Right on schedule, the east wind started ramping up Sunday evening and was raging by this morning. Take a look at the peak gusts:
Interesting to note that PDX had a gust to 38 mph, slightly stronger than Troutdale! That sometimes happens when we get really good mixing, maybe in this case because it was a very “warm” east wind episode.
The wind goes calm by sunrise Tuesday as a cold front moves overhead and kills the high pressure eastside that’s pushing the wind through the Gorge.
For the rest of us, a very warm day! High temps hit 60, which is the “new warm” for mid-November. Amazing how quickly our average high went from 70 6 weeks ago to 54 today.
There was some serious weather geek interest (wishcasting?) in the models over the weekend, based on a few chilly model runs for next Sunday/Monday. That’s mostly gone now. Here’s the 18z GFS ensemble chart:
and the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart:
They both show two cool troughs coming down the back side of an upper-level ridge offshore. One on Thursday and another later Saturday. But neither one is THAT cool, just 850mb temps a few degrees below zero. Still, the ECMWF has quite a few ensemble members down below -5 (a sharper/colder trough) next Monday/Tuesday. Something to keep an eye on. But I don’t get excited about it anymore until I see at least 2 days of consistency in the models, especially when we’re talking 7-9 days ahead of time.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen