A real quick post, only because of one chart I just looked at. I’ll do a real posting for regular people who don’t need all the technical geekery) later this afternoon.
Here’s the 12z GFS ensemble chart:
A few thoughts:
- Approaching cold pattern is definitely still ON.
- Last two runs of GFS have speeded up the timing of the cold front to Sunday midday! That’s when we go from warm rain to snow showers below 2,000′
- Based on this chart, the faster movement might not be correct.
- But based on this chart, all ensemble members are down around -7 by Monday evening anyway, regardless how each run “got there”.
- The drier arctic front is still timed for Monday night, not as well defined this time.
- 12z operational, which wasn’t nearly as cold as ECMWF or earlier runs, is one of the warmest members by Tuesday.
- So it’s quite possible the next run of the GFS will be colder again.
- A lot of the “noise” has disappeared from Monday and Tuesday, very few warm members now. Something chilly is going to happen early-mid next week.
As always, I’ll be looking forward to the ECMWF during the next hour. It just comes out twice a day, which is probably good. Not as many “mood swings” with either the model or me.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen