More Sunshine Ahead

photo This week I was sent to Aulani Resort on Oahu to “check it out” and do a bunch of live shots Wednesday-Friday for a week-long getaway we are giving away on Good Day Oregon next week.  A tough business trip, but not it’s all pleasure for a few more days.  But I’m making the kids do their homework today…what a good dad eh?

It appears the fine October weather is going to continue.  As some others have noted, it’s highly doubtful our current weather pattern means anything with respect to the coming winter weather.   So just enjoy!

Here’s the 00z ECMWF chart:


We stay well above average tempwise through the end of the month.  That’s a little less than two weeks away.

The 1-10 day ECMWF precipitation forecast is still zero, as is the 6-10 day GFS forecast (from the 6z):




And the REAL reason for this posting…

I don’t know how many times I have to say it, but I’m real tired of the drama that goes on in the comments.  There has been some trolling the last week or so, and I’ve put 3 different people on moderation the past month.  That doesn’t mean you can’t post, but it means the comment won’t post until I let it through.  I do that if someone has demonstrated they can’t have a conversation without being drunk or getting in a verbal altercation with others for example.  Also, if you have a problem with someone you SEND THEM AN EMAIL OR FB MESSAGE!  You don’t try to post a trolling comment on here.  The only reason you would do that is for fun drama.  Save that for somewhere else.

There ARE at least two different FB groups that I participate in at times, they each have their own merits.  They are closed groups, which means you need permission to get in.  That’s between you and the folks that run those groups, it has nothing to do with me.Please don’t denigrate one or the other in these comments:



Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

158 Responses to More Sunshine Ahead

  1. BoringOregon says:

    Welcome back Mark!!

  2. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    I don’t mean to start a conversation on the winter of 2008 butttt wasn’t the October of 2008 warm as well? I honestly can’t recall myself in full detail how warm it was but it does make me wonder if the same similar pattern is occurring. ^_^

  3. David B. says:

    A beautiful sunny afternoon, but the fog is stubbornly hanging around over the water. Even Eagle Harbor, a fairly small inlet, has its fogbank. So odd to hear foghorns on a bright, clear afternoon. Odd or no, it beats day after day of nothing but gloom.

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    Temp seems to be peaking in the mid to high 60,s in Salem today. Down from 74 on Tuesday. Now looks likely next week will be quit cool but still sunny. Mark will be in for quite a shock when he returns from Hawaii, temps were in the 80,s there. Really looking forward to the conference at OMSI on Saturday. Should be some very interesting presentations. Very foggy out this morning but clear out now. Peace.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Salem at 3:00 PM is 70 degrees. Didn’t think it would get this warm. Almost no breeze either, so it feels really nice outside.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Should be 4:00 PM

    • David B. says:

      Just took a look at the local observations in the Puget Sound area. Most areas look like they burned off today and are in the upper 50s or even low 60s. But beach locations are mostly stuck in the upper 40s. Those of us without expensive waterfront property finally have the last laugh.

  5. ashley watson says:

    i am trying to decide where to move sandy which is 1,000 ft or to some hills in washougal at bout 600-700 ft. which area would have more snow? whould the being real close to the gorge mean the snow level that would be 1, 000 ft in the south and west part of portland be 300 ft lower near the gorge?

    ppbe portland be like a

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Uh English please. Lol, just kidding. You’d definitely have more east winds and ice events near the gorge and when it all turns to rain in Portland after an event then u get a prolonged event due to the winds. Me personally, id prefer to live near the gorge myself. Even over the high desert where I currently live.

    • alohabb says:

      How about moving to a good place where you feel more comfortable….don’t trust us fools!!! LOL

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Ashley, I’d say Sandy would be a good bet. It’s close to PDX and also close to the mountain. I haven’t spent much time in Washougal — except for summer days at the river — but if you’re looking to be close to snow, yet not too remote, I’d stay on the OR side. Happy house-hunting! 🙂

    • Shawn in Scappoose says:

      I would rather be on the North side of the Columbia then the South.
      It will rain first in Sandy than it will in Washougal in a East wind situation at the elevations your talking about.

      On shore flow with snow above 500′. Sandy would be a good spot to be.

  6. David B. says:

    Very strange out there right now. There’s the odd bluish patches in the sky and at times there’s this very bright round light that’s so bright it hurts to look at visible. WTF? 🙂

    • David B. says:

      Completely clear now! First non-completely-overcast day in over a week.

    • W7ENK says:

      We’ve been alternating between intense sun showers and light star sprinkles for the past week down here in PDX, on about a 12 hour rotation. It’s quite beautiful, actually! 😀

  7. WEATHERDAN says:

    Not trying to insult anyone but I love the sunshine. If it stays this way most of the Winter it’s ok with me. Now I know we need a decent snowpack each Winter and I’m sure we will get it this Winter. As a matter of fact several of those who will present at this years OMSI weather conference have stated that they think it may be a wild Winter weatherwise, So the rain and the wind and the snow will probably be here in time to make for a great Winter. In the mean time there is beauty in a foggy morning the way it hides the trees. Or in a golden sunny afternoon when the sun dapples off the multicolored leaves And best of all no property damage is done. Now I would hope to see a big honking snowstorm in December and have a White Christmas. Also a storm or two at the beach would be great for wave watching provided if it not too damaging. In the meantime I will just enjoy what we have. Now would be I know some of you want the crummy weather now. Please don’t feel insulted, that is not my intent. But I get enough nasty weather each Winter to satisfy me without impinging on the Fall. So I hope you get the weather you seek. Just not right away. Maybe around Thanksgiving would be nice. In the meantime enjoy. Peace.

  8. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    How about that 12z GFS op heh???

  9. paulbeugene says:

    12z still on board for back door surge of continental air early next week. Euro operational model was backing off this solution but as Jesse mentioned the ensemble mean was colder than op run.
    Canadian on board too. UKMET not on board yet. Given that GFS has trended colder, confidence growing.
    This is not going to be some insane cold blast. Boundary layer atmosphere may dry out considerably with dew points into 20s. Gradients may be a bit of a problem so decoupling may not happen early enough in the early morning hours to get temps below 25.
    Even when it got to 16 on Nov 1 2002 the high was 60.

  10. David B. says:

    Visibility of 1/10 mile or less on Bainbridge this morning.

  11. gidrons says:

    So who is going to the AMS meeting at OMSI?

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Apparently no one is going, Gid. :[ (My dyslexia always wants to call you Gridiron.) I’ll shoot for that one thing at Stark St. later in the year. Hope someone can come up with a video or play-by-play from OMSI, though.

  12. schmit44 says:

    10/22/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:82 at EW1735 Central P(1285 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 62 at EW2235 Troutdale(1381 ft) & KK7N Troutdale(203 ft) & DW6006 Troutdale(262 ft)

    High:50 at NERRS MET SITE A(10 ft) & YACHTS Yachats(82 ft)
    Low: 18 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 53 degrees
    PRINEVILLE 4NW (79/26 ) (2840 ft )
    Lorella (75/22) (4160 ft)
    Beatty (73/20) (4320 ft)
    Worden (73/20) (4080 ft)
    Horse Ridge (US (72/19) (4160 ft)
    FOSTER FLAT (71/18) (5000 ft)

  13. paulbeugene says:

    Continentic front still shown on models next Monday. Willamette Valley Lows Tues-Wed 28-38. Highs 52-62.
    GFS, Canadian show this. Euro not in til an hour from now. GFS ensemble in overall agreement, just not as cold as operational.

    Pattern change suggested into first week of November. Enjoy the sun as we may not see this long of a stretch of clear skies (in afternoon at least) until next July.

    Hoping dry weather lasts til Halloween so the props (400w black light, fog machine, etc) can stay out til then.

  14. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Yea, I’ve been real busy working on my album, and also been outside.

    00z GFS
    Shortwave dropping out of Alberta continues to head even further west

    If you remember the past several days it was shown to slide well east of us down into Montana/North Dakota, then the next few runs trended further west into Idaho/western Montana. Then Monday’s runs showed it clipping eastern Washington/Oregon. Well tonight’s 00z is even further west taking the energy diving is straight down through Washington.

    Image posted below.

    It’s not a very cold air mass, 500mb heights aren’t that impressive and the bitterly arctic air is well detached. So basically the biggest difference in relation to how far west this digs is it’ll either be a bit cooler, noticeably chilly, or quite a bit colder. As well the strength of offshore flow/gorge east wind hinges on this too. Much drier dewpoints, so wind sheltered areas could be well down into the 20’s.

    00z Canadian on board with this too. I just saw the latest EURO weeklies and they strongly support retrogression into November.

    • David B. says:

      Let’s hope it materializes. I’m ready for an end to the fog, fog, fog up here in Puget Sound country.

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      It just does not look like the westerlies are going to consolidate inside 140-150 W… split flow and ridges.

    • W7ENK says:

      It really is a shame that there is no significant snowcover to our North. Imagine how cold it might be if everything down into the Columbia Basin had at least 5 inches of snow on the ground!

      With that in mind, I think this Omega Block is more of a double edged sword for us. If it retrogrades, and especially if it sets up residence farter to the West and sits there, that pattern could be golden for us in the Western Valleys all the way through the New Year (conceivably). However, with zero snowpack up North now, this pattern is preventing that snowpack from building, which means that any arctic air moving our way will moderate too much as it travels over all that warm bare ground. Plus, there’s no moisture to work with anyway, which means any cold air would just be a waste.

      Interesting, for sure. Who knows what will happen?!?

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Think you nailed it with the lack of snow cover in the Great White North/Columbia Basin thought, W7.
      Lotsa cold air could be building to join the party with a north/east flow if we had the snow cover.

    • W7ENK says:

      And having just said that, Whitehorse, NWT, Canada received their first snowfall of the season this morning.

      So, I guess the clock begins ticking now? Just a bit late, but not too bad.

    • So will we see rain on Halloween in SW WA as the 10 day says?

  15. davidbarts says:

    Bainbridge Island wx: Fog. Low 49, high 52. Starting to get dense out there tonight. Surprised NWS hasn’t issued a dense fog advisory yet.

  16. Models do seem to be suggesting a strong flow from the north into the north central US with some indication of a westerly push forcing a nice cold east wind event in about 6 days. No precip. in sight.

    • davidbarts says:

      A cold east wind event should scour the fog out of the Puget Sound lowlands, so I’ll take it. Time for a little variety.

  17. W7ENK says:

    Hillsboro hit 78 today. Broke a 76 year record high!


    What happened winter 1937-38???

    • Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL in Hillsboro says:

      A wet November and a very wet December with a bit of snow.

      5.4″ total for Portland, but that was spread across several events from the look of things. No real arctic outbreaks that I can see. The lowest temp for Hillsboro was 24 degrees and lowest high was 33.

      Feb-April was very wet. Late spring looked dry.

    • BoringOregon says:

      What happen to rob, must of took the day off!

    • Really not much of a need for analysis right now. Its been pretty much the same for numerous days now. That will change as we get closer to November though.

  18. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    74.6° for my high today, the warmest reading of the month so far. That has to be at least 12° above normal; not bad for October 22nd!
    Others have made this comment before, but when the switch eventually flips back to cool & wet, I think we’ll see some extreme weather events this Fall & Winter. Not based on anything scientific, just a hunch, really.

  19. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Yesterday afternoon and again this afternoon I noticed a thin layer of smoke/haze overhead, moving S to N along the Willamette Valley. No clouds present on visible satellite imagery (except right along the coast & offshore), so am I right in assuming that it’s the result of field burning or prescribed slash burns to the south? Upon closer examination, the visible satellite seems to show a couple of small plumes in the foothills of the coast range & Cascades, maybe another plume SW of Bend. No pertinent info on Inciweb or DEQ websites… inquiring minds want to know!

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Dave, it has been smoky over here the past four days. I see smoke and haze to the south of Bend and more to the east towards Prineville. They are prescribed burns according to the news over here but not sure what the smoke on the west side is from.

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      Hey, thanks Mat. That’s probably the source of the smoke I’ve been seeing. Not sure if DEQ even allows field burning anymore.

    • Lots of residential back yard burning, agricultural burning and maybe some slash burns in the foothills. Combined with the inversion that is upon us and… viola! polluted, nasty air.

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