Sunny, Chilly, and Very Dry!

The big weather story this evening should read “NON-STOP SUNSHINE AHEAD FOR 5+ DAYS!”.

But no, for weather geeks like me ,it’s more like this  “EXTREMELY LOW DEWPOINTS MEAN VERY COLD NIGHTTIME TEMPS WHILE STRONG GORGE WIND DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND”.

Skies are clearing this evening behind the morning cold front and temps are the coldest we’ve seen all day.

MarkTemp_SinceMidnightPDX_Bars_Hot_11pm

The well advertised dry air is coming in from Canada.  Models have been very emphatic shoving dewpoints down into the 30s, then 20s, then teens over the next 24 hours.  The airmass moving south out of Canada is the driest we’ve seen since sometime last winter.  It’s not exceptionally cold, just chilly.

But with such dry air, even daytime highs in the mid-upper 40s means low temps drop like a rock at night.  I expect widespread 20s tomorrow night as the wind calms down, and at some point between now and Sunday we should see some upper teens in the coldest outlying areas.  A similar pattern produced similar temps in November 2000.  Meteorological Pacific Northwest winter has arrived!

MarkColdTextPanel

Other than that, ridging is the big story through the short-term and long-term.  The 00z GFS had some sort of ridging over us through the entire 16 day run, with only one weak system squeezing through the ridge around Thanksgiving.  However, that IS the GFS.  The ECMWF turns a bit wetter and cooler sometime over the Thanksgiving Weekend, at least the 12z did.

With warming temps above 2,000′ late this weekend and over the weekend (50s at ski resorts), easterly wind through the Columbia River Gorge will turn very strong after Thursday, probably the strongest we’ve seen since 1 year ago when peak gusts were around 70-75 in Corbett and 85+ at the Vista House sensor.  Yes, that means some 100 mph gusts on the steps possibly over the weekend.  Nice timing…I’ll be keeping an eye on that.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

126 Responses to Sunny, Chilly, and Very Dry!

  1. runrain says:

    Wow. First time I can recall not being able to keep up with Mark’s rapid fire blog postings!

  2. Marcustheweathernut says:

    12z euro…… Looks like a cold trough coming down from the gulf of alaska on dec 1…… Which will be cold enough for snow until it reaches us…. Traveling over the mild pacific waters it will warm up and snow above 1,000 ft…. Happens every time lol!!!!

  3. Jeff Raetz says:

    Breaking News: This morning we turned on the furnace for the first time! Woke up at 430 for work and it was 60.4 – So now it will be set to 66 the rest of winter! lol

  4. vernonia1 says:

    19 here last night. The bottle of water I left in the truck was frozen almost solid even @ 10am LOL

  5. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    12z EURO ALERT(sort of) well almost to ‘Alert’ criteria… More of a tiny raise of the eyebrow. Yeah, that’s it.
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      At the bare minimum the 500mb pattern has some potential.

    • weathernate says:

      Oh no did you guys see the nam12 euro fugitsu nhm zzz 1345
      calls for a chance of boring followed by massive artic heatwave, with no wind and shattered dreams.

    • BoringOregon says:

      28 for the low. High of 41!!

    • gidrons says:

      Its nice to see the Euro finally show some consistency between runs, even though is shows an unusual pattern. The track of the low next week is not far from something interesting. I’m hopping on the model riding train.

  6. paulbeugene says:

    Record low for EUG 11/22 is 20F (Nov 2000). Hopefully can get a record low in the books. (Record for 11/23 is 18 from 1985)…would be lucky if we break that one.

  7. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Get a wingsuit on and head to Vista House tomorrow.
    Should be able to take off as soon as you get outta your vehicle!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    902 AM PST THU NOV 21 2013

    VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS IN STORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND…OTHER THAN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. BASED ON THE MODELS CURRENT REPRESENTATION OF THE CROSS CASCADE PRESSURE GRADIENT…IT APPEARS IT SHOULD AT LEAST DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE WITH 30 TO 50 MPH WINDS LIKELY FOR TROUTDALE…40 TO 60 MPH WINDS FOR CORBETT AND 80+ MPH WINDS POSSIBLE AT CROWN POINT. AT THIS POINT…IT APPEARS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK…BUT MODELS SEEMINGLY OVERDO THIS.

  8. dharmabum says:

    21 degree low in the Barton area near the Clackamas River this morning. Can’t wait to see the lows coming the next few days!

    • Prairie Dog says:

      I’m on Clear Creek not far from Barton. Hit 22.6f this am. Wind picked up and temp been rising since about 9am. 43f now. Light breeze. Crown Point has gone from 27mph earlier this am to over 40mph now! Keep it rollin’!

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