Fog Tonight, Then A Bunch of Mtn. Snow

Some real dense fog in spots around the metro area tonight, be careful driving!  At least temps are way above freezing so we don’t have to worry about freezing fog tonight.

Looking ahead, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the cold and wet system Friday:

MarkWarnings_Winter Wx Advisory

It’s for the Blue Mountains, which are oriented SW to NE.  With a system coming in from from the north/northwest, that’s great lifting as it runs into the mountains.  There will be plenty of snow in the Cascades too.  Right now I’m thinking 10-15″ in the Cascades from noon Friday to noon Saturday (or maybe ending a little later):

RPM_SNOWACCUM

Models have backed off on the offshore flow for late weekend and early next week as real cold air to our northeast won’t be quite as close as models showed just 24 hours ago.  So no changes in the forecast; cool showers tomorrow afternoon, some steady and cold rain Friday (highs only 45-47!), then drying out Saturday and Sunday.

One change in models the last 24 hours is a quicker return of moist westerly flow next week.  The latest 00z ECMWF, which has totally gone nuts with a very wet week ahead, shows rain already returning to our area by Monday!  Forget about any crisp/cool weather…here are the 1-10 day rain forecast graphics from tonight’s Canadian and ECMWF:

can_apcptot_f228_nw

ecmwf_apcptot_1-10_nw

Here’s the latest 00z GFS ensemble chart, after this weekend some pretty wide variability eh?

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

74 Responses to Fog Tonight, Then A Bunch of Mtn. Snow

  1. runrain says:

    Pretty stormy night out at Clackamas High school for the football game. Nonetheless, their running back has 240 yards and five touchdowns. Oh, by the way. It’s still in the second quarter!

  2. archangelmichael2 says:

    All operational models *including any future ones that may operate someday if our supercomputers ever get a major upgrade* should have a disclaimer saying “Beyond HR178 For Entertainment Value Only”

    Then we can all have our laughs and giggles with a peace of mind.

  3. High Desert Mat says:

    Light snow in Redmond at the moment

  4. capkirk45 says:

    As a long time lurker, sometimes post-r, and amateur weather nut, here’s my tack on the models.. You probably get a bunch of new visitors on this blog each storm season, so maybe this will help the newbies.. Mark (or others in the know, correct me if you think I’m mistaken)..

    1. Model-following has gotten much easier in recent years. There’s a lot of data, and it’s easy to get to, now.

    2. The Euro (ECMWF) is considered the most accurate, with the best data, in the world.

    3. The GFS and NAM are playing catch-up, as is the US in general when it comes to weather technology.

    4. At any given time, each of the three models (and there’s others) can be in disagreement with each other, and often are, especially this time of year.

    5. While the Euro is top dog, the GFS, or even the NAM can be the one model that best forecasted future weather, but the Euro tends to give the better results the most often.

    6. Any of the models, beyond hour 175 are complete junk, and the algorithms break down. Don’t rely on them for anything.

    7. The models are just best guesses, based on historical data, and programmed by people. They are tools, not Oracles. They provide lots of value, especially within a few days, but that’s it. Take them for what they are.

    8. The “Gorge Effect” is not programmed into the algorithms very well, if at all, and provide a black-hole of sorts in the data. Rely on Mark and other experts in the area for the nuances.

  5. Kenny says:

    The new 12z EURO is very chilly for overnight Tuesday. Depending on if there is moisture and and it falls at night, we could get some sticking snow down to the lowest elevations.

  6. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    The 12z GFS, albeit not great by the numbers, shows us on the verge of very cold air, right at our doorstep, just as the last few runs have shown….that being said, I’m very encouraged by the noise being put out long range, throught the operational GFS runs…only time will tell.

    • Ben T says:

      For as much as it is going back and forth from being cold to not very cold. For the past week, haven’t the majority of the models been showing something cold is going to happen?

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      They always do and it never happens 😉

  7. capkirk45 says:

    Hey Mark, looking at your 7-day forecast for Tuesday, it looks like you’ve gone w/ the GFS solution, which appears to have a significantly enhanced southern influence than what the Euro shows. The NAM, too, looks to have a colder influence on that day.

    Did you go w/ the GFS, or am I mis-reading those other models?

  8. JJ78259 says:

    Beautiful day at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin 75 degees for the Formula 1 time trials today. Should be 85 for the race on Sunday. Great weekend ahead!

  9. Kenny says:

    The new 06z GFS Ensembles show several members that bring modified arctic air to PDX starting next Tuesday with two members bringing true arctic air by the end of next week.

  10. schmit44 says:

    11/14/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:60 at MCDERMITT 26N(4464 ft)
    Low: 47 at DW7774 Roseburg(446 ft) & WYETH(102 ft) & SWAIN(366 ft) & LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft) & BROOKINGS(79 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:33 at IRISH TAYLOR(5500 ft)
    Low: 11 at MAZAMA (4596 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 43 degrees
    Lorella (57/14 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.70″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2630ft)
    0.65″ at CW7745 Oregon Ci(486ft)
    0.45″ at CW9654 Canby(158ft)

  11. High Desert Mat says:

    Well now 00z has a cold east wind and an arctic blast at 300 plus hours. Hmmmm,, better put stock in it now lol

  12. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Hahaah! Don’t hold back, tell it like it is!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
    348 PM PST THU NOV 14 2013

    BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DRY THE WEATHER OUT ON WED AND WED NIGHT… BUT THIS IS COMPLETELY OPPOSITE YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS…WHICH WERE DRIER EARLY IN THE WEEK AND WETTER TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK. IN OTHER WORDS…MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY STINKS. BY DAY 7 FOR EXAMPLE… THE 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO SHOW DRY WEATHER…BUT THE 18Z GFS IS TURNING QUITE WET AGAIN BY LATE NEXT THU. HAVE BEEN SOME RECENT RUNS WITH HEAVY QPF NEXT THU AND FRI…WHILE OTHER RUNS ARE DRY. WITH THIS IN MIND…HAVE GONE WITH CLIMO LIKELY POPS IN THE DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME. THERE IS A LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES…FROM DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR…TO HEAVY RAIN. WISH THERE WAS A REASON FOR DECISIVENESS AT THIS POINT. HANER

  13. Prairie Dog says:

    While this is a sports clip, it really is the story of us men and women too, (mis)behaving when the models fail us. Pick a player or coach to which you identify with when all the cold air moves east. I personally identify with Sweet Lou. Come on, fess up.

    Mark, we know you are one of these guys behind closed doors or off the set. I see you as perhaps George Brett.
    for those of you that live out there beyond day 5 or 6, then I feel your pain. Yep, I’m feeling Sweet Lou.

  14. ocpaul says:

    Saw a flock of geese sharing a pitcher of Spaten at Gustav’s today.
    Guess they aren’t in any hurry to fly south this fall.

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Saw an article on one of the major news networks about a turkey farmer who feeds his birds beer daily. Pretty funny. Maybe those geese were trying to get to his farm, Paul. Just fueling up … ? 😉

    • ocpaul says:

      I like that explanation better than mine.

  15. Jeff Raetz says:

    18z last night – Cold blast with highs in 20s around Thanksgiving
    00z last night – 40-50 degrees around thanksgiving
    06z – 40-50 degrees around thanksgiving
    12z – 40-50 degrees around thanksgiving
    18z – Yet again, Cold blast with highs in 20s around Thanksgiving

  16. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    I am filing a petition that the GFS should only run through day 10( FCST HR 240) just as the EURO and GEM do. To have model output beyond this point all the way to FCST HR 360 or day 16 isn’t only pointless, it’s inconceivable, irrational, and implausible.

    Who’s with me?

  17. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    18z Goodies v2.0 .. La-la land? Beyond FCST HR 240? Past day 10? No worries! Of course it’s legit, it’s the 18z, plus it has the [No BS] seal of approval! Look for yourselves

    Troutdale

    Bellingham

    Williams Lake, British Columbia

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Joking, right? High of 15F on Black Friday?? That would be epic. And hilarious.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      If the little NO BS graphic I created didn’t give it away, yes, 100000% joking. 😀

    • Lurkyloo says:

      But just imagine all the tired, full shopping folks running around in 15 degree weather after having waited in line for WalMart to open at 12am (no disrespect to the fine folks of Fairbanks …)!

  18. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    Don’t look at the 18z…just don’t do it.

  19. WEATHERDAN says:

    I don’t mean to mean to offend anyone but what a bunch of hooey. One day the model says rain the next day snow. one day we have a big trough then the next day we have zonal flow. Then when something does happen,(As it always does because something has to) you see in this blog hey the models predicted it. Every day I look at these models they have changed. I have zero faith in these models and will not be model riding this winter. I do respect Mark and Paul and Rob for all their knowledge they possess, but I no longer trust any of the models whatsoever. That said I hope we do get some cold and snow and in fact I think we will. I just won’t look to the models to predict it.

    • weathernate says:

      I would have to agree they all say one thing and what do you know. Complete opposite happens. Still does not stop me from looking a all the input everyday. This blog is the poison in my vein. Just cant kick the habit. LOL

    • weathernate says:

      No iam just a squirrel try to get a nut in this weather world. Live in the couv and got jipped on the summer thunder now afraid will get screwed on the wind and snow of this winter.

  20. Kenny says:

    The new 12z GFS Ensembles are showing another round of chilly weather starting the middle part of next week. Some ensemble members are colder than what he will see this weekend with one at -11C. After that ensembles are all over the place.

  21. Kenny says:

    Thew new 12z GFS Ensembles are showing another round of chilly weather starting the middle part of next week. Some ensemble members are colder than what he will see this weekend with one at -11C. After that ensembles are all over the place.

  22. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    12z EURO
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    Trough, zonal and very wet, ridge.

  23. gidrons says:

    The models have had some big swings this fall. I wonder if they have a hard time dealing with typhoons and super typhoons. The Pacific has been quite active this season.

  24. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Good morning,
    Brief update. 6z NAM was bad, 6z GFS was even worse.

    Enjoy your Thursday.

    • Ben T says:

      The models will go back to saying really cold again I bet.

    • gidrons says:

      The 0z Euro has windstorm potential next week. None of the models are great at predicting those this far out, but the ingredients look to be there for cyclogenesis. The models seem exceptionally erratic the last 10 days.

  25. Greg Carstens says:

    Darn it! I was really hoping for that high of 4 and low of -2 in Southeast Tacoma the GFS model was showing at 18z on the 29th. Oh well, perhaps in the Fall-Winter of 2014-15.

  26. schmit44 says:

    11/13/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:71 at EW3367 Coos Bay( 98 ft) & BROOKINGS(79 ft)
    Low: 52 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:38 at MILK SHAKES(5600 ft) & MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 18 at Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft ) & FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft ) & DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 44 degrees
    Lorella (64/20) (4160ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.22″ at Eugene, Mahlon S(364ft)
    0.21″ at Portland Interna(20ft)
    0.21″ at Portland-Troutda(36ft)

  27. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Thanks for the detailed update, Mark.

    00z EURO
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    Trough, flat ridge, zonal, then split flow resumes west of 140 W. It stays very cold up north in Yukon, NW Territories, Nunavut.

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