Early November Storm: Aimed at Washington

Quite a surface low pressure area forecast to deepen rapidly the next 12 hours!  Models are slightly stronger with the low this evening, sending it to about Bellingham by late tomorrow morning.  What’s different about this one is that it’s deepening quickly while moving onshore.  That should produce a huge rush of wind behind it.  Check out our RPM, which is a bit farther south with the low:

RPM_12KM_Wind_NWOR_Strong

You can see the Washington and extreme northern Oregon coast really getting nailed by the strong west-southwest wind after 6am or so.  Then take a look at the 00z WRF-GFS over western Washington.  Note the forecast of 70 mph gusts around Whidbey Island!

ww_wgsfc.18.0000

Strong south wind up through Puget Sound too.

Here in Oregon we’ll be a little too far from the center of the low to get damaging wind.  I expect gusts to 60 mph along the Coast and 30-40 mph here in the Willamette Valley.  Still, the strongest wind we’ve seen since in about a month.

MarkWarnings_Wind_Coast_Valleys

Beyond that, it’s on to Cascade snow and showers in the valleys the rest of the weekend.  Still thinking 10-15″ in the higher elevations and 6-10″ in the passes themselves.

Long range models are all over the place, but the general theme is colder than normal and still wet at times.

Enjoy the weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

75 Responses to Early November Storm: Aimed at Washington

  1. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Looking real purdy up at Hoodoo Ski area on Santiam pass. 12″ of snow!

  2. Kenny says:

    The arctic air is ready to slide on down south in the middle of the month. -15C temps near Vancouver Island.

  3. schmit44 says:

    11/3/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:56 at CW5925 Coos Bay( 49 ft) & UMATILLA RIVER B(587 ft)
    Low: 47 at LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:20 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft)
    Low: 12 at Bly Mountain (Or (4920 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 27 degrees
    Bly Mountain (Or (39/12 ) (4920 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.30″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2630ft)
    1.20″ at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5400ft)
    1.10″ at BLAZED ALDER(3650ft)
    1.00″ at MUD RIDGE(3800ft)
    0.94″ at Detroit Lake(1675ft)

  4. Andrew (Near Silver Falls 1600') says:

    Here is a little climo nugget.

    This October was only the 15th at SLE with less than 1″ of precip. Of the previous 14 years the following winters are a bit of a mixed bag. Some fantastic winters, but also some major duds. 11 of the following November’s featured below average precip. The 3 Novembers that had above average precip were.

    1964
    1988
    2006

    All three of those winters had arctic air, with 2/3 having a major arctic blast, and 2006 having a modified arctic airmass in January.

  5. Andrew (Near Silver Falls 1600') says:

    43/38 up here today.

    About 0.20″ of rain at last checked.

    Currently cloudy and 40.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      42.2 here, but jumping around with the passing clouds. Feels colder. Gonna take awhile to get used to the cooler temps. Way more fun to work in though.

  6. 49.4 for a high here in Battle Ground. My first sub 50 since May 22nd.

  7. JJ78259 says:

    Beautiful 78 degrees and sunny at the New Braunfels Texas Wurstfest their huge Oktoberfest. 5 different bands playing the chicken dance all over the venue. To much fun, too much beer!

  8. Lurkyloo says:

    Feels cold out this evening. Maybe the early dark makes it more so. What’s next, folks?

  9. BoringOregon says:

    Come on all ready. I want to see a Really big storm!!

  10. Sara says:

    Dear Mark,
    I think it would be super nice if all blog posts had the date and time right at the top.

  11. Jeff Raetz says:

    http://classic.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KORMILWA11

    ———————————————————————————————
    Averages\Extremes for the month of October 2013

    ———————————————————————————————
    Average temperature = 51.6°F (Lowest average temperature on record for October)
    Average humidity = 82%
    Average dewpoint = 45.8°F
    Average barometer = 30.122 in.
    Average windspeed = 0.3 mph
    Average gustspeed = 1.1 mph
    Average direction = 77° (ENE)
    Rainfall for month = 1.094 in. (Driest October on record) (October average is 3.42”)
    Rainfall for year = 25.122 in. (Average 10 months in is 29.73)
    Maximum rain per minute = 0.012 in on day 23 at time 15:00
    Maximum temperature = 74.9°F on day 22 at time 15:30
    Minimum temperature = 32.0°F on day 30 at time 08:02 (Coldest October temperature on record)
    Maximum humidity = 100% on day 02 at time 04:13
    Minimum humidity = 34% on day 28 at time 16:15
    Maximum dewpoint = 62.2°F on day 21 at time 13:01
    Minimum dewpoint = 29.2°F on day 28 at time 15:54
    Maximum pressure = 30.47 in. on day 04 at time 10:47
    Minimum pressure = 29.74 in. on day 02 at time 05:48
    Maximum windspeed = 9.2 mph from 00°( N ) on day 28 at time 15:49
    Maximum gust speed = 19.6 mph from 00°( N ) on day 28 at time 15:49 (Lowest max gust speed for October on record)
    Maximum heat index = 77.6°F on day 22 at time 15:28

    Avg daily max temp :62.9°F
    Avg daily min temp :43.4°F
    Total windrun = 238.4miles

    Record low wind chill temperature = 31.8 on day 30 at time 06:01
    Record daily rain = .43” on day 1
    Record rain in 1 hour = 0.15” on day 1 at time 07:43
    Warmest day (6am to 6pm) = 73.0 on day 06
    Coldest night (6pm to 6am) = 39.2 on day 30
    Coldest day (6am to 6pm) = 46.4 on day 30
    Warmest night (6pm to 6am) = 56.8 on day 07

    ———————————–
    Daily rain totals
    ———————————–
    00.01 in. on day 1
    00.65 in. on day 2
    00.02 in. on day 3
    00.01 in. on day 4
    00.01 in. on day 6
    00.18 in. on day 7
    00.03 in. on day 8
    00.01 in. on day 10
    00.01 in. on day 12
    00.01 in. on day 15
    00.01 in. on day 20
    00.01 in. on day 23
    00.02 in. on day 25
    00.11 in. on day 27
    00.01 in. on day 28

    *Records since October 2008*

  12. David B. says:

    2nd frost of the season here on Bainbridge Island. I was one of the lucky ones and never lost power yesterday.

  13. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Burrito wrapper alert!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    305 AM PST SUN NOV 3 2013

    THE GIST OF ALL OF THIS IS THAT TODAY IS ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE WE COULD SEE A STRAY COLD CORE FUNNEL CLOUD OR TWO ALONG THE OREGON COAST… WILLAMETTE VALLEY…AND/OR PORTLAND METRO AREA FROM ANY VIGOROUS SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR ENHANCED LIFT…A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WRN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT SUNBREAKS CAN DEVELOP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS INLAND. THESE COLD CORE FUNNELS USUALLY DO NOT TOUCH THE GROUND.

  14. schmit44 says:

    11/2/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:62 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft) & CW5984 Pilot Roc(1749 ft) & Hermiston Munici(636 ft)
    Low: 52 at LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:35 at ELK CREEK(6576 ft)
    Low: 17 at HOWARD Mt Howard (8150 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 32 degrees
    Lakeview, Lake C (52/20 ) (4734 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.00″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    1.91″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  15. BoringOregon says:

    That is so cool not my video but found it on youtube!!

  16. High Desert Mat says:

    Light snow now in Redmond. More like flurries. Chilly winds out of north making it feel cold. 34.9 at my house right now

    • Mark says:

      Nice! That is often our big “Winter Storm 2014” event in the metro area for the entire season.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      28.7 now. Calm winds. Clear skies. Maybe a dusting by morning here but then nothing really til next weekend when it looks like a little better shot of some action.

  17. Sifton says:

    Musta been a quick/small squall type event blow through about 15 min ago. Yards a mess along with a couple big a** fir tree limbs down, fun………..

  18. MasterNate says:

    Very pssed off donkey right over Molalla now. Intense rain, hail and thunder/lightning. Better than any we had in summer!

  19. archangelmichael2 says:

    Western Weather drama is at it again as they are not even talking about the winds up there. Instead they argue about a bridge closure.

  20. Longview - 400 ft says:

    The winds seem to more gusty now than early this morning!!!!

    WOW!!!!

  21. schmit44 says:

    **NOVEMBER 2013 WEATHER CONTEST ENTRY FORM**
    Deadline to enter is tonight at midnight.
    http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/NOV2013/add.php

  22. David B. says:

    Definitely a blustery day here on Bainbridge Island. Lights have been going on and off since this morning. Still have power at the moment.

  23. Sifton says:

    very nice out, blown 4cast?? lol…………

  24. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Get the burrito wrappers outta the vehicles folks!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    922 AM PDT SAT NOV 2 2013

    ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A STRONG COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. 06Z NAM SHOWS 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -30 DEG C OVER THE PORTLAND METRO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD TRIGGER A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD COME WITH SMALL HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW.

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      One or two early November strays, huh? We must be relentlessly on watch!

    • Andrew (Near Silver Falls 1600') says:

      I had some small hail with a heavier shower earlier.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      We MUST! Hahaah!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      We better watch this, Dave:

      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
      338 PM PDT SAT NOV 2 2013

      .LONG TERM…GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE PATTERN OVER THE NE PACIFIC FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE LATEST 18Z GFS HAS MIGRATED TO THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS CURRENT
      SOLUTION HAS WARM ADVECTION SPREADING RAIN INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON…THEN A STRONG LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MOVING INLAND SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY PERIOD THAT COULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY HIGH WINDS. IT WILL DEPEND UPON WHAT THE MODELS DO THE NEXT FEW DAYS…AND THEY HAVE ALREADY BEEN ERRATIC.

  25. Hal in Aims says:

    the s.c.r. appears to be eating a lot of the moisture now…..

    • vernonia1 says:

      uh…well here in Vernonia it is bright & sunny Have had some gusty wind but no rain to speak of since I got to work @ 10

  26. Starting to get windy here.Winds blowing 25 mph gusting to near 50 mph as of 8:30 am

    • Winds whipping the trees pretty good now leaves flying every where power flickering on and off Peak wind gust 55 mph

    • Pretty good wind storm up here in seattle area currently 45,000 in the dark. Peak wind gust 60 power out for the last couple of hrs hopefully it be back on before dark But expecting it may not be back on till later this evening with so many people in the dark. Right on the money for the wind storm.

  27. Peak wind of 28 mph here in BG at 6:14 this morning. Pretty typical for November.

  28. Andrew (Near Silver Falls 1600') says:

    Quite a bit of rain fell in a short time this morning. 0.92″ since midnight.

    • Andrew (Near Silver Falls 1600') says:

      November is statistically the 2nd wettest month of the year up here with an average of 10.86″ of precip.

  29. So far gusts are about what I expected. As of 6:00 AM, we have:

    PDX: 29 mph
    UAO: 33 mph
    MMV: 31 mph
    SLE: 31 mph

    If the low strengthens as it moves through, those numbers could be bested by a few more mph.

  30. Emily Waldman says:

    Getting breezy up here! I like it! There she blows! Our normal fall weather! I think there is a warm element to this! Our weather station(the nearest one)is reading 54 degrees at present! Only forecasting 50 rain & windy! Bring it on! Also I like next week’s forecast if it stays true the 9th-10th! Highs of 40 & lows of 32-34! Interesting! I don’t think we’ve had SNOW on my hubby’s b-day, the 10th! We will see!

  31. archangelmichael2 says:

    It’s getting gusty. Near gales now hitting the side of the house. Surprised nobody is chiming in on wind reports. :/

  32. schmit44 says:

    11/1/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:72 at AGNESS2( 247 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 52 at Roseburg Regiona(525 ft) & Fremont Bridge W(270 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:41 at WOLF CREEK(5700 ft) & HARL BUTTE(6071 ft) & ANEROID LAKE #2(7300 ft)
    Low: 17 at Lorella (4160 ft ) & Worden (4080 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 48 degrees
    Lorella (65/17 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.34″ at DW2889 West Linn(650ft)
    0.31″ at EW1133 Lake Oswe(341ft)

  33. boydo3 N Albany says:

    You can tell we’re getting some weather when Mark starts posting daily…….get out those muck boots people, you’re gonna need em!
    Oh and those model riding chaps too!

  34. paulbeugene says:

    A nonevent for I-5 corridor S of Seattle.

    Looks to me some sort of a snowpack will develop over higher Cascade elevations. Focus of precipitation gradually shifting south over next two weeks. Not looking like tons of precip though, 2-3 inches liquid maximum over 5000′ over next 10 days or so, translating to perhaps 20″ accumulation (in 10 days) at Timberline Lodge.

    Definitely looks as if things cooling down in NW Canada. Not seeing any deep cold airmasses that have any chance of making it S of 100 Mile House. 1030-something mb highs over Yukon translate to cold air staying north.

    Looking at GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean 500mb charts it appears that the 500mb positive anomaly center shifts gradually NW from off our coast toward central Gulf of Alaska then to SW Alaska with positive values in excess of 400m by days 10-15.

    Basically, a can’t lose proposition for me personally. If ridge pokes up too far W, Alaska gets quite cold, air dumps S over G of AK and blankets the ski areas for a good start to the ski season the weekend prior to Thanksgiving. If ridge is a bit farther E, may tap into cold air from other side of the pole and send it here for an mid-late November arctic outbreak. The first scenario seems more plausible than the second. Get your skis tuned/waxed/replaced/whatever. Fill Bruno’s keg with whisky.

  35. Leaving the hatches unbattened…

  36. BoringOregon says:

    OMG 1STT!!!

%d bloggers like this: