A Wild Weather Day, But Lots of Dry Weather Coming

Today turned out a bit exciting with some hail, lightning, and more than one report of a funnel cloud.  The one that was most obvious was spotted by a member of the media,  “ruceBay ussmanSay from OINKay”  (I’ve been practicing Pig Latin) while driving down the freeway.  Don’t follow that guy while he’s filming!  But check out the shear track…a good 35mph:


which is one of the highest I’ve seen west of the Cascades.  It helps that the cell was relatively close to the radar site for a good view too.

A few lightning strikes across Clark county and eastern Multnomah/Clackamas counties led to a bunch of rumbing around this afternoon too:


What’s happening the next 7 days?  Not much.  The overall pattern the next 7-14 days appears to be one of upper-level ridging either well offshore, to our north, or some sort of blocking to our north.  Generally this is a drier than normal pattern.  When a ridge is offshore, weak systems ride over the top of it, then come down into the Pacific Northwest.  That appears to be the case Thursday and maybe Saturday.  The GFS sends a system down to our east that day, keeping us dry.   But the ECMWF has the system a bit farther to the west, giving us a rainy day.  We’ll see which one turns out correct.

The cool weather is going to continue through the weekend…and just about every day in the past 3 weeks has been below average (at least for high temps).


What a quick change from summer to fall this year eh?  With the ridging forecast by models, temperatures should rise, some, after the weekend.

Here is the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart:


and the new 00z GFS ensemble chart:


Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

27 Responses to A Wild Weather Day, But Lots of Dry Weather Coming

  1. ocpaul says:

    Side benefit to the cooler Fall temps-Great Autumn color! The maple and ash trees have been Great (and early). The last great fall color I remember was 2003. Maples had yellow into orange into red on the same tree. I got great photos that fall. On November 18 I took photos of brilliant red barberrys. On November 19, I took pictures of the same barberrys with snow on them. Snow and ice followed that year into Jan 04. Repeat? hmm

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Ya I believe we saw several rounds of snow/sleet/ice that winter. I lived right at NE 20th and Couch that year and remember several different events that produced one of those three things that weren’t forecasted. I’d wake up to go to work and a co-worker would call and say we were closed. I’d look outside and look at the east winds blowing the sleet and snow sideways with temps in the mid to upper 20’s. I believe that was the winter with several missed winter precip events by the Mets. All were in late ’03 except of course for the almost two weeks of snow and freezing rain from about the 26th of Dec. thru the first week of ’04. That was the second best event I remember besides ’08 of course. Fun times.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Then the next winter alot Mets around town would predict and miss forecasts of east wind snow because of the year before. They wanted to call it first but missed!

  2. taking off tomorrow for an impromptu week long trip to the Bay Area. Yuba City for a few days, then the bay area. Yuba looks nice (75-80) SF will probably be a lot like here.

    gonna be wierd watching the Hawks game in SF though.

  3. W7ENK says:

    Hoping to have one last outdoor gathering/BBQ this Saturday. I should have done it last Saturday, but couldn’t make it come together, too much other stuff going on. If it’s gonna rain, it ain’t gonna happen! 😦

    I guess it may have to wait until spring?

    Fingers crossed for a dry Saturday!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Don’t let a little rain stop ya, we’re unstoppable!

    • David B. says:

      Your dome must be SERIOUSLY broken, W7. It let a thunderstorm with a funnel cloud get in yesterday. Maybe that means you’ll finally get some interesting winter weather in a few months.

    • W7ENK says:

      It’s less the rain and more all the mud tracking through my tiny little house that bothers me. That, but mostly the comfort of my guests. My house is so small, and seating is so limited that it just makes more sense to keep everyone outside, but no one wants to sit around a firepit in the cold rain, no matter how amazing the food is!

      Maybe we’ll get lucky and Saturday will end up much sunnier and warmer than expected?

      I should host a BBQ in the snow this winter, celebrate The Dome’s first legit snowfall in 5 years! 😆 Yes, that means I am expecting it to snow this year…

      Speaking of which David, that was well to my South. I was home all day, no thunder, no funnels, and only 0.03″ of rain. I’ve actually had a tornado here (though the NWS said that I, my video and my several neighbors who all witnessed the funnel on the ground tearing apart trees were officially mistaken), I don’t particularly need a 5/2/2009 redux. Once was enough!

    • Never let the winter stop you from grilling! I learned that from my Dad years ago while grilling at Sun River in the winter when it was in the teens and covered in snow.

    • BoringOregon says:

      I hear ya on that one w7!!

    • JJ78259 says:

      W7ENK those were cool videos. I remember that day well my birch tree was never the same after that storm.

    • I was up in Toutle working at the school & we had two rumbles of thunder & rain half the day then beautiful sun!

  4. Paul D says:

    Below normal highs!! Woohoo!!

  5. archangelmichael2 says:

    Ehhhh that link didn’t quite work out but you have to scroll the paper to the right and use the tiny image box to help.

    The headlines will mention in big letters of wires being down all over the valley and only emergency shortwave radio working.

  6. archangelmichael2 says:

    Will our winter be like January 1937? Eugene Register Guard Feb 1 1937

    Two exciting stories talking about January being the coldest since 1913 at the time and a major snowfall of 2-3 feet in the valley cutting everybody off between Eugene and Portland due to the telegraph link being severed and no phones for over a day.

    January was cold but very dry until right at the tail end. Feb 1937 Salem airport has 10 inches of Oregon liquid sunshine.

  7. BoringOregon says:

    I got some good video of the cell going over my house video up soon!!

  8. schmit44 says:

    10/8/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:65 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft)
    Low: 53 at Brookings Airpor(459 ft)

    High:30 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 14 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 38 degrees
    Worden (56/18 ) (4080 ft )
    Beatty (55/17) (4320 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.30″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    1.24″ at Detroit Lake(1675ft)
    1.23″ at YELLOWSTONE MTN.(3080ft)
    1.12″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    1.04″ at DW4118 Sandy(1250ft)

  9. Greg Carstens says:

    If anything comes pretty much out of the north and even northwest I would not expect to see a whole lot come out of it since it is an overland trajectory which as Mark notes is usually a drier solution. If things keep coming from that direction, then I certainly agree it will be on the cool side over much of Western Washington and Oregon. This tends to be more of one more less exciting weather patterns around here. Probably good enough weather though if you need to catch up on some of those pre winterization yard projects you have been needing to catch up on it. Looks like now will be surely the time. I finally got the last 4 of my 19 trees planted up here in Southeast Tacoma the other day.

  10. Rob - Southeast Portland says:


    You did! Lol used Pig Latin on Mr. Ussmansay’s name. I do believe that MIGHT be the first instance and use of Pig Latin on the Blog. For that I congratulate you.

    When this occurred Mesoanalysis showed we had 20-25kts low level shear and 0-1/3km SRHelicity of 100-150m2/S2. Not surprising we saw this today given those parameters.

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