Some Fresh Snow On the Way…In the Mountains

November 12, 2013

 

Our very slow weather pattern continues through the next 7 days as high pressure dominates the eastern Pacific Ocean.  That means we don’t get any wet systems coming at us from the southwest or west.  But that does leave the door open for a “quick hit” as systems come down the back side of the ridge offshore.  Basically a weak system can come down out of British Columbia.

One of these will move through Thursday with a few sprinkles possible, or flurries in the mountains.  Then a stronger one drops in over us Friday night and Saturday morning.  It’s gone by Sunday as the ridge pushes closer to us, but it’ll bring a quick shot of showers in the lowlands and snow in the mountains.  Here’s a graphic showing what I expect (right now):

MarkSnow_MtHoodFcst_2013

Notice that out of the next 7 days there is only a 24-48 hour period with any appreciable precipitation, and “WEEKEND” is probably a bit much…it’s really later Friday and the first half of Saturday.  Still, we’ve lost most of the snow below 5,000′, so this will get a base going again below those elevations.

You may also notice the lower snow levels?  This will likely be the first time this season we see at least a dusting down to 2,000′, maybe a little lower.  Models have been all over the place with moisture and amount of cool air moving in over the weekend.  The 12z/18z GFS would barely get snow down to 2,000′, while the 12z ECMWF is a little colder; thus the 1,500′ snow level on the graphic.  Just 24 hours ago models had the cool system much farther to the east as it moves south, keeping us mainly dry!  And that could change again in the next 24 hours.

What does this mean for the lowlands?  Not much, except high temps will be a little cooler starting Friday through early next week and it’ll be wet for parts of Friday and Saturday.  Expect highs only in the 40s for a few days (assuming current models are correct).  We’ve been near to a little above normal so far in November, so this will bring that average back down to normal or below.  We may see the gusty east wind return Monday-Tuesday.  If so, it’ll be a 10 degree cooler east wind compared to what we just saw Sunday and Monday.

In general the drier than normal weather will continue through the next week or so.  As you can see from the chart above, that means no fresh snow for the first half of next week.  So, as of now it looks like a long shot to get ski areas open for the weekend before Thanksgiving (Nov 23rd-24th).  Beyond that, the last week of the month is a big question mark though…we’ll see if the pattern turns wetter.  A lot can change in two weeks!

ed forman

By the way, three of the FOX12 weather folks will be on the ED FORMAN SHOW this evening.  Yes, the King of Late Night in PDX.  It’s a (very interesting) talk show in downtown Portland and we’re part of his NEWSvember.   Brian Macmillan, Joe Rainieri and I will be at Dantes (3rd and Burnside) around 9:30-10:00pm.  Should be fun!  You’re welcome to come on down too.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


Ensemble Charts

November 12, 2013

Two from overnight.  A little better agreement on a trough digging closer to us Saturday, thus quite a bit wetter with sticking snow down into the foothills (1,500′?) Friday night/Saturday AM.

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland