A Wild Weather Day, But Lots of Dry Weather Coming

October 8, 2013

Today turned out a bit exciting with some hail, lightning, and more than one report of a funnel cloud.  The one that was most obvious was spotted by a member of the media,  “ruceBay ussmanSay from OINKay”  (I’ve been practicing Pig Latin) while driving down the freeway.  Don’t follow that guy while he’s filming!  But check out the shear track…a good 35mph:

SHEAR

which is one of the highest I’ve seen west of the Cascades.  It helps that the cell was relatively close to the radar site for a good view too.

A few lightning strikes across Clark county and eastern Multnomah/Clackamas counties led to a bunch of rumbing around this afternoon too:

lightning3

What’s happening the next 7 days?  Not much.  The overall pattern the next 7-14 days appears to be one of upper-level ridging either well offshore, to our north, or some sort of blocking to our north.  Generally this is a drier than normal pattern.  When a ridge is offshore, weak systems ride over the top of it, then come down into the Pacific Northwest.  That appears to be the case Thursday and maybe Saturday.  The GFS sends a system down to our east that day, keeping us dry.   But the ECMWF has the system a bit farther to the west, giving us a rainy day.  We’ll see which one turns out correct.

The cool weather is going to continue through the weekend…and just about every day in the past 3 weeks has been below average (at least for high temps).

MarkTemp_Last12Days

What a quick change from summer to fall this year eh?  With the ridging forecast by models, temperatures should rise, some, after the weekend.

Here is the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

and the new 00z GFS ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen