Storm #1’s Wind Is Done, Rain Continues…

7pm Saturday…

Just a quick note to let you know we’re done with the strong wind until at least early Sunday afternoon.  You can just barely see the cold front on the radar way out on the far eastside of the metro area:

RTX.N0Q.20130929.0154

That was the line that briefly gave all of us a tremendous downpour between 5-7pm.

As the cold front passed, winds turned much lighter and switched direction a bit more to the southwest than south.  The peak windspeeds turned out almost exactly as expected, with 60-70 mph gusts (even a few higher) at the Coast and 35-45 mph gusts here in the metro area.  PDX  officially ended up with a 43 mph gust around 2:15pm and again with the cold front passage during the 6 O’Clock hour.

Still plenty of rain to go this evening and that’ll give us some localized flooding the next few hours!  But that will taper off after 10pm as well.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

88 Responses to Storm #1’s Wind Is Done, Rain Continues…

  1. paulbeugene says:

    12Z GFS and 12, 13Z HRRR 3km model both have low to mid Vancouver Island. No need for HWW in Seattle and points south.
    Doubt Willamette Valley tops 50mph.

    The legacy of this storm will be monthly September rainfall records being broken for many stations in OR, WA.

    • Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL in Hillsboro says:

      Hillsboro at 4.71″ as of midnight last night. Over an inch above the old record.

  2. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    WOW. Did I really just wake up to see the 12z MM5-NAM bring a 967mb low into Forks/Tatoosh Island? I know I didn’t get that much sleep and maybe I could very well be typing in my sleep, or eyes not adjusting properly…. but….. Nope 966mb* I was way off.
    Oh my ….. looked at WV/IR and seeing placement and movement… and… ooo…. trajectory. IR/WV looks concerning and I feel we can legitimately say this.

  3. paulbeugene says:

    EUG airport Sep record currently is 4.65 inches (5.21 if you include old station in town dating back 40 years further).

    They had 4.26 inches as of end of 9/28, currently at 4.42 inches…should easily break the modern Sep record and have a shot at breaking even the old record as well.

  4. David B. says:

    And the old daily rainfall record falls!

    .CLIMATE…SATURDAY WAS THE WETTEST SEPTEMBER DAY ON RECORD IN
    BOTH SEATTLE AND OLYMPIA.

    IN SEATTLE THE FINAL RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE DAY WAS 1.71 INCHES.
    THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD WHICH WAS 1.65 INCHES SET ON SEPT 30 1953
    AND TIED ON SEPT 22 1978. THIS INCLUDES THE FEDERAL BUILDING RECORDS
    WHICH GO BACK TO 1891. THE MONTHLY NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SEATTLE FOR
    SEPTEMBER IS 1.50 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH THROUGH THE
    28TH IS 4.78 INCHES. THIS IS ALREADY THE FOURTH WETTEST SEPTEMBER ON
    RECORD AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT. THE RECORD FOR THE WETTEST MONTH
    OF SEPTEMBER IS 5.95 INCHES SET IN 1978.

    IN OLYMPIA THE FINAL TOTAL FOR SATURDAY WAS 2.93 INCHES. THIS
    SHATTERED THE OLD RECORD OF 1.67 INCHES SET ON SEPT 17 2010. THE
    NORMAL MONTHLY RAINFALL AT OLYMPIA FOR SEPTEMBER IS 1.71 INCHES SO
    THE RAIN ON SATURDAY WAS ABOUT 170 PERCENT OF THE MONTHLY NORMAL.
    THIS IS ALREADY THE SECOND WETTEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD AT OLYMPIA
    SURPASSED ONLY BY THE RECORD OF 7.59 INCHES IN 1978. FELTON

    Next up: the monthly record. Seattle gets 1.25 inches today, it’s history. And by how hard it’s pouring right now, with the rain only forecast to intensify as the day wears on, that’s a distinct possibility.

  5. PhilinForestGrove says:

    Wind gust 60 mph at Yaquina Bridge at 8:09am. Anyone know when we might see damaging winds in the PDX area today? Or is it still too early to tell?

  6. paulbeugene says:

    I am a big fan of the HRRR 3km model. It shows storm headed to mid Vancouver Is as 960s mb low…much less impact on Puget Sound area but still a good blow for points north of Everett. (this is on the 12z run). HRRR track saves 100s of millions of dollars in the damage department.

  7. paulbeugene says:

    This could be a half billion dollar storm for W Washington..if NAM verifies.
    NAM shows storm stronger than Dec 2006…even the Willamette valley had gusts in the 50-55mph range with that.

    • paulbeugene says:

      PDX BLI gradient of at least 24 mb exceeds 22mb benchmark of 2006 storm (looked at Wolf Read website). PDX-EUG gradient probably less though…so I am not all that excited for Oregon winds yet.

  8. Marcustheweathernut says:

    Already starting to get breezy @ my place 🙂

  9. paulbeugene says:

    NAM mm5 shows what appears to be a major windstorm for Washington coast…with 75 knot plus gusts impacting the coastline, track good for gusts to 65mph TCM-BLI…perhaps even through the Chehalis Gap into Olympia. I think PDX to 55mph good. I think I can leave my chain saw put away in Eugene though…45mph tops.

    • Alohabb says:

      Maxed out at only 37 in Hillsboro. 50+ could cause big issues with so much rain that has fallen. Flashlights,candles and beer ready.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Make sure the chain saw is operational. 45mph caused some problems around here yesterday.

    • Looking good for that watch to be upgraded soon to a high wind warning soon for seattle metro. Guess tonight not the best for a late night fishing trip. ha Going to get some gas for the Generator this am.

  10. Alohabb says:

    Stronger winds today???

  11. The 12z WRF now shows a 970 low, mid Vancouver Island.

    The isobars are the best line up again though.

    PS: Just hit 7″ for the month

  12. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Mark! Beware the poisonous tail!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
    504 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

    LOOK FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME STEADY AND LOCALLY HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STRONG PACIFIC STORM HEADS TOWARD THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BE WINDIER THAN THE LAST ONE…
    WITH STRONG OR HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGER PART OF THE CWA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING OR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT. THERE MIGHT BE
    ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IF THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME OF THE MODELS WERE HINTING.

  13. pappoose in scappoose says:

    LOOK!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
      0728 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013

      …PACIFIC NW COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT…

      COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
      INSTABILITY /SEE THE 12Z UIL SOUNDING/ FOR WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED STORMS TODAY. AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE –AND PERHAPS INTENSITY– IS LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY THE NEXT STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING THE COAST. GIVEN THE STRONG…AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND RESULTING VERTICAL SHEAR…LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

    • ocpaul says:

      On first reading, I thought this read, “Cold Medieval Temperatures”. Holy heck, another little ice age!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      My eyes are playing tricks on me as well. Like posting the old AFD yesterday. Just having too much fun!

  14. High wind warning now coast of W.a including north sound. Seattle metro still under high wind watch But most likely will be upgraded to a high wind warning later today. Amazing stuff for only being Sept. Time to get the Generators ready just in case.

  15. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Special today only! Two for one sale! Hahaah!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    310 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

    .SHORT TERM…THROUGH TUESDAY…THIS IS A TWO IN ONE WEEKEND…TWO VERY SIMILAR STORMS IN ONE WEEKEND. TODAY ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY
    WINDY CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS. SATELLITE SHOWING BAROCLINIC LEAF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR 46N BETWEEN 140W AND 150W. THIS FEATURE
    WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY AND APPROACH THE NORTH WA COAST AS LOW PRES CENTER AROUND 975MB. ONE FEATURE OF THIS STORM WILL BE WIND…STRONG WIND ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. PRES GRADIENT AND LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELD SUPPORT GUST 70 TO 80 MPH ALONG THE BEACHES AND 50 TO 60 MPH FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE WINDS SHOULD SPILL INTO THE INTERIOR SO A WIND ADVISORY IS OUT FOR WIND GUSTS 40 TO 55 MPH. SINCE MOST TREES STILL HAVE THEIR FULL SUMMER FOLIAGE…THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF
    DOWNED BRANCHES…SNAPPED TREES…RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE DISTRICT. THE STRONGEST WINDS INLAND ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY
    EVENING.

  16. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    3:15 AM IR Loop shows the wave developing nicely now, you can really see things now. It is near 45 N, 143 W, moving southeast.
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12
    Important to see how far east it gets past 140 W before it levels off and heads more eastward, then east-northeast near 130 W later today.

    Compare this to last night’s 00z WRF initialization and you see this is ever so slightly south of model forecast.

    Models do have a very good handle on this, but we watch today to see if there are any subtle changes or differences with the track and trajectory as they can have a sizable impact, and as well see just how deep this sucker gets.

    My forecast 970-973mb central Vancouver Island. It’s somewhat possible landfall is as far south of Forks/Tatoosh Island. Wouldn’t that be something though if the Canadian ends up being right at 962mb into southern Vancouver Island! 😀

  17. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    09/28/2013 Storm

    Oregon took the brunt of it again with some good numbers at the stations all over the state. I have a feeling Washington’s gonna make up the difference in a big way tomorrow.

    Oregon: Peak Wind Gust – Direction
    Newport – 40 G58 @ 4:35pm – SSW 202.5
    Astoria – 35 G51 @ 2:32pm – SSW 202.5
    North Bend – 31 G45 @ 5:55pm – SSW 202.5
    Portland – 29 G43 @ 6:11pm – SSW 202.5
    Salem – 23 G39 @ 11:56am – S 180
    Eugene – 29 G36 @ 12:54pm – S 180
    McMinnville – 23 G36 @ 2:53pm – S 180
    Hillsboro – 21 G35 @ 4:36pm – S 180
    Corvallis – 21 G32 @ 3:35pm – S 180
    Scappoose – 14 G30 @ 5:14pm – S 180

    Average: 26.6 G40.5 – SbW 189

    Washington:
    Hoquiam – 38 G49 @ 2:34pm – SSW 202.5
    Quilliyute – 17 G44 @ 12:02pm – SSW 202.5
    Olympia – 24 G38 @ 3:54pm – S 180
    Shelton – 24 G37 @ 3:31pm- S 180
    Everett* – 18 G37 @ 2:13pm – SSE 157.5
    Vancouver – 13 G33 @ 2:36pm – S 180
    Seattle – 24 G31 @ 4:53pm – WSW 247.5
    Bellingham – 21 G31 @ 3:27pm – SSE 157.5
    Kelso/Longview** -22 G30 @ 1:35pm – SSE 157.5
    Friday Harbor -16 G28 @ 7:23am – SE 135

    Average: 21.7 G35.8 – S 180

    -* Everett clocked winds at 29 G36 at 7:53pm
    -** Kelso/Longview’s anemometer went offline temporarily during height of storm. Listing is based off of highest gust before/after that had happened.

  18. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    I just checked the latest
    North Pacific 24 Hour 500 MB Forecast

    You might want to see where the 500mb trough axis position is. Right along 130 W. This could turn out to be an important development.

    Here is the Surface Forecast
    Estimated 972mb into southern Vancouver Island

    This is the deepest run yet from the NWS/NCEP. This follows a trend from last night’s 00z runs of even deeper lows. WRF 968mb, MM5-NAM 974mb, GEM 962mb. Now we just sit and watch, wait and see as they say.

  19. schmit44 says:

    9/28/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:77 at BLALOK( 277 ft) & HEPP(311 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)
    Low: 57 at JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:40 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 29 at Timberline Lodge (7001 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 28 degrees
    Beatty (63/35 ) (4320 ft )
    Lorella (65/37) (4160 ft)
    Worden (63/35) (4080 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    4.94″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    4.60″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    4.53″ at DW0237 Lees Camp(699ft)
    4.48″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    4.40″ at SADDLE MOUNTAIN(3250ft)
    3.99″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    3.98″ at SOUTH FORK(2257ft)

  20. BoringOregon says:

    Wow that was the best rain in wind show I have ever saw before. At first I though the rain bans where, tsunami waves crazy !!

  21. David B. says:

    Daily rainfall record for September at Sea-Tac is 1.65 inches. So far 1.63 has fallen today, and it’s still raining…

  22. andre says:

    The 00z GEM is great for a severe windstorm. Watch as at hr18 a 984mb L forms in that great wind zone parallel to us and then watch as it intensifies to a 962mb L as it hits Washington! The hooking pattern will generate destructive S winds up the Valley into the storm! There needs to be a major alert to the public of gust of 70 to 75 mph for Sunday late afternoon and into the evening hours now!

    • andre says:

      Also notice the monster squall line that forms as the front moves through the area Washington down into Oregon. This front is bombing as it approaches inland.

    • JJ78259 says:

      Trees coming down in a big way if that happens, dust off the chain saws

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      I just saw the 00z GEM and about fell out of my chair!
      OH wow this would be a major game changer. I guess it shows the potential may be there for a true beast sub 970mb or deeper low.

    • Marcustheweathernut says:

      Yes…….. But it’s the GEM lol oh man I hope it pans out!!!

    • Taylor says:

      Really don’t want that happening. 50 mph wind gusts I’m okay with, but anything above that I get concerned and worried. Especially since I have loved ones near Astoria right now where it’s already going to be really bad. Hoping things don’t pan out this way.

    • Marcustheweathernut says:

      Yes u have a point Taylor….. I guess 50 would be ok:) hope your family is safe thru this storm.:)

    • matthew says:

      Would this mean 100 mph for Newport?

    • andre says:

      Not quite 100mph for Newport, I see more like up to 80 to 85 mph, maybe 90mph at worst. And it should hit Newport in the late afternoon.

    • Marcustheweathernut says:

      Possible but more like 80-85

    • marinersfan85 says:

      It’s the GEM and the only model showing this. 50 tops for PDX tomorrow. Don’t get your hopes up to high.

  23. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z WRF takes a very impressive, bombing low roughly 970mb(roughly) into central Vancouver Island. Gradient couplet looks probably the best yet of any run and isobars aligns quite favorable E-W over the Willamette Valley. In some aspects this looks like December 14, 2006 v2.0

  24. Alohabb says:

    Not looking for more than what we had today. Looks like Seattle gets the brunt of this

    • David B. says:

      We got thoroughly drenched today up here in Puget Sound country, most stations have reported 1 to 2 inches so far today. I see one flood watch has already been bumped up to a warning.

  25. mIKE iN tIGARD says:

    ROB, WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS FOR AROUND HERE?

  26. runrain says:

    Wind advisory just issued.

  27. Lurkyloo says:

    Still dumping.

  28. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    00z GFS(NCEP)
    My concern of the wave developing too soon may be realized on this run. Low intensifies sooner turning north earlier with 974mb(roughly) landfall central Vancouver Island.



    We’ll see what the WRF shows….

  29. 00z NAM brings low over tatoosh, low still deepening down to 973mb over strait of Georgia. Looks like HWW for puget sound I would think…

  30. longbeachrob says:

    Had a 40 mph gust around 1 PM today. 2.27″ of rain today. I was out hunting in it too. Wow. Hard to believe it is still September. I hope this isn’t a sign of the winter we are going to get; I’ll have to take a scuba refresher course… Ha!

  31. matt says:

    So, this rain is over by 10? Until tomorrow?

  32. JJ78259 says:

    We have had well over 50 to 70 flashes of lightning tonight in San Antonio some nice showers but dry right now. Rolling thunder all around, boy that lighting lights up everything down here! Very cool!

  33. Annoyed says:

    So what’s the latest on tomorrow’s storm? Still gonna pack a bigger punch than today’s?

  34. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Speaking of rain.

    Statement as of 4:21 PM PDT on September 28, 2013

    … Record daily maximum rainfall set at Astoria or…

    a preliminary record rainfall of 3.16 inches was set at Astoria or
    today. This breaks the old record of 1.15 set in 1893. This record
    will be finalized after midnight.

  35. Tim says:

    Gusting to 40 mph currently in Trout Lake, WA. Front is just about to pass over…

  36. Kevin says:

    It’s been quite a storm! Usually doesn’t happen here till Nov/Dec/Jan.

  37. I haven’t seen any gravatars for a couple days. Did I do something to my silly computer? 🙂

  38. schmit44 says:

    My new wind sock gravatar.

  39. Whew…that was a fun one! Now onto the next!

    Then I’d like to order up some sunny, cool and crisp weather!

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