ECMWF Weekly Maps

Long range (one month run) of the ECMWF from last night.  Very dry with an upper level ridge of some sort just to our west the next 2 weeks or so, then it shifts farther west with an upper-level trough just to our east.  Generally a cool pattern for mid-fall.  But once again, no sign of stormy and wet weather systems coming at us from the west.

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38 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps

  1. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z GFS
    A very dry run overall and equally very mild too. No signs of fun arctic air or exciting wind storms. Very mundane, yet nice temperatures. Nice Fall weather on the way….

    • marinersfan85 says:

      I’d rather the arctic air waited until late November. Hope to see you at the omsi meeting!!!

  2. JJ78259 says:

    86 degrees at the end of the local Friday night high school football game 7840 fans in attendance pretty cool!

  3. 51/41 here today. Cleared off a bit this evening so maybe upper 30s by midnight.

  4. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    I just stumbled across something I found interesting, at least noteworthy of posting here.

    The most damaging wind storm at an estimate 960mb(but not the deepest) to strike the Pacific Northwest and perhaps the entire United States was the infamous Columbus Day Storm occurring on October 12th, 1962. This isn’t old news of course, but that date October 12th might hold more significance than previously thought. Well, if anything I suppose the next bit of info is an extremely profound coincidence, but did you know the strongest storm ever recorded on Earth, Super Typhoon Tip with a world record Barometric Pressure reading of 870mb(25.69 in) and Maximum Sustained Winds of 190mph also occurred peaking on October 12th? Yep, during 1979. Two of the most prolific storms on earth occurring on the 12th.

    ….AH, but now we have 3 storms occurring on this same day, October 12th.

    Tropical Cyclone Phailin
    Cat 5
    Max Winds: 160mph
    Wind Gusts: 195mph
    Barometer: 911mb(26.90 in)

    From what I have researched this now makes it the most powerful and strongest Cyclone(in mb) ever recorded in the Northern Indian Ocean(Bay of Bengal) exceeding the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone of 912mb. It is set to strike this region of India on October 12th. *In 1883 the S.S. Duke of Yorkshire reported a pressure of 891mb(26.30 in) while sailing through the eye of a Typhoon in the Bay of Bengal. Unofficial of course.

    Satellite Imagery

    WOW. What a beast!
    http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/northern-indian/2013/Tropical-Cyclone-Phailin

    You can look at all of the storms in the history of the world and not find any correlation or connection to any other date, but now we have 3 storms. Creepy? Isn’t it…. I found a possible connection with this date tied to the Columbus Day Storm and Super Typhoon Tip, and now we can add Super Tropical Cyclone Phailin to that list. What is it with October 12th? It is STILL just a coincidence?

    More goodies….
    World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records
    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/world-and-us-lowest-barometric-pressure-records
    *Credit: Christopher C. Burt, Meteorology at the Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison.

    • BoringOregon says:

      Just watched the weather channel on it, did you see all the clouds around it !?!?

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      UPDATE: A report circulating the internet at this hour (1 a.m EDT) states “At last tally one satellite-based measure of Phailin’s strength estimated the storm’s central pressure at 910.7 millibars, with sustained winds of 175 mph.

    • Sat imagery suggests to me that phailin has peaked, with concentric eyewall surrounding the CDO. While pressure should rise and peak winds drop a bit, overall energy in the storm building as wind radius increases

    • Lurkyloo says:

      October 12 is my birthday … Now I know why I’ve been drawn to this weather site! No lie. I’m 47 tomorrow! Ewwww. Old person alert! That’s what’s with October 12th — I’m behind the curtain! :}

  5. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Down in red bluff right now, off to Chico later today then I believe Oakland tomorrow or tonight. Wall to wall sunshine already pushing 70

  6. Mike - Cooper Mtn. says:

    Hi! First time poster, several year lurker.
    I saw this posted on another forum and I thought it was a good question. What is the difference between the operational on a given model run vs. the ensembles?

  7. W7ENK says:

    I’m really looking forward to one last good shot of warm and sunny weather before it all lets go for good. Just a damm shame it doesn’t bump up by ONE day, instead leaving my Harvest Season BBQ the ONLY day showing rain on last night’s 7-Day. Figures…

  8. Jethro says:

    Love all the 70’s on the 7-day! Forget the 00z GFS delusions of arctic air… Let’s all just appreciate our own inner “warm biases” for a few more days and soak up this sunshine.

    I’m not ready to jump on the model-ride train just yet.There’s plenty of time to dream about zonal flow, wind, and 55 degree rain in November… 😉

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      YES! Next week looks awesome. I can’t wait for the low 70’s, bright skies, and light offshore wind. It doesn’t get any better. No really. Seriously.

  9. Energy from typhoon in W PAC will likely throw some monkey wrenches into the emerging pattern , so I have little confidence in the 7-10 day window. Will hold off getting excited about white pumpkins, for now. White turkey would be good enough for me.

  10. schmit44 says:

    10/10/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:70 at AGNESS2( 247 ft)
    Low: 52 at JUNIPR(359 ft) & MT. YONCALLA(1822 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:35 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft)
    Low: 18 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 37 degrees
    Agency Lake (61/24 ) (4150 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.57″ at Mount Hood Meado(5249ft)
    0.27″ at POINT PROM II(6607ft)

  11. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Wait. What?
    00z EURO
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    See anything interesting? Oh sure, we turn ridgy, REAL ridgy in fact, but watch how it retrogrades offshore after day 7 with a strong trough over western Alaska. Cut-off low near 160 W will be a key feature. If it too backed away that might be interesting. Does the trough drop south shoving the ridge further west to 150 W or so and drops the cold air down over us? or maybe pinch it off with a strong NW jet reemerging. This sure looks quite similar to last night’s 00z GFS 500mb progression days 7-10 that I do know. Hmmm.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Rob, we need scenarios like these come late fall and winter. Right now it doesn’t do much for u folks on the Westside hoping for some winter-like precip. But to have huge ridges like these showing up in eastern pacific is a good sign. Now one more month and id be getting excited. We need the air up north to get frigid over Alaska and western Canada and then have the omega block set up over 150 in the Pacific. I have a good feeling about this winter.

  12. Greg Carstens says:

    Thanks Mark

    For once all the GFS models are agreeing with the ECMWF and the analogs I have been posting on the Facebook groups,

  13. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Model riding beyond day 8-10 is like going to buy a car, walking around the show room, you really want the bright red Ferrari, but you end up out in the other lot going home with a 1972 Ford Pinto. Not what you had in mind.

    • BoringOregon says:

      put a v8 in it!

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      What color is the Pinto Rob. Red might be groovy hip and really far out. But enough of this pimply hyperbole. Well at least you didn’t wind up with a Gremlin. All kidding aside welcome back to the blog. We really missed your expertise. This looks to be a wild Winter and I look forward to your uptake on it.

  14. BoringOregon says:

    Wow, what a huge storm!!!—–http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJ74aNJLi6E

  15. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Is it just me, or does this scream possible early season blocking pattern. Hmmm. Thanks for the post…. Shift it a bit further west and it could be white pumpkins for everyone! Yes, white indeed.

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