It’s a 3 day weekend for the kids and government workers because it’s Veteran’s Day Weekend. Coming up on Monday and I think the morning/midday parades are going to be dry. A deep upper-level trough, which at one point was going to come down right over us and give us a cool/wet weekend, is going to stay offshore. As a result, it’ll be hard to find rain from Friday evening through Monday evening.
Temperatures warm dramatically in the atmosphere overhead through Sunday and Monday, with 60 degree temps likely all the way up to 3,000′ or so. Of course it’s November and that real warm air won’t mix into the valleys very well (weak sun angle and short days). Still, high temps should be around 60 both days here in the Portland metro area, aided a bit by an easterly wind.
Speaking of east wind…
With a surface low pressure sitting offshore the next few days, and higher pressure eastside, we’ve got our first east wind “episode” of the cold season coming up. East wind shows up in the Gorge overnight and should blow through Tuesday morning. It won’t be that strong, just gusts 35-50 mph Sunday and Monday in the west end of the Gorge (60-70 at Vista House), but it’ll be the first time we’ll see temps in the 45-55 degree range most of the time (brrr!). Just a sign that winter is getting closer.
For the weather geeks, what a turn of events the past 3-5 days with the long-range models. Instead of a cooler than normal 1st half of November, it’s going to be near to above average. And all the storminess models have been showing (starting about now) is gone. The reason is the upper-level high being too far west out in the Pacific. As we see the next few days, all the cool air and energy is dumping out over the Pacific instead of coming directly down over us. There are hints on the GFS and ECMWF that ridging may develop directly over us maybe 8-10 days from now…maybe. Either way, the first half of November is sure going to be dead. Here are the latest two ensemble charts:
Look at the ECMWF forecast 500mb forecast for Sunday morning:
Compare that to the forecast for Sunday…from one week ago showing a cold trough over us and 850mb temps down around -2 (not shown on map):
Enjoy the weekend!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen