Strong East Wind Today

November 11, 2013

Right on schedule, the east wind started ramping up Sunday evening and was raging by this morning.  Take a look at the peak gusts:

MarkEastWind_GorgeandMetro

Interesting to note that PDX had a gust to 38 mph, slightly stronger than Troutdale!  That sometimes happens when we get really good mixing, maybe in this case because it was a very “warm” east wind episode.

The wind goes calm by sunrise Tuesday as a cold front moves overhead and kills the high pressure eastside that’s pushing the wind through the Gorge.

For the rest of us, a very warm day!  High temps hit 60, which is the “new warm” for mid-November.  Amazing how quickly our average high went from 70 6 weeks ago to 54 today.

There was some serious weather geek interest (wishcasting?) in the models over the weekend, based on a few chilly model runs for next Sunday/Monday.  That’s mostly gone now.  Here’s the 18z GFS ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

and the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

They both show two cool troughs coming down the back side of an upper-level ridge offshore.  One on Thursday and another later Saturday.  But neither one is THAT cool, just 850mb temps a few degrees below zero.  Still,  the ECMWF has quite a few ensemble members down below -5 (a sharper/colder trough) next Monday/Tuesday.  Something to keep an eye on.  But I don’t get excited about it anymore until I see at least 2 days of consistency in the models, especially when we’re talking 7-9 days ahead of time.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


Monthly ECMWF Maps: Lots of ridging for awhile

November 11, 2013

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA (1)

A bit of a change since the last monthly run; ridging more over us instead of farther to the west about a week from now and beyond.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen