ECMWF Weekly Maps

From last night’s run of the ECMWF.  4 maps, each showing one week of 500mb height anomaly.  The overriding theme seems to be ridging offshore or just to our north.  Probably drier than average and cooler than average temps.

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

84 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps

  1. cgavic says:

    Can we please stick to the weather…sunny in sandy
    The nasty verbal accosting is coming from the weather department/noaa. Blaming republicans for the shutdown. Remember, you’re the one who made the rules of please refrain from using this site for anything other than weather.

    People like me are not writing another nasty letter. It’s the media attacking. Mainstream weather volunteers. Please cease this game.

  2. JJ78259 says:

    The one bad thing coming up for most of us is the new premium for 2014 Heath care. We won’t have time to even think about the weather anymore, we will be taking on that second job to keep our family covered thanks to people we voted in to help us out!

  3. cgavic says:

    Please don’t blame the house of reps. Our leader brought this on himself.

  4. cgavic says:

    Thunderstorm sandy. Earlier a funnel cloud heads toward Estacada.
    Dorthy, we’re not in kansas anymore.

  5. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Timberline

  6. getting some blustery winds out of the north now. got a timelapse set up.

    • Wendy-Silverlake says:

      I noticed that also. The tree branches are breaking pretty good, probably because they aren’t use to this wind direction.

  7. BoringOregon says:

    Saw some nice, rotating wall clouds just moved over my house!!

  8. Hal In Aims says:

    Lightning getting closer……heavy rain and hail now……wow….lightning very close……..

  9. Hal in Aims says:

    lightning and thunder approaching……..very dark…..

  10. pappoose in scappoose says:

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    258 PM PDT TUE OCT 8 2013

    .SHORT TERM…DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SUBURBS OF PDX THIS AFTERNOON APPARENTLY WAS ENOUGH TO CAUSE A SMALL SHOWER TO BEGIN ROTATING FOR SEVERAL SCANS ON THE LOWER 2 TO 3 SLICES OF THE KRTX RADAR. LOCAL MEDIA WAS EVEN ABLE TO CAPTURE VIDEO OF THE FUNNEL CLOUD. AT THIS POINT…NO CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE WAS OBSERVED AND NO DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED. IN THE LAST THIRTY MINUTES SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH A COUPLE STORMS LIKELY PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AT THIS POINT…IT APPEARS THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE AFTER SUNSET.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
      222 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013

      10/08/2013 0215 PM

      MEDIA PERSONNEL REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR I-205 AND THE GLADSTONE EXIT.

    • David B. says:

      The southeastern suburbs of Portland? Sounds like a major Dome failure event to me!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Ya, David.
      W7! Wake up! The Dome’s breached!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      A picture of the funnel cloud along I-205 sent in by KATU viewers Susi and Amanda.

  11. jumper2306 says:

    “B. Anderson is one of the Accuweather forecasters.”

    One of the illiterate ones, methinks

  12. Wendy-Silverlake says:

    I swear I just about had a heart attack. Loudest clap of thunder I think I’ve ever heard just came out of nowhere!!!!!!!

  13. archangelmichael2 says:

    Yesterday min of 53 and a absolute high of 60 around noon dropping to 53F by the 3-4PM time frame so while the high may be 53 the absolute high was 60.

    The min of 53 is +16 from the lowest low of 37F last week thanks to constant cloud cover and onshore flow capping potential cooling. 😦

    Gotta love the moderating effects of that Pacific Ocean. Not!

  14. paulbeugene says:

    Ridge S of Anchorage equals trough here which increases arctic chances

    • archangelmichael2 says:

      Last winter that ridge got stuck over the Eastern Pacifc leading us to a constant *Dirty High*.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Thanks for the explanation guys! Let’s hope it comes to fruition.

  15. paulbeugene says:

    Looks like a VERY persistant onslot for the NW. Gonna be a heck of a winter for the PAC NW. This pertains multi varience to both threads so will post in both.

    Brett Anderson

    QUOTE

    • High Desert Mat says:

      ??

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Yea, huh???

    • paulbeugene says:

      This is comment on ECMWF seasonal forecast that was released today. General idea is that the ECMWF seasonal/long range forecast calls for ridging over G of AK/NE Pacific, with drier than normal conditions over BC and PacNW Nov/Dec. Suggests colder than normal weather over BC and PacNW for winter (my guess is first half). I do not have access to seasonal output from ECMWF, so I am left to rely on other forecasters’ interpretations.

    • paulbeugene says:

      B. Anderson is one of the Accuweather forecasters.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      So, why would that make a heck of a winter for us if it is drier than normal with ridging? Wouldn’t it be the opposite?

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Gotta get the gulf ridge to build into the Great White North and open the door for the Siberian Express!

    • David B. says:

      “So, why would that make a heck of a winter for us if it is drier than normal with ridging? Wouldn’t it be the opposite?”

      Ridging in the right place (and the described ridging sounds like it) will cause outflow conditions through the Columbia and Fraser gorges. In other words, arctic air. That’s half the ingredients of a major snowstorm. And it’s by far the half that’s harder for us to get.

      All it takes then is one stray Pacific front doing battle with the arctic air, and bam! And odds are very high there WILL be storm fronts: in the winter, “drier than normal” does not often mean “no precipitation whatsoever”. Our winters are wet, so even a drier-than-normal one allows for significant amounts of moisture.

      Overall, the most logical way a colder and drier early winter will manifest is with significant episodes of ridging, sometimes with arctic outflow conditions, displacing the normally consistent onslaught of mild, wet weather from the Pacific. And both when the arctic air arrives and when it departs there is the chance for it to do battle with an incoming Pacific front.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Great explanation David! Thank you!

    • Andrew (Near Silver Falls 1600') says:

      From what I gathered on another forum, the focus of the cold in on the EURO is December. But I’d imagine that inversions could play a role in a cooler than average January as well if that pans out. Generally a dry January will be a cool one. Last January was quite cool without much in the way of cold air to work with.

  16. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Can we pick up a Stray today? Gather up the burrito wrappers!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    853 AM PDT TUE OCT 8 2013

    DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SEATTLES CWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN RESPONSE TO LIFT BEING GENERATED AHEAD OF A VORT MAX THAT IS APPARENT IN
    WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHERN PUGET SOUND. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THIS VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
    CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT…EXPECT SHOWERS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -26C TO -28C ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS VORT MAX EXIST. THIS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL JUST GRAZE OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT…THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS RETAINED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD.

  17. gidrons says:

    The second and third weeks on the Euro charts look unusual for October. Apparently its an upper level low that slowly moves across the country? I’d think the jet would push it through faster. We’ll see if it verifies.

  18. David B. says:

    Hmmm, a cool and dry trend. Maybe I’ll see an October frost this year. Been ages since there’s been one in either SEA or PDX.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I’d really like to see frost on the pumpkin! (can throw in some other frozen moisture if ya like)

  19. schmit44 says:

    10/7/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:73 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)
    Low: 56 at MT. YONCALLA(1822 ft) & W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:37 at Rim(7050 ft)
    Low: 23 at NPOWDR (3212 ft ) & CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft ) & CHLOQN (4231 ft ) & KIRK (4519 ft ) & DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 41 degrees
    Lakeview, Lake C (66/25 ) (4734 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.11″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    1.10″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2630ft)
    0.92″ at WANDERER’S PEAK(4350ft)

  20. paulbeugene says:

    Mark:
    As part of your WSI deluxe super meteorologist model package, don’t you get to see the ECMWF seasonal forecast output that is released tomorrow? I don’t have the $ to pay off those Euro Mobsters for their output. If you do get to see please post your interpretation of it.

  21. No Snow says:

    Well, it’s time for my yearly check in. 🙂

  22. W7ENK says:

    I see the (real) trolls are running amok tonight…

    As for me: A wicked cold + 1 root canal + 3 beers + 800mg Ibuprofen + 2 Aleve + 1 Cetirizine + 1 Vicodin + a shot of whiskey = I’m trippin’ bawls and not gettng involved.

    G’night!

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      Yikes! Hope you wake up tomorrow.

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Wow! Hope you feel better, Erik … save one of those ibuprofens for the morning — I think you might need it! Root canal = sucky. Sorry!

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Or a vicodin. Mixing booze and pain drugs is dangerous. Be careful.

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Um, are you alive, I mean, awake Erik? Hope you’re feeling okay! :]

    • Sifton says:

      R.I.P……..

    • W7ENK says:

      Yup, I’m alive. Thanks! 🙂

      Knocked me cold for 13 hours straight, but my liver took it like a champ! All those years of desensitization in college really paid off, I guess. 😕

      This head cold is really kicking my butt today, but I took advantage of the day off to clean my house. I found my living room carpet! Almost forgot what color it was…

      Didn’t hear any thunder today, only 0.03″ of rain (so far).

  23. High of only 52 up here today. 0.61″ of rain.

  24. Greg Carstens says:

    Thanks for posting the maps Mark.

    I can live with week 1 forecast but the next two maps make my stomach a little uneasy I think. I always get a little uneasy feeling when I see ridges pushing out a trough or at least suggesting that might happen. Oh please let us not get into the rex block pattern with inversions and fog all day. That pattern as I mentioned in the groups is soooooooooo BORING.

    This is supposed to be the time of the year where we will BIG weather excitement. ENSO neutral can bring anything but I surely hope it does NOT bring things on the warmer and drier side in the middle of the Fall-Winter season.

  25. Let’s work on nudging that offshore ridge just a LITTLE bit closer to kick our temps up a few degrees!

    • Greg Carstens says:

      I’ll pass on that Karl. Unless your looking to get the warm weather out of the way early so it doesn’t appear later and in the middle of the Fall-Winter season.

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      I think if anything we might see the ridging back off even a little more to the west, giving us some shots of continental air.

      Nothing wrong with dry, chilly fall weather!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      PALM TREES 4EVER!

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      😀

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      Also worth noting Karl. Once we get past mid-October there can be quite a disparity between boundary layer temps and upper air temps. A ridge directly overhead does not necessarily guarantee warmth at the surface, especially if it moves in over a residual cool airmass.

      In a few weeks we will be moving into the time of year where our record high temps are produced by warm, well-mixed SW flow as opposed to strong upper level ridging. This lasts until late February/early March.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      You’re bringing me down…

    • High Desert Mat says:

      I think by Jesse being nice and not being sarcastic is killing him. Lol. I’m sure he’s biting his fists and laughing. Its like a salmon swimming towards the ocean during spawning season. I like it Jesse, keep it up. Lol

  26. Get this ridge done and over with and not in place during the middle of winter.

  27. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    And absolutely UGLY 500mb pattern on the EURO. Both last night’s 00z and today’s 12z doesn’t get much more boring than that.

  28. W7ENK says:

    Thanks, Mark!

    • Lurkyloo says:

      You were not let in, Erik. Therefore, your comment does not exist. However, you do not care right now because you’re zoned to the hilt on root canal meds. So nevermind anyway! ;}

      Poose, where you at? Poor Erik and his teeth don’t get the love? Wowwww.

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