Ensemble Charts

Two from overnight.  A little better agreement on a trough digging closer to us Saturday, thus quite a bit wetter with sticking snow down into the foothills (1,500′?) Friday night/Saturday AM.

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

20 Responses to Ensemble Charts

  1. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    18z GFS not quite as cold with the trough, but the overall 500mb flow is very similar., and of course the pattern turns too progressive. Just the brief transitory ridge at 140 W which slides over us, then things turn poopy.

    00z NAM in 4 hours
    00z GFS in 5 1/2 hours
    00z GEM in 5 1/2 hours
    00z EURO in 7 hours 43 minutes

    • BoringOregon says:

      Its to early for Snow, need to wait tell at least Mid December. Glad I don’t live in Boston. Like I use to, there saying 38 for the high. Then 61 for the high by the end of the 7 day??

  2. High Desert Mat says:

    I do like that one ensemble member around thanksgiving at -18c 850mb. Operational is also on the cooler side. Maybe the other ones come around to those in future runs?

  3. I like it. That looks snowgenic

  4. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Guess what?

    That’s what. 18z NAM coldest run yet. 520-522dm heights with trough Saturday-Sunday. Impressive.

    500mb loop is pretty nice not going to lie. Watch the energy dive south turning the corner around the periphery of the ridge and the cut-off low retrograding.
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model+Guidance&model=nam&area=npac&cycle=20131112+18+UTC&param=500_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=L

    Onto 00z runs
    GFS in 7 hours
    GEM in 7 hours
    EURO in 9 hours 5 minutes

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Wish that was a stable pattern tho. Looks progressive and likely a quick hitter with ridge nosing in on us soon after.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Yeah, all models show the pattern is too progressive just a transitory ridge and brief cold shot.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Its not even December yet so its probably a good thing that were not wasting our perfect pattern i.e. the omega block, this early in season anyways.

  5. Ben T says:

    Who’s out and who’s in?

  6. This weekend will probably be the “First Taste of Winter” in much the same way that a mid/late February ridge is the First Taste of Spring. High temps well below 50 with possible flakes in the Coast Range passes and 850mb temps near -8 in the Columbia Basin = Early winter is here.

  7. I highly doubt the ski resorts are gonna open up before December based on the 12Z ECMWF. Whatever snow falls this weekend is probably gonna melt after next week’s ridge moves in.

  8. Kenny says:

    The new 12z GEM brings the arctic air across the Canadian border as the -10C lien gets to Seattle. If there is any moisture, those of you in Seattle and Vancover BC will get sticking snow down to sea level. Down here in Portland, it’s still borderline and depends how far south the cold air gets.

  9. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Looks like a high pressure builds in after the low sweeps thru. followed by even colder temps. Maybe.

  10. High Desert Mat says:

    Also looks like the operational is an outlier on the gfs. Lets hope for some really cold air to build up north then drop down here at the most opportune time, Dec. 18th and sticks around til end of year.

  11. momof2kiddos says:

    I’d love some fireplace weather 🙂

    • Powder Yeti says:

      I totally agree. I tired of having the back door open at night so I can just have the fireplace on. Bring on the cold.

  12. Ryan says:

    Would love a “white birthday” on Monday!

  13. Wendy-Silverlake says:

    I had just noticed the low snow levels and came on here to see if anyone else had noticed as well.

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