ECMWF Month-Long Maps: Chilly 1st Half of November?

Last night’s ECMWF monthly run.  Some interesting changes from the previous two runs.  Appears that upper-level high wants to be a little farther west, leaving some sort of troughing (cool) over us through mid-November.  That says cooler than average temps for the first half of the month.  If the trough is over or west of us, that’s also very wet.

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

The cool trend shows up nicely in the 12z ECMWF ensemble 850mb chart:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland
Note the red line showing the average of all the ensembles; it’s below the average of +4 to +6 during this period.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

54 Responses to ECMWF Month-Long Maps: Chilly 1st Half of November?

  1. runrain says:

    We must ALWAYS be relentlessly on watch!

  2. WEATHERDAN says:

    OK this is just a coincidence, not a forecast. However the first frost in the winter of 68-69 was Thursday October 31st. This year it was Tuesday October 29th. And the days on the calender for the days of the month are the same this year I.E Halloween is Thursday the 31st for both years. Just a spooky coincidence or? Peace.

  3. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    ***Just a friendly reminder, Daylight savings occurs Saturday night, that means the Euro comes out at 11 instead of 12!!! Along with that, all models come out a hour earlier.

  4. High Desert Mat says:

    Anyone know where Erik has been? Haven’t heard from him in awhile. Did the dome collapse?

  5. chris says:

    The euro is showing a columbus day type windstorm for the PNW next week. Got to watch out for this.

  6. Ron says:

    Right at 30f at my place on Clear Creek (Fisher’s Mill) this morning.

  7. SnowedIn - North Plains says:

    Wunderground says 70% chance of snow on Sunday for North Plains, and even shows a snowflake for the graphic. Yeah.. It’s not credible in the slightest, but it’s always fun when snowflakes start showing up on forecasts! Tis the season folks!

  8. Low 42.3F this am. Lowest so far this fall is 40.9F. No 30’s, yet…

  9. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I certainly agree, we need to watch this one. And all of em!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
    922 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

    MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE
    LOCATION OF WHERE THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND. THE DIFFERENCE AS FAR AS THE MODELS ARE CONCERNED IS VERY SMALL BUT A SMALL DIFFERENCE IN WHERE THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND WILL HAVE A BIG
    EFFECT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND ACROSS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF PUT THE LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH SEATTLE AROUND 18Z SAT WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING INLAND ALONG A KUIL-KBLI PATH. THE CANADIAN
    MODEL IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OF THE GFS WITH THE LOW. THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS WOULD BE WINDIER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SINCE IT IS DAY 5 WILL JUST MENTION WINDY IN SOME LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS DEFINITELY ONE TO WATCH.

    • BoringOregon says:

      Well that’s good a hard frezz. With some wind will really knock the rest of the Leafs off the trees!!

  10. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Betcha it was chilly on the rock this am!
    DW6193 Crown Point
    29 Oct 8:07 am PDT 39 ESE 20G27

  11. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    31.9° overnight, my first frost/freeze of the season. Seems a bit early compared to previous years.

    • ocpaul says:

      31.4 in Oregon City this morning. We had a hard freeze here in early September in 2003.

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      You sure about that, Paul? I just checked the min/max temp data for Sept 2003 and PDX never dropped lower than 48 degrees during the month.

    • ocpaul says:

      I looked at properties on frost photos and got a Sept. time stamp. I think it was an Adobe process date, not a ‘taken’ date. oops.

  12. SnowedIn - North Plains says:

    Made it all the way down to 27F here @ ~7:00am. Coldest of the season so far by a good 5 degrees.

  13. David B. says:

    Frost on the rooftops of Winslow, Bainbridge Island this morning. First time this season.

  14. paulbeugene says:

    Down to 31.9F on my thermo near U of O in Eugene (at least 28 at EUG airport).
    Clouds arrive by 2-5am tonight per NAM, earliest N, latest S. Could maybe get another freeze tonight down in EUG but is doubtful N of Salem.
    Looks like trick or treating should be mostly dry, especially at valley floor. May be some light rain, drizzle etc in Sandy, etc with westerly flow.

  15. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    31.1 here. First freeze!

  16. archangelmichael2 says:

    The severity of the smoke has died off somewhat as it is no longer smelling in the kitchen/garage but you can still get a whiff of it outside which sucks.

    Want me to send a free whiff up there for you to smell?

  17. schmit44 says:

    10/28/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:65 at W7KKE-3 Road’s E( 89 ft) & KB7QWZ Garibaldi(10 ft)
    Low: 49 at LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:28 at DIMLKE(4726 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 19 at TIMOTHY (6099 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 28 degrees
    ILLINOIS VALLEY (64/36 ) (1389 ft )
    TILLAMOOK (63/35) (11 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.17″ at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400ft)
    1.10″ at OWYHEE RIDGE(4400ft)
    0.87″ at MALHEUR RVR BLO(3305ft)
    0.70″ at SILVER CREEK(5720ft)
    0.67″ at MCDERMITT 26N(4464ft)
    0.57″ at GRASSY MOUNTAIN(4560ft)

  18. archangelmichael2 says:

    Good! Hope it gets this smokey stagnant weather outta here!

    All the neighbors have been in a *See who can burn the fastest* race on leaves causing the sunset to look like a forest fire has hit.

    Me and Mom are both allergic to the smoke and smell it when going into the kitchen/garage and outside.

    It’s making me feel dizzy a lot. ;(

    You Portlanders have the Gorge winds to keep the crap away so none of you know the excitement you are missing out on.

  19. Yippy – only 7-10 days until Early Winter arrives!!!

  20. Looks like the usual valley rain with snow above about 4,000 ft. Thanks for posting the ECMWF ensembles.

  21. Lurkyloo says:

    So it could get colder and wetter than usual for the first part of the month? Good to know! Thanks, Mark.

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