Strong East Wind Today

Right on schedule, the east wind started ramping up Sunday evening and was raging by this morning.  Take a look at the peak gusts:

MarkEastWind_GorgeandMetro

Interesting to note that PDX had a gust to 38 mph, slightly stronger than Troutdale!  That sometimes happens when we get really good mixing, maybe in this case because it was a very “warm” east wind episode.

The wind goes calm by sunrise Tuesday as a cold front moves overhead and kills the high pressure eastside that’s pushing the wind through the Gorge.

For the rest of us, a very warm day!  High temps hit 60, which is the “new warm” for mid-November.  Amazing how quickly our average high went from 70 6 weeks ago to 54 today.

There was some serious weather geek interest (wishcasting?) in the models over the weekend, based on a few chilly model runs for next Sunday/Monday.  That’s mostly gone now.  Here’s the 18z GFS ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

and the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

They both show two cool troughs coming down the back side of an upper-level ridge offshore.  One on Thursday and another later Saturday.  But neither one is THAT cool, just 850mb temps a few degrees below zero.  Still,  the ECMWF has quite a few ensemble members down below -5 (a sharper/colder trough) next Monday/Tuesday.  Something to keep an eye on.  But I don’t get excited about it anymore until I see at least 2 days of consistency in the models, especially when we’re talking 7-9 days ahead of time.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

31 Responses to Strong East Wind Today

  1. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    12z GFS Not bad through FCST HR 96… Trough digging a bit further west, flow bending around a tad to the northeast.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Cold air shoved east by Sunday. GEM/EURO pointed at a brief cold snap if it happens. GFS following suit. I’d say that’s a decent bet.

  2. Seems like the front is just passing, strange upward spike in temp, maybe because the flow was easterly before?

    http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KWABATTL18

    Temp was 48 at 7:45 and is now 51. Not a huge jump, but noticeable for sure.

  3. ocpaul says:

    Happy 11-12-13! And next year, 12-13-14. Wild.

  4. paulbeugene says:

    6z GFS trending colder at day 5

    • PaulO says:

      lala eye candy too.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

      Interesting to see 925mb temps colder than 850mb temps there at the end. -9c vs -6. Looks like a Gorge event with some overruning precip.

      I’m thinking not an ice event as 500mb temps are -28c and the column looks to be below freezing from surface on up.

      Sigh…la la…

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Well, well, well…..
      Could it be that the GEM(Canadian) was onto something last night? It showed the first trough over the weekend the be quite a bit colder with thickness values in the 520s for WA and parts of OR. Then the 00z EURO came out in good agreement with this and now the 6z GFS has also trended colder with this weekends trough. Flow bends around much more favorably to the north, but not quite to the northeast or a digging southwesterly arctic trough.

      500mb pattern is quite close to doing so however and I cannot understate that. Over PDX we see 500mb heights 531, thickness 529, 850mb -5c. Not snow #’s(Unless you have easterly flow, and a cold pool to draw from a snowy Columbia Basin, which we won’t.) BUT chilly regardless and within FCST HR 90! not FCST HR 6,240 like usual lol. Oh la-la land also is really good looking with a nice block offshore.

      Let’s see if 12z runs today follow a similar colder solution.

  5. schmit44 says:

    11/11/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:72 at EMIGRANT LAKE AT(2042 ft)
    Low: 54 at BUCKHORN SPRINGS(2780 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:35 at Suttle Lake (US(3460 ft)
    Low: 16 at Lakeview, Lake C (4734 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 54 degrees
    Lakeview, Lake C (70/16 ) (4734 ft )

  6. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    It’s nice to see these brief cold shot possibilities, but let’s be realistic and not raise our expectations too high for mid-late November.

  7. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z EURO Alert!
    Very GEM looking…… it’s So CLOSE to a significant November blast, yet so far away. Really though that’s not a horrible 500mb pattern and yeah, I know saying this is redundant, but it wouldn’t take much tweaking of things to drop a bigger chunk of cold air over us.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Looks like 00z EURO was only good for 2 days.. then the pattern is too progressive ridges shifts right over us Poopsville.
      Onto 12z ! only 11 hours 56 minutes way!

  8. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z WRF shows the first cold pool of the season and COLD east winds.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      00z GEM colder solution with 500mb pattern. Thicknesses mid to upper 520’s for PDX and lower 520’s across Washington. I think any cold shot IF it occurs will be brief.

      I love seeing all of the bitter cold building becoming really entrenched up north just waiting for our 500mb pattern to get its act together…..

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      Finally getting cold up north. That’s good. Seems like when we get a cold snap here early in the season, it’s game over for the rest of the winter. So drag this pattern out for a while longer, get the shift in December and…. BAM! Arctic intrusion just after Christmas lasting for two weeks!

  9. archangelmichael2 says:

    Darn blogspot ruining my comments! The strong positive AO the strongest since Spring plus the X class solar flares I am not at all surprised at the lack of cold.

    I am though very disappointed at the waste. I hope this isn’t going to be an El Nino.

  10. archangelmichael2 says:

    Summer and the burst of X class solar flares I am not at all surprised at the lack of cold air.

    I have a gut feeling this year we lost another opportunity for cold and it will be a VERY foggy winter that makes last winter look puny if we have a lot of ridging.

    I can’t decide which is a more sick winter scenario. Weeks of inversion fog or SW flow with snow levels above 4500 fee

  11. gloria says:

    I live a couple miles east of Stayton – fog ALL day. So much for giving the lawn a mowing before the rains settle in again.

  12. BoringOregon says:

    One windy day at “Crown Point”—-http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=D6193&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

  13. Time to ask Mark a QUESTION!

    Let’s suppose this Sunday/Monday we get 850mb temps to -8 over the Columbia Basin and -5 over Salem/Portland. What kind of high and low temps would you expect for PDX and DLS? I’m going to respectively guess 47/30 and 43/23…

  14. Ben T says:

    Yea last year burnt out my hoping for snow 8-10 days out. Now I’m being more reasonable.

  15. Only a high of 48 here under fog and low clouds all day. Very little wind down here.

    • MasterNate says:

      Exactly the same high with fog all day in Molalla. I guess my share of 60 went to Portland. The good of the many outways the good of the few, or one. 😦

  16. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    East wind is roaring pretty good almost into raging mode. TTD-DLS still -7.8mb as of 7 PM

  17. That’s ok, Mark, that guy from California stole the keys to the Wishcasting Train anyway.

  18. BoringOregon says:

    1st!!!

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