Dialing Back The Weather Hype A Bit

5pm Friday…

I think the hype and media coverage of our unusually early fall wind/rain storms this weekend is a bit out of control, not here at FOX12, but elsewhere.  Folks it’s getting weird out there in media land!  That’s because I’m hearing of some event cancellations this afternoon.  I’ve heard it includes Sunday Parkways, the Oregon Beach Cleanup, and even a Sunday farmer’s market!  So much for unstoppable…

Here’s the latest on the stormy weather, maybe it’s best to tell you  this first…

WHAT WE DO NOT EXPECT THIS WEEKEND

  • Flooding rivers
  • A “big windstorm”, and probably just barely a “windstorm”  in the western valleys, including Portland
  • Peak wind gusts over 50 mph in the valleys
  • Widespread power outages
  • Widespread wind damage at the coast

WHAT I DO EXPECT THIS WEEKEND

  • Lots of rain!  2-3″ here in the valleys, 6-10″ in the wettest mountain locations
  • Spotty local flooding (small creeks or streets/low spots), most likely just late Saturday afternoon or evening with the heaviest rain at that time
  • Strong wind at two different times…Saturday afternoon/evening and again Sunday afternoon/evening.
  • Peak gusts at either time 55-70 mph at the Coast and 40-45 mph here in the valleys.
  • A few trees/limbs down here and there, along with scattered power outages in the metro area, a bit more of both compared to last weekend

The reason this is all such a big deal, and worthy of extra news coverage, is that it’s quite “out of season”.  Typically we would see a few storms like this starting in November, but I’ve never see this action at the end of September.  Very strange and worthy of a little news/weather hype?  Yes.  But not worthy of you getting worked up about Stormaggedon ’13.

Otherwise enjoy the rain and wind from inside the next couple of days…time to catch up on reading and Netflix!

Here is the rainfall forecast for the next 3 days…

RPM_12KM_Precip_NWOR

And the wind forecast from our RPM model, showing a surface area of low pressure making landfall on Vancouver Island Sunday afternoon…it appears wind here and at the Coast will be stronger with this 2nd system.  Over the past 18 hours models have been sending the low a bit farther north and deepening it a bit more.  This will probably keep us from getting a “big windstorm” here in the valleys.  Still, so impressive for late September!

RPM_12KM_Wind_NWOR_Strong_5pSat

RPM_12KM_Wind_NWOR_Strong_6pSun

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

230 Responses to Dialing Back The Weather Hype A Bit

  1. Hal in Aims says:

    power out again…now on gen. back up……front just now arriving…..debris hitting the house ….deluge……holy (&^$#$^()!!!

    • nathan says:

      what area are you from sounds exciting hope its coming to the vancouver

    • Rob - Southeast Portland says:

      This was one most impressive squalls I’ve seen with a cold front in a long time. Several segments along the line and at the apex of them there have been several spots of rotation, albeit weak, but very evident on velocities.

    • nathan says:

      rob do you still think 2morrow will be windy?

  2. JJ78259 says:

    Great reporting all, just like being there!

  3. paulbeugene says:

    I suspect there is a wave forming along the frontal boundary offshore, which may be affecting pressure rise/fall ahead of it over NW Oregon

  4. MasterNate says:

    Now this is an impressive rain band coming in.
    http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/Molalla+OR+97038:4:US

  5. MasterNate says:

    Front now entering Molalla. very, very windy and wet. Not bad for September and fun to watch.

  6. Lurkyloo says:

    Whew! Gullywasher!

  7. Remember…..it’s not even October yet!

  8. 1.28″ now, rainfall rate of 2.57″ and hour. 1.29″. 1.30″…seriously as I’m typing this.

    And now 1.31″

  9. 1.22″ here, and now the wind is NW @ 10. Over 2″ for the last 2 days.

  10. Alohabb says:

    Gust only reached 37. Is wind gonna be stronger tomorrow?

  11. Lurkyloo says:

    Dumping here in NE. Seemed a bit warm for a fire but I built one anyway just in case the power goes out. I don’t have a wind or rain gauge but lots of debris from the pine trees flying around. Most of the leaves on the other trees seem to be holding on for dear life. Would NOT want to be tailgating at Autzen right now … although I figure by this time those folks might not even give hoot … or a quack. 🙂

  12. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Looks like an intense squall line is about to move through the metro area, per KRTX radar:

    http://tinyurl.com/kkwk9ns

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      Picked up .35″ in 15 minutes with that squall line; had a max rain rate of 3.69″/hr at 6:12PM. Now up to 1.29″ for the day and still coming down. Barometer 29.49 & falling.

  13. W7ENK says:

    FROPA approacheth…

  14. Marcustheweathernut says:

    Ok ok……… What’s Sundays wind event looking like????

  15. Marcustheweathernut says:

    Raining very hard but wind died??

  16. matthew says:

    Winds just collapsed to around 20-25 mph. Wasn’t as strong as I thought it would be for the Oregon coast.

  17. Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL in Hillsboro says:

    As of right now, Hillsboro should be well over the record rainfall mark of 3.68″ for September from 1945.

    Lots more weather to come before Sept ends.

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