Storm #2 Update: Stronger Than #1!

Sunday, 9am…

Get ready for a 2nd round of wind this afternoon; it looks stronger than what we just went through yesterday.

Highlights:

  • Strong wind develops by 4pm at the Coastline and arrives between 4-6pm here in the western valleys.
  • Peak gusts 70-80 mph on the coast
  • Peak gusts 45-55 mph here in the valleys, PDX gusted to 43 yesterday.
  • Wind will gradually die down after 8pm.
  • More rain, but no more than 1.25″ here in the metro area

A nice break the last 12 hours since we are inbetween weather systems.  Now the remnants of Typhoon Pabuk have made it all the way across the Pacific and what’s left will spin up into a powerful low pressure center the next 12 hours.  Morning models are coming out and showing the low “bombing” down to around 970 millibars and landing somewhere between central Vancouver Island and the NW tip of Washington.  Truly historic for September 29th!  Here’s the 12z NAM-MM5 model:

nam

and our 12z RPM:

RPM_12KM_Wind_NWOR_Strong

And the 12z WRF-GFS for 7pm today:

wrf_12z_7pm

compare that with the 00z WRF-GFS for the same time…almost the same.

wrf_00z_7pm

All 3 show a setup for slightly stronger wind than yesterday, assuming they have the strength and position of the developing low correct.  Our RPM even has the center of the low down around 965mb with an extremely tight pressure gradient in the 100 miles around the low;  980 millibars just 50 miles out.  It’s going to be a historic storm up around where it makes landfall.  Lucky for us, the low is far enough away that it’s not in the “big windstorm” position.  That said, once again with leaves on the trees and good mixing due to the warm temps, it shouldn’t be tough to get more damage than yesterday.

I see there are still 10,000 customers out of power in PGE’s territory, there will be more this evening!  Ladies and Gentlemen, get your generators ready…

Nothing of interest going on weatherwise after tonight, just cool showers.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

154 Responses to Storm #2 Update: Stronger Than #1!

  1. vernonia1 says:

    pressure rising @ Astoria

  2. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Next post

  3. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Whoa, windspeeds in the Straits of Juan De Fuca have gone volatile in the last couple hours. CLM dead calm at 5 pm, E 8 at 6pm, SE 21 at 7pm. Race Rocks SE 15 until about 6, now S 30.

  4. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    FINALLY I hear howling in my windows.

    I’m happy now.

  5. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Very interesting developments on radar. The steady green blob over N Willamette valley has developed a straight boundary from Florence to Mt Hood with steady rain below and scattered above. And there’s a very fine, sharp squall line that’s hit the WA coastline almost all at once. It just passed HQM and AST, which both got spanked with 50+ gusts!

  6. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    Now THIS is impressive and historic by September standards!
    Buoy 46132 – South Brooks (Off Central Vancouver Island)

    Conditions at 46132 as of
    (6:00 pm PDT on 09/29/2013)
    Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.72 in ( 973mb )
    Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.35 in ( Falling Rapidly )

    One can easily assume the low is nearing 970mb now.

  7. alohabb says:

    Aloha getting POUNDED with rain and 40+ gusts.

  8. Brad says:

    KAST just had a gust of 59. So maybe their is still life in this baby.

    • Brad says:

      Jumped from gusts in the low 40s to 59 in the last hour.

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      It’s a few hours later than forecast… But that’s awesome. I’m definitely attempting to call this a bust.

      …Or, perhaps, the weather heard what I said and is trying to prove that it’s not a bust, but that I am the bust.

      Apparently “bust” is the same to a storm as “punk” is to people.

    • Brad says:

      Let’s not get crazy yet. It still has that busty feel to it.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      You have predicted a bust, EY. Do we need winds of 60+ to get out of the bust category?

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      “I’m definitely attempting to call this a bust.” should be “I definitely regret calling this a bust.”

      No, we don’t need a 60mph in the valley for this to get out of the bust category… It’s already doing that. Especially with a power flicker that just happened here.

  9. kevin says:

    7PM in Oregon City. Calm, no winds to speak of. Last night no power for 3 hours and a mess to clean up. Nothing at all today but a little breeze.

%d bloggers like this: