Last night’s ECMWF monthly run. Some interesting changes from the previous two runs. Appears that upper-level high wants to be a little farther west, leaving some sort of troughing (cool) over us through mid-November. That says cooler than average temps for the first half of the month. If the trough is over or west of us, that’s also very wet.
The cool trend shows up nicely in the 12z ECMWF ensemble 850mb chart:
Note the red line showing the average of all the ensembles; it’s below the average of +4 to +6 during this period.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
FOX 12 Weather Blog 
We must ALWAYS be relentlessly on watch!
OK this is just a coincidence, not a forecast. However the first frost in the winter of 68-69 was Thursday October 31st. This year it was Tuesday October 29th. And the days on the calender for the days of the month are the same this year I.E Halloween is Thursday the 31st for both years. Just a spooky coincidence or? Peace.
***Just a friendly reminder, Daylight savings occurs Saturday night, that means the Euro comes out at 11 instead of 12!!! Along with that, all models come out a hour earlier.
…and that its dark when I get home from work
Anyone know where Erik has been? Haven’t heard from him in awhile. Did the dome collapse?
yea, I thank I broke Erik. He kind of wen’t of on me the other day.
First!
Its a little ironic. After all the insults and attacks Erik got, it was the “first” contest that drove him away. At least for now….
Mark, Hilarious!!!
You in!
OMG! Classic……..
I’m in…. What a cold, crisp, night 🙂
The euro is showing a columbus day type windstorm for the PNW next week. Got to watch out for this.
Huh? Where do you see this?
what are you talking about?
http://www.historylink.org/index.cfm?DisplayPage=output.cfm&file_id=5325
No it is not. That storm is drifting down from the North, there will be no pressure gradient for us…it fills in and spreads out…No storm there.
Uh……….not seeing that Chris.
…if there was anything resembling a columbus day setup people would be jumping all over it, here and in every other weather group with any kind of northwest focus…
Not the models I’m looking at.
996mb lows don’t cause 100 MPH winds..lol. Also need it to come up the coast from SSW to NNE.
Right at 30f at my place on Clear Creek (Fisher’s Mill) this morning.
Wunderground says 70% chance of snow on Sunday for North Plains, and even shows a snowflake for the graphic. Yeah.. It’s not credible in the slightest, but it’s always fun when snowflakes start showing up on forecasts! Tis the season folks!
Last night’s Euro run showed 850mb temps around -4c for Saturday night.
Low 42.3F this am. Lowest so far this fall is 40.9F. No 30’s, yet…
I certainly agree, we need to watch this one. And all of em!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
922 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013
MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE
LOCATION OF WHERE THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND. THE DIFFERENCE AS FAR AS THE MODELS ARE CONCERNED IS VERY SMALL BUT A SMALL DIFFERENCE IN WHERE THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND WILL HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND ACROSS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF PUT THE LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH SEATTLE AROUND 18Z SAT WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING INLAND ALONG A KUIL-KBLI PATH. THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OF THE GFS WITH THE LOW. THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS WOULD BE WINDIER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SINCE IT IS DAY 5 WILL JUST MENTION WINDY IN SOME LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS DEFINITELY ONE TO WATCH.
Well that’s good a hard frezz. With some wind will really knock the rest of the Leafs off the trees!!
Betcha it was chilly on the rock this am!
DW6193 Crown Point
29 Oct 8:07 am PDT 39 ESE 20G27
31.9° overnight, my first frost/freeze of the season. Seems a bit early compared to previous years.
31.4 in Oregon City this morning. We had a hard freeze here in early September in 2003.
You sure about that, Paul? I just checked the min/max temp data for Sept 2003 and PDX never dropped lower than 48 degrees during the month.
I looked at properties on frost photos and got a Sept. time stamp. I think it was an Adobe process date, not a ‘taken’ date. oops.
Made it all the way down to 27F here @ ~7:00am. Coldest of the season so far by a good 5 degrees.
Frost on the rooftops of Winslow, Bainbridge Island this morning. First time this season.
Down to 31.9F on my thermo near U of O in Eugene (at least 28 at EUG airport).
Clouds arrive by 2-5am tonight per NAM, earliest N, latest S. Could maybe get another freeze tonight down in EUG but is doubtful N of Salem.
Looks like trick or treating should be mostly dry, especially at valley floor. May be some light rain, drizzle etc in Sandy, etc with westerly flow.
31.1 here. First freeze!
The severity of the smoke has died off somewhat as it is no longer smelling in the kitchen/garage but you can still get a whiff of it outside which sucks.
Want me to send a free whiff up there for you to smell?
10/28/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:65 at W7KKE-3 Road’s E( 89 ft) & KB7QWZ Garibaldi(10 ft)
Low: 49 at LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft)
Coldest:
High:28 at DIMLKE(4726 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
Low: 19 at TIMOTHY (6099 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 28 degrees
ILLINOIS VALLEY (64/36 ) (1389 ft )
TILLAMOOK (63/35) (11 ft)
Heaviest Rainfall:
1.17″ at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400ft)
1.10″ at OWYHEE RIDGE(4400ft)
0.87″ at MALHEUR RVR BLO(3305ft)
0.70″ at SILVER CREEK(5720ft)
0.67″ at MCDERMITT 26N(4464ft)
0.57″ at GRASSY MOUNTAIN(4560ft)
Owyhee Dam gets about 8″ of rain annually. Today’s 1.17″ total is impressive for such a dry location.
35 to 63 is a pretty good range for Tillamook. What a little offshore flow does.
Good! Hope it gets this smokey stagnant weather outta here!
All the neighbors have been in a *See who can burn the fastest* race on leaves causing the sunset to look like a forest fire has hit.
Me and Mom are both allergic to the smoke and smell it when going into the kitchen/garage and outside.
It’s making me feel dizzy a lot. ;(
You Portlanders have the Gorge winds to keep the crap away so none of you know the excitement you are missing out on.
Yippy – only 7-10 days until Early Winter arrives!!!
Let’s get the Winter snowpack started!
Looks like the usual valley rain with snow above about 4,000 ft. Thanks for posting the ECMWF ensembles.
So it could get colder and wetter than usual for the first part of the month? Good to know! Thanks, Mark.
You in!
Second, hey it works for me.
Third! Hahaah!
I know, right?? Now I’ve got double seniority in the Secret Order of Albino Donkeys — woohoo! ;]
You’ve lost your touch, big time, BoringOregon!
I’m in this time!
Ahhhh, man I thank W7 did it!!
I think it’s time for time to re-enter the blog. A little early for me this year than I usually do. 🙂 I’m in!