Weekend Update & Winter Weather Meeting Details

We’ve got some really dead weather coming up the next 7-10 days…lots of upper level ridging near us or split-flow over us through the period.  That means little or no rain as we head into the 2nd half of October.  That’s good, I have some small outdoor projects I want to get done before the monsoon rains return at some point.

After some showers Saturday, we get the “fog to sun” routine Sunday.  Beyond that, quite a period of weak or moderately strong offshore flow for ALL of next week.  That means abundant sunshine and temperatures finally above average.  Take a look at the WRF-GFS cross-section for Monday afternoon through Friday…relative humidity below 70% through the atmosphere through the entire period:

kpdx.x.th

The annual WHAT WILL THE WINTER BE LIKE Oregon AMS meeting is just two weeks from Saturday.  It’ll be in the usual spot at the usual time.  That’s OMSI, 10am Saturday, October 26th.  Here is the press release:

 

Meteorologists Will Once Again Gather in Portland to Forecast Upcoming Winter Weather
Portland, Oregon (September 20th 2013) – The Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) will once again host the 21st annual Winter Weather Forecast Conference Saturday, October 26th @ 10 AM in Portland. Meteorologists from across the Pacific Northwest will once again descend on the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) to give their prognostications for the upcoming winter. This is the single largest winter weather forecast conference of its kind in the Pacific Northwest. This conference is free and open to all ages of the general public. With the absence of El Nino or La Nina at the present time, could the Pacific Northwest be in for more wild and record setting weather this winter? Will it be a good ski season in the Cascades? The Oregon AMS will also take a closer look at the accuracy of those ever-popular Farmers Almanac forecasts. Are they really as accurate as they claim to be? A $300 Davis home weather station will be raffled off to one lucky winner. Media outlets are once again encouraged to advance and cover this annual event. The Oregon AMS is available for media interviews in advance of the conference. For complete meeting details, please see: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/
21st annual Winter Weather Forecast Conference
What: 21st annual Winter Weather Forecast Conference
When: Saturday, October 26th 2013 @ 10 AM.
Where: Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI), main auditorium, 1945 S.E. Water Ave. in Portland.
For driving directions to OMSI click: http://tinyurl.com/6rrz8em.
Meeting and parking cost: This meeting is free and open to all ages of the general public. Free parking in all OMSI parking lots.
Overnight Accommodations: For overnight accommodations in Portland, please see: http://tinyurl.com/7boqrsf
Agenda: Meteorologists from across the Pacific Northwest will once again give their weather prognostications for the upcoming winter.
Please note — OMSI’s main auditorium will hold approximately 300 guests. Please arrive early in order to be assured a seat. Once standing room capacity has been met, the only additional viewing area will be from the hallway outside.
Who is the Oregon AMS? The Oregon chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) was founded in 1947 and is the single largest local chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in the country, with 180 members. The Oregon AMS chapter normally hosts eight monthly meetings from September to May that are free and open to all ages of the general public. The Oregon AMS welcomes the public to become chapter members for just $10 per year. The Oregon AMS chapter mission statement reads, “The purpose of this society shall be to advance professional ideals in the science of meteorology and to promote the development, exchange, and application of meteorological knowledge.” Our meetings are always found on our web site: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon 

99 Responses to Weekend Update & Winter Weather Meeting Details

  1. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    18z(I know, it’s the 18z) it does show slight retrogression beyond day 10. It delivers a chilly air mass and cold east wind will help with that too, especially for PDX metro areas. FCST HR 264-312 look particularly interesting as the flow bends around to the north-northeast. In fact, a modified arctic air mass slides into eastern Washington and Idaho. It would be even colder if the PV just north of Hudson’s Bay weren’t so far removed from the modified push. Mega strong ridge continues and retrogression is very possible.

  2. marinersfan85 says:

    Loving the forecast! I can’t imagine how upset uncle Jessy is.

  3. BoringOregon says:

    So what makes the east winds, from blowing at night!?!?

  4. Just had a slight east wind break through in BG. Temp is 66 with humidity at 37%.

    12 mph…strongest wind since the 8th…

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      I think the story today might be for those east of I-205 with breezy somewhat brisk east winds the first of this Fall season.
      TTD-DLS now at -3.7mb peaked at -4.5mb around 9 AM. Not strong winds, but definitely noticeable. Otherwise I’d rate today a 10.

  5. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    12z GFS
    *Still looking for a pattern change and there is nothing the next 10 days to indicate that. In fact, 500dm heights rise just a tad early next week with 850mb temps peaking out around 17c. Mid 70’s likely. This run shows perhaps the westerlies break through further down the road beyond day 10 way out in la-la land.

    12z EURO
    *Not much going on here. One “BC Slider” system moves down over us, but the ridge may rebuild yet again offshore behind this departing system. One thing to note is the ridge axis develops further offshore, and I see hints at maybe retrogression beyond day 10. Mere speculation….

  6. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Taking 101 back home from Frisco today. Couldn’t be better weather for it. No fog or clouds to be seen.

  7. schmit44 says:

    10/14/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:77 at Brookings Airpor( 459 ft)
    Low: 56 at BROOKINGS(79 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:29 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 12 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 44 degrees
    Lorella (61/17 ) (4160 ft )
    Beatty (59/15) (4320 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.22″ at POINT PROM II(6607ft)
    0.18″ at LITTLE BUTTE CRE(1702ft)
    0.17″ at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150ft)

  8. JJ78259 says:

    I was talking with my neighbor here San Antonio I guess in the winter of 1985 we had a huge thunder storm that mixed with a lot of cold air and dropped 16 inches of snow with thunder and ton of lightning. He said it did not last long but it piled up quickly! It can happen.

  9. paulbeugene says:

    GFS ridgy through most of the next two weeks. With tropical business going on in NW Pacific Ocean, going to be some excessive model chaos for the next week or so.
    Best chance for decent October cold weather looks to be over the Dakotas into Great Lakes.

    There are really only three forecast possibilities overall over the next week
    Nice and mild (very likely), nice and warm (likely), nice and cool (unlikely).
    the following week:
    Nice and mild (very likely), nice and cool (likely), nice and cold (unlikely).

    Decent chance for frost in lowlands at some point in next two weeks.

    Can’t ask for better leaf raking weather.

    Probably will have to wait til early November for Pacific westerlies to break through and thus at least until then for next shot at a windstorm. Just as well the with longer nights as I don’t see much point in having a windstorm in broad daylight. So much more dramatic with all the transformers a poppin’ at night. Imagine if Columbus Day storm had happened at night…would have been a frightfest.

    • Columbus day storm in Portland was pretty much at dusk/dark. I remember being at the Paramount theater watching some Disney flick. The lights kept going out and the movie had to stop. We went outside to a war zone………..lots of flashing!

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      I was 8 years old when the Columbus day storm happened. The winds really got going around 4:00 PM. That night over the sound of the roaring wind you could hear roofs ripping away, dogs howling, glass breaking, power transformers exploding, trees crashing down, garbage cans rolling down the street. It was the most frightening experience I ever went through. That is why when some blogger talks about how exciting a monster windstorm would be I think of some scared little kid cowering in the darkness and hope it doesn’t happen.

  10. pappoose in scappoose says:

    “You have been deceived all these years and didn’t know it!”

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/10/superior-mirage-watch.html

  11. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    66.8°/38.7° for my daily high/low – what a perfect sunny October day.

    With clear skies in the forecast this week, it’s a good time to observe the International Space Station (ISS). There will be an evening flyover each day this week between 7 & 8 PM, easily visible to the naked eye – no binoculars required. Here’s a link for dates & times:

    http://spaceweather.com/flybys/

  12. WEATHERDAN says:

    I have observed multiple sources indicating a trend towards colder weather with the ridge retrograding in about 10 days. Will it happen. Well once you get to the last week of October it would not be unheard of. Still it would be quite rare. We have had an arctic outbreak at least nearby by the 31st in 1971-1973, 1984, and 2003. In fact in 1935 Salem had 5 inches of snow with a high of 35 degrees on halloween day. But I think what is going to happen is that we will see highs dip to the upper 40,s or lower 50,s with lows dipping to the upper 20,s to around 30. About 5-10 degrees below normal but no arctic outbreak. Maybe up in Spokane though. Rob thank you for your analysis of the weather patterns. See you all at the weather conference on the 26th.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Yes, thanks Rob. And see u all there as well

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Oh, ya thanks no problem. Well, the 12z EURO operational last 2 frames do show the ridge retrograding offshore, so maybe. 18z GFS doesn’t keeps it ridiculously mild forever. 12z GFS was between the two solutions.

      Mat, nah, and I don’t want to get into what or why, not a good idea. ….And we move on.

      00z GFS in 4 hours
      00z EURO in 7 hours 10 minutes

    • Chris s says:

      This October is reminding me of Oct. 2003 here in Salem. I would be ok with that if we get a repeat of what happened the end of December of that year, stretching into January.😊

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Chris, or what happened with the few snowfalls and sleet events in November and December of ’03 as well. It was a great year for east winds and snow/sleet/ice events. One of them for instance I remember going to sleep after a Halloween party of that year at 60 degrees and waking up at 9am with a heavy snow rain mix and 34 degrees with strong east winds. I’d be happy with a repeat of that winter as well.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      But after the big event was over in January 9th of ’04 I do remember as well that nothing else happened again thru rest of winter cold wise.

  13. Forget the euro, gfs, cfsv2. Forget PDO, El Niño. Why? Cuz the surest indicator of a snowmaggedon winter is that king county slashed its snowplow budget for this winter (maybe thinking that Climate Change has already done away with snow for good). Time to buy a really gnarly Ford F150 Raptor with some gnarly tires

    • W7ENK says:

      Snowplow blade.

      The whole rest of my comment got nuked by WordPress login request. Forget it… 😦

    • David B. says:

      Another good one is if any of the local media runs a story implying a Big Snow for some reason can’t happen this winter (or ever again).

      I remember the Seattle Times running such a story in the fall of 1996 (the year that 2+ feet of snow fell between Christmas and New Year’s). I believe the gist of the story was that the urban heat island effect had grown to the point that such snows simply weren’t possible any more, after all it had been the late 60s since there last was 2 or more feet of snow on the ground.

    • marinersfan85 says:

      ^^^ I lived in Lynnwood at the time. I remember that snow well. I was only 11. But I had over 3 feet. In terms of snow amount, it blows 2008 out of the water. But then again, I don’t think I ever seen that much snow melt as quickly as it did. Pineapple express overrunning cold air is an amazing thing.

  14. cgavic says:

    Sunshine and 43 degs

  15. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    I guess I will mention that the 6z GFS did show something different, but after day 10. What change is that? Ridge backs offshore retrograding and a colder air mass with strong east wind. I realize this is out in la-la land, so why am I bothering with this? Well with the ridge in the position it is, it is not out of the realm of possibility to see some retrogression occur, in fact with such as strong ridge I’d say it is more likely than to see the westerlies undercut it or break through to a wetter pattern. We need to see if 12z and future runs show some kind of trend with this.

    • BoringOregon says:

      When does the 12z come out? maybe a east wind event up at the vista house with record wind up there!?!?

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      12z GFS runs roughly 8:37 AM – 9:50 AM. Extracted Data available 10:01 AM.
      12z EURO runs 11:56 AM

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Oh, nah, could be moderately strong wind, but that all depends on what the 500mb pattern does. If the ridge moves offshore it’s possible…. Too far out to do more than merely speculate.

  16. runrain says:

    Monumental amounts of rain in San Antonio, yet we’re not hearing anything from our resident San Antonio weather blog reporter. Sounds symptomatic of a true Fairweather fan – ha!

    • JJ78259 says:

      Saturday hit the pool 92 degrees at the house then a lightning show Saturday night 3 hours of it. Sunday all day rain. Hey we need the water. I have to say 75 80 degree rain is kind of nice. Still have not used a jacket yet this fall. Austin really needed it they were 30 percent down on water, they got 5 to 10 inches. I am in Memphis this week nice weather today! I really appreciate thinking about me runrain!

    • runrain says:

      Ha ha! Reminded again of the absolute paradise provided by the south Texas weather. Wish it had been better during the Alamo Bowl last year. Froze my a** off!

    • JJ78259 says:

      When we get rain down here it really helps the Edward’s Aquifer which covers 8000 square miles and feeds 13 counties in south central Texas. People down here love the rain it seems the drought is lessoning a bit this year Sunday was the longest rainy period since I moved down here. It was partly cloudy today. The trees have not changed still all green, in Milwaukie I would have been in full yard clean up mode it is nice to watch the football on the weekends again.

  17. 7th day of the month in the 30s out here in BG.

    Currently 35.6

  18. schmit44 says:

    10/13/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:72 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft)
    Low: 51 at BROOKINGS(79 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:28 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 19 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 35 degrees
    Lorella (56/21 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.23″ at Sexton Summit(3837ft)
    0.18″ at Medford, Rogue V(1329ft)

  19. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z EURO
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    Ridge somewhat flattens for about 24 hours, but not really, then some sort of very wimpy disturbance embedded within an equally weak split flow tries to approach. No sign of a pattern change. Dry and mild.

  20. W7ENK says:

    KGW eluding to an arctic outbreak by the end of this month, which is funny, because the latest 00z shows absolutely nothing of the sort!

    I hope someone gets fired, but I’m not feeling well and in a mood, so take that FWIW.

  21. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z GFS
    *Rinse. Repeat(If necessary) Models are sure doing so. Not sure if they have dandruff or what’s the case, but anyhow. Extremely dry and extremely mild for the unforeseeable future(Because I can’t see into the future) Maybe tomorrow’s models will reveal that something magical will occur on Glowing Pumpkin Day. Maybe not. It would be way out at FCST HR 360-384 anyhow and who looks at that nonsense? ME if it shows a Wind Storm, or 850mb temps -10c or colder and thickness below 530. Alrighty then.

  22. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    The models are going to be quite boring the next week at least, almost to the point of not needing to analyze them, AH, but you know I’ll be here analyzing every GFS and NAM run to death with both a microscope and a fine toothed comb. Nah… that might not be a bad idea. UNLESS? Unless Typhoon Wipha says, “Wait. What? Homie don’t play that”, and throws a major, massive, huge, significant, immense, enormous, gigantic, tremendous, Monkey(or we would have accepted Baboon or Chimpanzee) wrench in things. But really, who has ever said “That throws a big Chimpanzee Wrench in my plans!” no one, that’s who.

  23. I for one am so read for some nice crisp weather!

    Can’t wait to get out and hike, take pictures and clean up the yard!

  24. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    The weather ahead though is going to be outstanding. No one should be complaining period. It will be great. Many folks can get some late season yard work done, or get the gutters cleaned in preparation for the stormy weather ahead. Also, it’s nice to drive around without rain pelting the windshield, or wet streets as well as walking in it. There are many positive things you could take from this. Plus just seeing the sun, blue skies, and enjoying the clean, crisp Fall air. How about the trees changing color? The beautiful part of Fall unfolding. We have PLENTY of time ahead November through early February to look forward to the possibilities of wind storms or arctic air and snow chances. Relax.

  25. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    If you’re a fan of dry and very warm October weather the 18z is your best friend. I’ll just post the Extracted Data. Mid 60’s to low 70’s(or warmer) until the end of the month. WAY out in la-la land we cool off with stronger somewhat chilly east winds. Strongest ridge in October in many years.
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd

  26. W7ENK says:

    Yesterday turned out to be not so bad! A little bit of drizzle a couple times earlier in the day, but by the time my guests arrived at 3 the sun broke through, though it was still on the cool side. A roaring fire and 16 pounds of tri tips smoked over juniper for 8 hours, along side a fresh Pacific coho fillet, 4 massive butternut squash, the last of my homegrown sweet corn, smoked salmon stuffed mushrooms topped with smoked Tillamöök cheddar — all done on the grill — plus plenty of free-flowing beer and wine, no one seemed to notice or even care about the slight fall chill. Nothing a light jacket couldn’t overcome. Overall, everyone had a blast! 🙂

    Okay, so now it can start snowing. I’m ready!!

    Too bad I won’t make it to this year’s Winter Weather conference. I’ve been booked up for the last weekend in October since probably April, something I simply cannot back out of, so timing just didn’t line up this year. I hope Steve isn’t too upset I won’t be there to run the camera. 😕 There’s always next year!

  27. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    12z EURO
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    Looking for any changes here, any sign of the jet undercutting the block, flattening the ridge, retrogression, cold air, a pattern change and nope, notta. About the only interesting thing seen on this run would be the cold low diving south and retrograding slightly westward through the Canadian Prairies. You can see how the ridge begins to tilt up in the Yukon and the flow bends around by looking at the contour lines. This could send some chilly air towards eastern Washington and Idaho. Otherwise dry and mild is the theme for the Pacific Northwest.

  28. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    12z GFS
    Bone dry the entire run. Not one drop of rain. This also is the warmest run yet, very mild throughout. I personally can’t remember a model run this warm in October before. Maybe it has happened before though. Dare I say this pattern is very El Nino looking? Yeah. Please go away soon.

  29. schmit44 says:

    10/12/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:64 at Port Orford (US( 90 ft)
    Low: 50 at W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft) & WYETH(102 ft) & DUNES1(173 ft) & CW8449 Charlesto(322 ft) & John Day River B(305 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:32 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 16 at Worden (4080 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 40 degrees
    Worden (56/16 ) (4080 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.39″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    0.37″ at EW1135 Yachats1(32ft)
    0.36″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    0.35″ at CEDAR(2220ft)

  30. High Desert Mat says:

    Jesse, you gonna be at the meeting in two weeks? I’ve met you once about five years ago there but I think we should meet again. We think alike a little bit. Hope Rob and Bobby Corser and the rest of the weather blog crew show up as well. See you there as well Mr. Pierce. Mark, I think the Waddells are also coming this year. O and my brother Josh the snowman from Everett will be there too. Cant wait to put a few a faces with the blogs.

  31. ocpaul says:

    dawn photo, Sep 2012. Right place, right time and an I-Phone.

  32. Rob - southeast Portland says:

    Happy Birthday, Lurky.

  33. BoringOregon says:

    All most, all we need is a bbq lunch. For the meeting now!?!?

  34. Jesse-Stevenson says:

    Temperatures “finally” above average? You realize PDX has seen above average temperatures the last eight consecutive months, right Mark?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      What a pain…you know what I mean. We’ve had one above average day at PDX in about a month.

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      After basically torching the entire month and a half before that.

      Sorry, it’s just annoying how people whine when we get a few weeks of below average weather when positive anomalies have pretty much dominated out weather patterns for the better part of the last few decades.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

      As of the end of September this has been the warmest year since 2004 at my station, and that was with a cool wet second half of the month. Without that it might have been the warmest (so far!) in at least 13 years.

      Monthly PDX means have been above average every month this year except the “Fake Cold” January. Those are calculated on the new 30 year averages too which I suspect is much warmer than the prior.

  35. alohabb says:

    I see alot of data with Robs posts, so…. wishcasting?

    • That word is talked about like it should be banned. Might as well just put it on the banned words list the way ppl react to it negatively.

    • alohabb says:

      That post was in reply to a deleted entry.

    • Rob - southeast Portland says:

      Which posts are you referring too? I haven’t mentioned anything other than ridging. Definitely nothing one would wishcast about, if I wishcasted that is, which I don’t. I’m a bit too seasoned and knowledgeable for that anymore.

    • SnowedIn - North Plains says:

      Hey, all I EVER do is wishcast. It’s kind of fun to dream a bit and let your imagination go a little wild with the possibilities. Everybody has the tendency to let their weather wishes influence how they read the models, it’s just part of who we are. I think everybody needs to relax a bit and be a little more light hearted, the point of this is just open discussion. Is that a little too hippy of me?

    • alohabb says:

      No worries Rob, I was commenting on someone who posted a reply to your 00Z posting earlier , but that message has since been removed. Keep up the good work!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Rob, there was a violation of blog rule #3.
      Avoid taunting others.

      Mark pulled out the big guns, and cleaned up the town!

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      Ohhh, my bad sorry for the misunderstanding.

  36. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z EURO
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    In a nut shell: Dry, mild, and ridge of high pressure dominates things. A few dents in the 500mb flow are seen as energy moves down into eastern Washington/Oregon. This run does seem to offer a pattern change though. Note near the edge of the run the strong, very amplified ridge is pinched off up in Alaska/Yukon as the jet consolidates across the north Pacific. That COULD signal that an active phase is on the way for the Pacific Northwest.

    • marinersfan85 says:

      I’d rather the arctic air waited until mid November at the earliest. Anything now or in the next month is a waste of cold air. Hope to see you at the OMSI meeting!!!

    • Yes Rob the NWS was also talking about some Typhoon/tropical energy getting into the act and helping to strengthen the jet stream. Who knows just where that trough will set up just off the coast though? We are certainly in windstorm season though!

  37. Here’s a question to ponder: Have you ever seen anyone in Halloween-ish attire at the Winter Weather Conference anyone? Because it seems to often come the last weekend of October…

  38. schmit44 says:

    10/11/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:66 at AGNESS2( 247 ft) & CW5474 Grants Pa(915 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft) & MERLIN SEED ORCH(1144 ft)
    Low: 52 at JUNIPR(359 ft) & Astoria(0 ft) & CW8449 Charlesto(322 ft) & DW7303 Ashland(2257 ft) & DW6132 Portland(272 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:35 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 10 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 41 degrees
    Worden (59/18 ) (4080 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.16″ at Aurora State Air(194ft)
    0.12″ at POINT PROM II(6607ft)

  39. BoringOregon says:

    1st !!!!

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