure snow if anything falls from the sky. Even if it’s 38 and rain at the onset, evaporational cooling will quickly take it down to freezing with sticking snow.

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      Call me a dbmonger but…

      The dew point in Bellingham has been sitting at 11 since midnight. The air temp right now is only 2 degrees colder in that time. I realize that, with a dew point at 11, it could be that cold at this time… But it isn’t.

      The cold and dry air is there… Why haven’t the temps reflected that?

    • dharmabum says:

      Maybe time to find a good book to read and throw another log on the fire!

  39. David B. says:

    32 degrees, north wind, dew point in the 20s. It’s here.

    • David B. says:

      I don’t think this “arctic” blast is living up to its name. More dry than cold. But the dry, clear conditions will enable cold once the wind dies down.

  40. Paul D says:

    Total bust in Hillsboro. 35 degrees this morning. BORING!

  41. Marcustheweathernut says:

    Looks like a stationary Arctic front to me!!!!

    • David B. says:

      No, it’s not. It spread a fair ways south overnight, including passing over me (Bainbridge Island). It’s more a dry interior outbreak than a cold arctic one right now, though. Even Bellingham is down only to 29 this morning.

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