Final September Rain Numbers

What a September!  Despite the government shutdown, which forced me to go search for the downtown rainfall record (Waaaah!) on my own, I’ve compiled the final rainfall numbers for our area.  All these locations had their wettest September on record:

MarkRain_RecordsWestOregon

That’s wet.  Can hardly believe the 3 day totals up around Mt. St. Helens…some spots saw over 15″ on the southwest flank of the mountain:

MarkRain_3DaysHeavyMtns

Where do we go from here?  Much drier, after tomorrow.  A weak and chilly system drops in over us Wednesday, then it’s on to dry weather for Thursday through Saturday.  Yesterday and this morning the GFS/ECMWF were at odds with each other for the weekend.  ECMWF crashing a wet system through here Sunday and the GFS weakening it severely.  I almost always go with the ECMWF…smart move this time around since now the 18z GFS is bringing the system through finally.  If so, we do get 3 whole dry days, a wet day, then back to drier weather next week again.

The overall message is that we’re back to normal now; some rain, some sun, some fog, and some dry weather for the first week or so of October.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

35 Responses to Final September Rain Numbers

  1. Steve from Beavercreek 1000 says:

    I ended up with 9.27″
    up here in Beavercreek.

  2. WEATHERDAN says:

    Here are some monthly highlights from Salem so far this year.

    January: 14 consecutive days of 39 or less. 6 days with sub 32 degrees highs., Lowest maximum was 28 degrees. Less than 1.5 inches precipitation. No snow.

    February: Another very dry month. Less than 2.0 inches precipitation. No snow.

    March: Another very dry month. Maximum of 72.

    April: Very dry for April. Last 5 days of month all over 70. Monthly maximum 81 degrees.

    May: First 14 days all 70+. 2nd half somewhat below avg temps, above avg precip. Over 3 inches of precip. May maximum 87 degrees.

    June: Warmest and driest June since 2009. Maximum June temp 96 degrees.

    July: 2 minor convective events. 29 days in month over 80 degrees, a record. Only one night with minimum less than 50 degrees. Monthly maximum 95 degrees. Monthly minimum 48 degrees. No precipitation.

    August: Very warm at night. Many nights remained above 60 degrees. All above 50 degrees. Maximum for August 95 degrees. One major convective event middle of August with over 200 lightning strikes. .02 inches of precip at airport recording station. Most of city got over 1 inch of rain during thunderstorm.

    September: Several records set. Minimum for month was 55.4 degrees. A new record. Monthly rainfall was a new record. Severe thunderstorm on 4th with hundreds of lightning strikes and very heavy rains which caused flooding. Early fall system had record rains at the end of the month.Maximum for September 96 degrees. 18 days over 90 for season. Normal is 16.

    October-December: This is not based on science, just a gut feeling. But I think October will be cooler and wetter than normal with an early frost. Perhaps by next week. Some storms late in month may mean an October opening for ski areas by Halloween. November will be avg temps and very wet with perhaps a minor flood event in the central and southern valley. December I feel will be average for precipitation but somewhat cooler than normal with at least one low level cold spell. This is all based on how our year has gone so far which is very active. Also the similarity to 1958, 1967, and 1978. Like I said I have no science to back up anything for the next three months so nothing from the trolls please.Peace

    • Wastingyou'rehardearnedtaxdollars says:

      I agree. This has been a very dry year yet there hasn’t been any super ridges to make it happen. The overall trend was mostly flat this summer.

      I am bummed PDX couldn’t go for 109F like it came real close to doing and the heatwave just wouldn’t budge north.

      If it’s going to be humid or hot then why not pull out the stops?

    • Wastingyou'rehardearnedtaxdollars says:

      Oops. That’s me Kyle. I was using this name on a small blog and forgot I used it as it’s been a long time.

      Oops. *puts hand over mouth*

  3. W7ENK says:

    So, it was mentioned yesterday that the latest CFSv2 forecast for Niño3.4 SST anomalies shows almost unanimously a trend into El Niño territory by the end of next month. Going out on a limb here, but I think that’s going to bust, and here’s why:

    There’s a fairly consistent trend toward a prolonged cool phase, with a short cycle anomaly recurring every 5 months. Sharp uptick, followed by a gradual decline, but the overall trend has been down. The peaks of the warming have been cooler each time.

    Attached is the latest CFSv2 graph with my own forecast (in green) drawn in to show a continuation of the short cycle I’m seeing.

    I’m going to tag this in my calendar and compare next April. There’s a very high probability that I’m wrong, but it would still be fun to look back and see how I did. 😀

    • gidrons says:

      I predict la nada but we’ll see. The last three NW winters haven’t matched the stereotype ENSO conditions anyway. I still remember all the hype for the second year nina. I predict this is the fourth winter that doesn’t correlate to ENSO conditions.

    • W7ENK says:

      That’s kind of my thinking, too. If I’m not mistaken, the ENSO has to maintain at least +/- 0.5C for a minimum of 5 consecutive months for it to be called an official El Niño/La Niña. If you look at this graph, that hasn’t been the case for a while now, and my completely made-up-based-on-nothing-scientific-just-a-hunch-and-a-wish-and-a-prayer forecast shows this “La Nono” continuing, albeit on the negative side.

      I have other thoughts along those lines, but that’s a much more in depth discussion than I care to go into right now.

  4. 8.11″ for September for my station in Battle Ground with 55.33″ for the water year.

  5. W7ENK says:

    Spectacular sunrise from Downtown Portland this morning!

    • JJ78259 says:

      Still summer down here back to 93 94 rest of the week maybe rain Saturday. When I go outside of my house or office my body clock thinks its supposed to be cold but then warm air hits me it is very weird.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Still summer in my house over here in Redmond. 72 year round and the winters are remarkably mild. No rain, no snow, no wind. Seahawks on the tube every Sunday, cant beat it. Lol

    • runrain says:

      Yeah, but you don’t have U Texas – San Antonio games to go to in Seattle 🙂

    • JJ78259 says:

      We have become Johnny Football fans, I am at a Texas A&M sponsored trade show today in Houston lots of t storms. I told my wife it was 50 degrees in Portland today she said that’s almost walk in beer cooler weather down here.

  6. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Another chance for Strays!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    256 AM PDT WED OCT 2 2013

    ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT COOL SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO PUSH ONSHORE ONTO THE
    SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COASTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE AND ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF
    OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL…WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE
    TOO. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET…NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE ELEVATIONS OF THE PASSES IN THE CASCADES. LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS
    MODEST WITH THIS SYSTEM…SO QPF WILL BE MODEST…WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE COAST RANGE…EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
    STRONGER SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT FULLY MOVE THROUGH AND EAST OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT…SO LOOK FOR DECENT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
    WELL INTO THE EVENING.

    Let’s watch for em.

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_west_full+6

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      855 AM PDT WED OCT 2 2013

      RAIN IS ALREADY SPREADING ONSHORE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE COAST…AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SPILL OVER THE COAST RANGE INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO – BY 10-11 AM. THERE IS
      SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS…A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRED NEAR ASTORIA EARLIER THIS MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUNBREAKS…WHICH SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDER.
      SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES…BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE MAJOR ROADWAYS…JUST A COUPLE SLUSHY INCHES AT MOST. THE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LIKE TIMBERLINE…PERHAPS 3-5 INCHES UP THERE.

  7. schmit44 says:

    10/1/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:65 at NELSON(2567 ft) & Weatherby Rest A(2390 ft) & Port Orford (US(90 ft) & ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & Ontario Municipa(2188 ft) & Butler Grade(1789 ft)
    Low: 52 at W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89 ft) & Port Orford(0 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:28 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 20 at KIRK (4519 ft ) & ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 32 degrees
    EW2055 Prairie C (59/27 ) (3547 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.13″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    1.05″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    0.95″ at CW6318 Welches(1283ft)
    0.94″ at DW9126 Brightwoo(1336ft)
    0.91″ at Detroit Lake(1675ft)

  8. They are visible from Battle Ground as well. There is mostly a glow right now, but there were curtains earlier.

  9. kdi says:

    The northern lights are on tonight. Havent seen them in a while.

  10. Leaserton says:

    I saw a huge flash in the northern sky about 9:30 pm. I have clear cold skies in Beaverton. It’s hard to tell if there are clouds out that way. Was it lightening?

    • Most likely a meteor, or power transformer or something.

    • Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL in Hillsboro says:

      Closest showers of any significance are around Astoria and north into sw Washington. Seems a long ways away to see lightning flashes. They do seem decently strong though.

      I think Tyler’s got it right.

    • Leaserton says:

      My husband came home and was surprised we had power. The neighborhood just north of us and out to Denney Blvd. is completely black. It was a transformer!

  11. MasterNate says:

    Rob posted latest info on Artic sea ice in the last thread. Here is latest from the south pole region. Record ice coverage going back 35 yrs.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/09/23/antarctic-sea-ice-hit-35-year-record-high-saturday/

  12. Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL in Hillsboro says:

    Well October starts off where September left off here. Mostly anyway. .44″ today.

    7.27″ in September here which changes what would have been an unremarkable water year into one of my wettest ones with 44.73″ total.

  13. BoringOregon says:

    Could you imagine if that was a winter forecast, and how much snow that would had been!!??!

  14. W7ENK says:

    50.05″ under the center of The Dome.

  15. BoringOregon says:

    1st !!!

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