Cool Weather Continues, No Sign of Extreme Cold

Models are in very good agreement on the big picture over the next two weeks.  Take a look at the ECMWF height anomaly maps through the 17th of November…from last night’s run:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

What do those pretty pics mean?  The large yellow (and red in the 2nd week) area is unusually high upper-level heights in the atmosphere up around 18,000′; a block in the atmosphere with very warm air aloft.  Interesting to note the block gets stronger the 2nd week…unusual.  The blue areas indicate below average heights over us and then moving slightly offshore during the period.  The 850mb (5,000′) charts show very good agreement on the pattern persisting with very few ensemble members showing spikes either high or low:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

Here’s what I get out of this:  The upper level high is far enough west (160-170W) that cold air (what little we have in early November) will mainly dump out over the eastern Pacific and spin up into storms.  If you want an outbreak of cold arctic air here in the Pacific Northwest, you want the high around 150W.  So I don’t see a pattern to bring us an unusual early season snowfall to lower elevations.  But this pattern can be excellent for building the mountain snowpack.

Looking at this and other models, I think there’s a very good chance we’ll see some skiing within the next 2-3 weeks; before Thanksgiving.  It helps that Thanksgiving is the latest it can possibly be this year.

MarkSnow_MtHoodFcst_2013

Of course this is no guarantee…what if a warm atmospheric river rain event were to show up just before?  You never know.

I don’t see a ton of rain the next week here in the lowlands, but Thursday’s system looks like a good rain and wind producer.  Could be some 30+ mph gusts during the day Thursday as a weakening low passes by just to our north.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

36 Responses to Cool Weather Continues, No Sign of Extreme Cold

  1. Kenny says:

    The new 00z GFS deepens the L more than the 18z GFS as it curves up the coastline early Monday. Would still need it to be track more closely to the coastline. As of now looks like the coast will get high winds.

  2. Chuck on Mt Scott says:

    This outlook fits perfect into my schedule. Bring on the ski season!

  3. October 2013 in Battle Ground (Minnehaha)
    Highest High: 74.2, 6th (75.6, 6th)
    Lowest Low: 29.5, 29th (30.8, 29th)
    Highest Wind: NNE 23, 8th (WNW 22, 8th)
    Most Precip: 0.36″, 8th (0.42, 2nd)

    Total Precip: 1.55″ (1.49″)

    Avg High: 62.2 (63.6)
    Avg Low: 39 (41.4)
    Mean: 50.6 (52.5)

  4. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    12z GEM has a crazy, crazy 945mb low hitting southeast Alaska by day 10. What’s even more unusual is this isn’t deepening on a usual northeast-northward course, nope, it’s moving southeast across Alaska. Wow


    Here’s that same low 1 day earlier

    12z EURO for the first time in well over a month features a strong, consolidated jet inside 160 W.
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    Also, if that darn ridge stopped retrograding we would get nailed with an early season cold blast, but instead all of that cold air floods south right out into the Gulf of Alaska. We need to be on our toes looking for a possible wind storm pattern around the end of next week.

    • gidrons says:

      Yes, that seems counter intuitive to see a low deepen like that and not be curving northward. I find this interesting to watch even if it doesn’t hit Oregon. Its a lot of moisture in the jet with a lot of cold air to potentially pull over the ocean. Plus, its still 9 days out so its a big margin of error on its track, assuming it even develops.

    • BoringOregon says:

      Ok so, I’m trying to understand this. “12z GEM” Numerical Weather Prediction Maps.”MB” Millibars. “12z EURO” 12z EURO ENSEMBLE MODEL.?

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      Yeah, how many times have we wished for the ridge TO retrograde when it gets parked right over us. Now a little progression would be just fine. Can’t win!

    • BoringOregon says:

      I just heard “Jim Cantoresay” say some thing might get interresting next week!?!?

    • BoringOregon says:

      Jim Cantore

  5. Kenny says:

    The new 18z GFS has a possible damaging Souwester windstorm. Classic path as it turns violently up the Pacific coastline all the while strengthening.

  6. paulbeugene says:

    URGENT WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    12:54 PST EUGENE OREGON

    Normal Weather Warning has been issued. In fact, it has been in effect for past 48 hours. Do not be misled by the white color on the regional map on your NWS website. White is in fact a color signifying normal weather conditions with such warning in effect.

    Please leave garbage can lids secured. Even without any strong winds, dogs, raccoons and assorted varmint have been known to get into the garbage and spread litter on streets, causing hazardous driving conditions.

    Should the sun come out, as can be expected infrequently under normal fall and winter conditions, do not stare directly at it as you may quickly damage your eyesight.

    Please do not be fooled by the supposed myth of the “Milwaukee Dome”. Unlike in episodes of what we may consider severe weather, normal weather may quickly penetrate and overwhelm this invisible barrier, striking involved residents without warning.

    Further updates will be issued as conditions warrant.

    School districts are advised as follows: no winter weather delays or cancellations anticipated until at least December 6.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Quick, men, gather up the women and children, move them to a safe place, away from grumpy weather geeks!

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      I’ll take normal now, and extreme when we are in prime time for the best odds of snow/cold.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Haha, very nice Paul with an amusing, comedic twist on boring weather.

    • ocpaul says:

      I’m filling sand bags with cotton balls, just in case.

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Not to be argumentative, Paul, but the Milwaukee Dome clearly DOES exist. In fact, it swallowed up our friend W7 last month … I can only hope that it’s holding him hostage in a realm where active winter weather prevails. Stay gold, Erik!

  7. pappoose in scappoose says:

    “Of all the meteorological hazards of our area, which is most likely to injure or harm you?”

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/11/freezing-fog-hits-northwest-lowlands.html

  8. High Desert Mat says:

    Mark, when I was at the weather meeting at omsi two weekends ago I happened to notice Bob Shaw standing in the back of the room. He’s the ktvz chief meteorologist in Bend. Just curious if you had talked to him there or know who he is?

  9. Andrew (Near Silver Falls 1600') says:

    0.27″ of rain since midnight, temp has risen to 46.

  10. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z runs weren’t real exciting, but to me the 500mb pattern isn’t far from producing an early season cold blast. Blocking continues, but further out in the Pacific near 160-170 W. Note how STRONG it builds up towards 1055mb near the Aleutians. That’s crazy! I think if there is any weather to talk about in the next 7-10days+ the most reasonable suggestion would be a Wind Event/Storm. That’s really the only chance I see for anything remotely interesting. We need the block to shift east near 147-152 W. At the moment isn’t all that cold up in BC/AB/YK anyhow(but that’s changing soon), so why waste a great 500mb pattern now and instead have it show up after Thanksgiving – February.

    00z WRF 36km Extended Loop shows the progression of cold, arctic air southward. Modified arctic air sneaks into northeast Washington(seem images below)
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d1_x_slp+///3



  11. schmit44 says:

    11/4/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:55 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft) & RED MOUND(1753 ft)
    Low: 48 at LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:20 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft)
    Low: 5 at ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 39 degrees
    Worden (49/10 ) (4080 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.97″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)
    0.79″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    0.77″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    0.71″ at DW9126 Brightwoo(1336ft)
    0.67″ at WA7ZVY-4 Newport(128ft)
    0.66″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)

  12. paulbeugene says:

    I certainly don’t hope the Euro is right…am headed to NYC on Nov 15…flying into a NorEaster equals stuck in Wichita

  13. BoringOregon says:

    You in!!!

  14. ron says:

    I’d love to see some snow this year, but I’d settle for a good windstorm.

  15. Kenny says:

    The new 00z EURO has a monster 961mb low with what appears to be 492 thickness 9 days out. Are we 100% sure if that thing doesn’t come down it’s not sticking snow?

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