ECMWF Month-Long Maps: Chilly 1st Half of November?

October 28, 2013

Last night’s ECMWF monthly run.  Some interesting changes from the previous two runs.  Appears that upper-level high wants to be a little farther west, leaving some sort of troughing (cool) over us through mid-November.  That says cooler than average temps for the first half of the month.  If the trough is over or west of us, that’s also very wet.





The cool trend shows up nicely in the 12z ECMWF ensemble 850mb chart:

Note the red line showing the average of all the ensembles; it’s below the average of +4 to +6 during this period.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen