Veterans Day Weekend; Here Comes the East Wind

It’s a 3 day weekend for the kids and government workers because it’s Veteran’s Day Weekend.  Coming up on Monday and I think the morning/midday parades are going to be dry.  A deep upper-level trough, which at one point was going to come down right over us and give us a cool/wet weekend, is going to stay offshore.  As a result, it’ll be hard to find rain from Friday evening through Monday evening.

2012_VETERANS_DAY

Temperatures warm dramatically in the atmosphere overhead through Sunday and Monday, with 60 degree temps likely all the way up to 3,000′ or so.  Of course it’s November and that real warm air won’t mix into the valleys very well (weak sun angle and short days).  Still, high temps should be around 60 both days here in the Portland metro area, aided a bit by an easterly wind.

Speaking of east wind…

With a surface low pressure sitting offshore the next few days, and higher pressure eastside, we’ve got our first east wind “episode” of the cold season coming up.  East wind shows up in the Gorge overnight and should blow through Tuesday morning.  It won’t be that strong, just gusts 35-50 mph Sunday and Monday in the west end of the Gorge (60-70 at Vista House), but it’ll be the first time we’ll see temps in the 45-55 degree range most of the time (brrr!).  Just a sign that winter is getting closer.

For the weather geeks, what a turn of events the past 3-5 days with the long-range models.  Instead of a cooler than normal 1st half of November, it’s going to be near to above average.  And all the storminess models have been showing (starting about now) is gone.  The reason is the upper-level high being too far west out in the Pacific.  As we see the next few days, all the cool air and energy is dumping out over the Pacific instead of coming directly down over us.  There are hints on the GFS and ECMWF that ridging may develop directly over us maybe 8-10 days from now…maybe.  Either way, the first half of November is sure going to be dead.  Here are the latest two ensemble charts:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Look at the ECMWF forecast 500mb forecast for Sunday morning:

ecmwfnow

Compare that to the forecast for Sunday…from one week ago showing a cold trough over us and 850mb temps down around -2 (not shown on map):

ecmwfold

Enjoy the weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

81 Responses to Veterans Day Weekend; Here Comes the East Wind

  1. geo says:

    Dave salesky just said much cooler weather on the way towards the end of the week. highs will be in the mid40’s he says. Did not show his 7 day to keep it suspenseful for the later news.

  2. Jeff Raetz says:

    Crown point 72mph

    Stairs = 85mph?

    11 Nov 11:27 am PST 55 ESE 37G72 30.13 29.331 0.00

  3. Jeff Raetz says:

    75mph on the steps at crown point

  4. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    A modest east wind event and first of this Fall has been ongoing in PDX metro mainly east of I-205. In fact until 10 AM the east wind hadn’t broke through into PDX itself meanwhile it was gusting 30-40mph throughout Gresham and Troutdale above the River. That is due the pressure different between PDX and TTD right along the River was positive keeping the easterlies confined a few miles to the east.

    Crown Point has had a peak of 72mph so far which equates to around 82-87mph along the south facing stairs(memorialized at the Pierce-Keely staircase) haha. PDX/TTD-DLS maxed out around -8.4mb and is on a slow decreasing trend now. That’s not too shabby for approaching mid November.

    By the way, 18z sucked. Gorton’s Fisherman has been ranting about it over in my Facebook weather group. Rightfully so. Worst of all a TON of bitterly cold Vodka air is just to our north waiting patiently and anxiously to pay us a visit, but it won’t. 12z EURO was slightly better, but the cold air slides east and we see a glancing blow from the trough. Might be cold in eastern Washington and it will give us drier, cooler air. Won’t see much with NW flow aloft we need the flow to bend around more and that won’t happen with the ridge inside 140 W and the cut-off low near 160 W. We need that to retrograde back towards the date-line. Anyhow…. ya

    00z in 5 hours. Oh yippee!

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      It’s colder up in northern Washington/Bellingham, but that doesn’t cut the ketchup for PDX.

  5. BoringOregon says:

    Man, the winds are really picking up out there…. At least 25 to 30mph out here.

  6. boydo3 N Albany says:

    ECMWF gives some drive by colder air in 6-7 days. GFS doesn’t show it.

  7. JJ78259 says:

    Arctic blast coming thru San Antonio could get down to the upper thirties mid week for lows, highs in the upper fifties to low sixties. Brrrrr! Then back to the mid seventies, today is sunny and 78 perfect out.

  8. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Nice at Timberline! (presently)

  9. Looks like the first day of hurricane-force wind gusts up at Crown Point for the season (on the steps)

    There are some low clouds in the Columbia Basin…a good sign of a cold pool over there.

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_west_full+6

  10. schmit44 says:

    11/10/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:70 at BRUSH CREEK(2130 ft)
    Low: 51 at BURNT RIDGE(2955 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:41 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 18 at Lakeview, Lake C (4734 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 46 degrees
    Lakeview, Lake C (64/18 ) (4734 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.15″ at POINT PROM II(6607ft)
    0.04″ at DW9126 Brightwoo(1336ft)

  11. paulbeugene says:

    Much of the cold air staying bottled up near the pole, with arctic oscillation in well into the positive phase. Models bring the index to near neutral by the end of the month. When 500mb heights start rising in arctic regions we will see corresponding height falls in temperate latitudes with cold air shifting S.

  12. Mark Nelsen says:

    Strongest east wind so far this fall (and cooler too). Gust to 48 mph at Corbett last hour and 57 this hour at Vista House (70 on the steps?)

  13. Jeff Raetz says:

    how to i fix this. take a look. showing caution

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=E1091&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

    havent changed any settings in the past 2 years and now this?

  14. archangelmichael2 says:

    A good look rather then model riding is the AO chart which can be found here. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html

    since the first of November it’s been above +2 and now it’s above the + 3 mark. Most of the summer it was relatively flat hence why our summer our temps were mostly flat though Salem had twice the 90s Portland did when the forecast only called for highs of 84-86F those days for the mid valley.

    It went negative a few times in July hence parts of the USA having colder/wet weather but never below -1.

    When we had those storms in September those were brief times the AO dipped into the negative territory in the fall a bit but quickly rebounded.

    Until this month there hasn’t really been a *trend* for the AO

  15. archangelmichael2 says:

    I wish Mark would have an *historical weather* blog that only deals with historical statistics and current statistics where people can post comments on storms in the past such as the 1949/50 winter or the November 55 cold snap.

  16. BoringOregon says:

    Katu, had temps drooping into the 40’s for the highs next weekend?

  17. Lurkyloo says:

    Wow, the 8-10 days out “thang” is soooo played out! It’s annoying, really. And really annoying. We always get the false hope, wishcast, no-go, maybe??, “oops nevermind” scenario. Nobody’s fault, I know — but not another winter of this!!? Sorry, just venting, friends …

    Happy Sunday!

    P.S. This should in no way be misinterpreted as one of W7’s epic rants of annoyance. He’s the master. Thank you.

  18. Kenny says:

    The new 12z GEM give the PNW a big arctic blast early next week as -15C temps are seen just east of the Cascades.

    • BoringOregon says:

      Maybe that’s why. I was watch the weather channel, and they said some thing is going to happen. Any one notice, when there is a big storm the “Weather Channel” goes off??

    • AdamInAumsville says:

      The cold air will be shunted further east with future model runs. Book it!

  19. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Hahaah! Humor outta Seattle!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
    912 AM PST SUN NOV 10 2013

    RADAR AND OBS SHOW THE NARROW RAIN BAND FROM THE WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA…HUNG UP OVER NW WA…EXTENDING FROM THE OLYMPICS ACROSS ADMIRALTY INLET…S WHIDBEY ISLAND…AND SNOHOMISH
    COUNTY…FINALLY OVER THE N CASCADES. 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SLOW THE FRONT DOWN TODAY…TAKING ALL AFTERNOON TO DRAG ITSELF ACROSS THE N INTERIOR…AND PROBABLY LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. KIND OF REMINDS ME OF GETTING MY KIDS TO GO TO BED WHEN THERE WAS A GOOD TV SHOW ON…TAKES FOREVER…THEN THEY HIDE OUT IN THE HALLWAY TO THE VERY END.

  20. SW says:

    Does anyone know what model(s) AccuWeather follows?

  21. schmit44 says:

    11/09/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:64 at RED MOUND(1753 ft) & Bly (OR 140 MP 5(4350 ft) & LYNHART RANCH(4092 ft) & EMIGRANT(3840 ft) & Brookings Airpor(459 ft)
    Low: 47 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:36 at MILK SHAKES(5600 ft)
    Low: 12 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 45 degrees
    Bly (OR 140 MP 5 (64/19 ) (4350 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.47″ at CW0825 Sweet Hom(600ft)
    0.22″ at POINT PROM II(6607ft)
    0.20″ at SUN PASS(5600ft)
    0.20″ at BOWMAN SPRINGS(4580ft)
    0.13″ at Portland Interna(20ft)

  22. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z GFS ALERT
    Hint: (It’s just AFTER day 10) but. BUT…. BUT!
    Also wanted to mention for the first time this looks like a classic pinched off ridge undercutting westerlies scenario which keeps the cold air bottled up north of the boundary. IF by some chance the 00z played out we would be close to an overrunning event for PDX too. Oh it’s fun to speculate, right?….

    Williams Lake, British Columbia
    -5 for the high on November 24th. Seems legit. Chance of verification 1.4%

    Bellingham. Much colder than PDX as 850mb temps and thicknesses remain low due to the arctic air hanging around the Canadian Border and some Fraser Outflow pumping in dry/cold air.

  23. Kenny says:

    The new 12z EURO is ugly. It seems liek the midwest/east coast always get big arctic blast. They get an arctic blast early this week, followed by another arctic blast 5 to 6 days later. Both times the arctic air reaches into the deep south.

  24. Longview - 400 ft says:

    Mark, in his forecast last night, said north of Portland would receive some rain and indeed we have.

    Gotta love a great weather forecaster!!!

    To all the veterans out there in weather blog land,

    “Thank you so much for protecting the freedom we all have!!!”

  25. Jeff Raetz says:

    PDX could see strong east winds on Monday, maybe a gust of 35mph in the morning? Crown point should be rocking!

  26. Jeff Raetz says:

    PDX could see strong east winds on Monday, maybe a gust of 35mph in the morning? Crown point should be rocking!

  27. SW says:

    Not sure why any one bothers saying what’s going to happen two weeks from now. One minute it’s going to be cold, the next warm(and it almost always ends up being warm). Just yesterday some people were saying how cold it’s going to get, now they are saying how warm it’s going to get. It seems pretty easy to predict winter around here. 70-90% chance of a warm winter 10-30% chance of a cold winter, It’s not to hard to put in a guess and be right most of the time in the PNW. Who knows we may not see a 1949-1950, 1968-1969 or 1971-1972 winter again for decades. One thing that seems for sure is that the weather has changed.

    • Ben T says:

      As much as I don’t like to hear this, there is a lot of truth to this ^.

    • PaulO says:

      That´s why it is referred to as a roller coaster ride! Riding models can be fun or the ultimate in frustration.

    • SW says:

      PaulO,

      Thanks for your feed back. I wonder about these models. I know they have had success at big storms a few days, or longer, out. However, it is almost hype that they try to GUESS PNW weather 20-30-45 days out. When the EURO and GFS predicts a week long Arctic outbreak 30 days away, then I would say, it’s not just some PHD’s guessing but that real strides are being made in weather predictions(as far as the PNW winters are concerned). I do understand that people enjoy the hype and possibilities in these long range predictions.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I think we like it for the same reason people by the National Enquirer and Farmer’s Almanac. To have a peek into the future, even if there’s only a small chance it MIGHT be correct.

    • archangelmichael2 says:

      Model riding sucks. Just pay attention the WV and rader loops when an actual storm or event happens and you’ll be less frustrated.

      Let the children throw crap at each other in the playground at each model run change.

    • archangelmichael2 says:

      And most of all DON’T go to Western Weather forums during times when model riding happens. It’s the same trolls over and over again.

  28. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Only 60-70 mph at Vista House Sunday and Monday, eh Mark.
    We don’t pay much attention to winds below hurricane force, on that rock. I really like signs of winter like this. Gust of 40, can I have a 50!
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=D6193&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

  29. JJ78259 says:

    My old nieghbor will be overjoyed with this forecast his huge maple tree would give me at least five garbage cans full of yard debris when the east win blew.

  30. Kenny says:

    The new 00z GFS and EURO does not look good for the long term for snow lovers. Both models are in agreement that the arctic air spills into the Midwest now. Warm air from the SW looks like it’s ready to invade the PNW. Maybe we can see record high temps.

  31. schmit44 says:

    11/8/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:60 at Brookings (US 10( 150 ft)
    Low: 48 at DW1265 Newport(164 ft) & DW8735 Yachats(92 ft) & HERMISTON(550 ft) & AURORA(141 ft) & DUNES1(173 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:25 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 16 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 29 degrees
    DW9301 Klamath F (58/29 ) (4121 ft )
    GERBER RESERVOIR (54/25) (4950 ft)
    Bly Mountain (Or (51/22) (4920 ft)
    SPRAGUE RIVER NE (51/22) (4274 ft)
    Sand Creek (US 9 (48/19) (4525 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.57″ at North Bend Munic(16ft)
    0.54″ at WANDERER’S PEAK(4350ft)
    0.53″ at W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89ft)
    0.49″ at MT. WILSON(4002ft)

  32. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    C’mon east wind!

  33. Sifton says:

    dang!!

  34. BoringOregon says:

    1ST!!!

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