Weekend Update: Friday Evening

November 15, 2013

Nice snowstorm in progress up in the Cascades this Friday evening.  Looks like Timberline has seen about 6″ so far.  Here’s our forecast:

MarkSnow_MtHoodFcst

The snow tapers off dramatically after midday tomorrow.

Down here in the lowlands, a pretty quiet weekend for weather weenies; just partly cloudy with a few showers Saturday and mostly cloudy with more widespread showers Sunday.

Bad news for skiers though as some of this snow is going to melt.  I expect snow levels back up around 6,000′ from late Monday through early Wednesday, then dry weather.  As a result, I don’t think we’ll see ski areas opening up next weekend, the 23rd-24th.  Of course that’s the weekend before Thanksgiving, which this year is the latest it can be (the 28th).

Let’s talk long range maps…I’ll highlight the similarities.

Big picture appears to be warm system Monday-Wednesday AM, then ridging/drier later next week through the weekend.  Note the 500mb height anomalies from the GEM (12z), ECMWF (12z), and GFS (00z) all line up similarly for Sunday the 24th

anom_ecm_sun24
anom_gem_sun24
anom_gfs_sun24

…possibly another warm and wet system (bad for skiing) for next weekend.  These maps are 8-9 days out.

Then Thanksgiving week, wide variability again, but at day 15-16, all three models develop ridging nearby once again, although it’s quite weak on the ECMWF:

anom_gem_sat30
anom_gfs_sat30
anom_ecm_sat30

These solutions would imply November will remain mild and it’ll be tough to get ski areas open for Thanksgiving.  However, we’ve seen huge swings in that Thanksgiving Week outlook the past few days.  So this is definitely not a sure thing.

Here are the two latest ensemble charts from 00z GFS and 12z ECMWF:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

The ECMWF sure has it chilly mid-late next week after the cold front slides through Tuesday night or Wednesday AM.  In these charts you can also see the warmer atmosphere next weekend.

The brand new 00z ECMWF coming in right now is almost the same as the 12z.  Strong and chilly offshore flow next Thursday behind the cold front:

ecmwf_apcp_f144_nw

And stronger ridging next Saturday:

500vty_f180_bg_NA

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


Episode 34: Winter Forecasts, Super Typhoon Haiyan, & Mars One Update

November 15, 2013

Fresh NW Weather Podcast just posted!

And here is what actually occurred on the Ed Forman show that we referenced in the podcast:

Northwest Weather Podcast

Portland Snowfall

Episode 34: Winter Forecasts, Super Typhoon Haiyan, & Mars One Update

This week, Brian, Mark and Joe break down this year’s Winter Weather Conference and give their thoughts on Northwest snow.  They’ll also take a look at Typhoon Haiyan, one of the most powerful storms ever to hit land.

Typhoon Haiyan

The guys will also answer your weather questions and enjoy a rousing game of Cities of the Week!  Can you guess the city before they do?

As always, thanks for listening!  Our appearance on the Ed Forman Show was an absolute blast.  Pics and video will be up soon.

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