Fog Tonight, Then A Bunch of Mtn. Snow

November 13, 2013

Some real dense fog in spots around the metro area tonight, be careful driving!  At least temps are way above freezing so we don’t have to worry about freezing fog tonight.

Looking ahead, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the cold and wet system Friday:

MarkWarnings_Winter Wx Advisory

It’s for the Blue Mountains, which are oriented SW to NE.  With a system coming in from from the north/northwest, that’s great lifting as it runs into the mountains.  There will be plenty of snow in the Cascades too.  Right now I’m thinking 10-15″ in the Cascades from noon Friday to noon Saturday (or maybe ending a little later):

RPM_SNOWACCUM

Models have backed off on the offshore flow for late weekend and early next week as real cold air to our northeast won’t be quite as close as models showed just 24 hours ago.  So no changes in the forecast; cool showers tomorrow afternoon, some steady and cold rain Friday (highs only 45-47!), then drying out Saturday and Sunday.

One change in models the last 24 hours is a quicker return of moist westerly flow next week.  The latest 00z ECMWF, which has totally gone nuts with a very wet week ahead, shows rain already returning to our area by Monday!  Forget about any crisp/cool weather…here are the 1-10 day rain forecast graphics from tonight’s Canadian and ECMWF:

can_apcptot_f228_nw

ecmwf_apcptot_1-10_nw

Here’s the latest 00z GFS ensemble chart, after this weekend some pretty wide variability eh?

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen