A Stormy Afternoon; Wetter 7 Day Forecast Too

3:45pm Tuesday…

Action is picking up with some real heavy downpours, even some hail reported here and there.  You can see from the latest radar image that we are inbetween two intense lines of showers here in the metro area.

KPTV_Default

The line coming over the Coast Range will be here for the evening commute…expect some very heavy downpours and possible hail or thunder too.

Wednesday will be much calmer with just lighter pop-up showers, especially the 2nd half of the day and especially south of the metro area.

BIG change to the 7 Day forecast today.  It started with the ECMWF last night forecasting a far weaker upper-level ridge over us and farther east for the weekend.  Then the 12z ECMWF reaffirmed a good soaking beginning Friday evening and continuing through Tuesday:

ECMWF_Rain_12z

The 12z/18z NAM agree, but the GFS is much slower moving precipitation in, keeping just about all the rain for Sunday and beyond.  We’ll see which one ends up correct, but the screaming message is that dry weather will only be in our area for 1-2 days (Thursday-Friday), maybe 3 days max, before wet weather returns.

Enjoy the downpours and weather action the rest of the afternoon & evening!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

 

92 Responses to A Stormy Afternoon; Wetter 7 Day Forecast Too

  1. W7ENK says:

    FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED NEAR ALBANY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    1259 PM PDT WED SEP 25 2013

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/12468499

  2. Tim says:

    We have had a fairly wet september in Trout Lake already. Getting close to 2″. For more Trout Lake WA wx check this website: http://www.deardenweather.com/

  3. W7ENK says:

    So, what’s this I’m hearing about the remnants of a typhoon getting swept into the jet and entraining head-long into the PNW next week?

    Didn’t that happen in October 1962, also? Could be a record setter, or at least notable mention… Will be interesting to see how this evolves.

  4. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    First snow of the season at Crater Lake this morning:

    http://www.craterlakelodges.com/webcam/

    It’s a winter wonderland up there!

  5. JJ78259 says:

    Finished over seeding the Bermuda lawn with rye grass here in San Antonio should be able to mow all year long now! Still 95 and sunny today.

  6. Jethro says:

    06z GFS continuing the 00z’s soggy trend for Sunday/Monday, although it aims brunt of moisture at YVR instead of PDX.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER

  7. schmit44 says:

    9/24/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:69 at EW3367 Coos Bay( 98 ft)
    Low: 56 at John Day River B(305 ft) & CW8449 Charlesto(322 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:35 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 27 at HOWARD Mt Howard (8150 ft ) & Rim (7050 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 25 degrees
    JOHN DAY RIVER N (65/40 ) (3139 ft )
    EW2055 Prairie C (59/34) (3547 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.62″ at EW0059 Myrtle Po(174ft)
    1.59″ at YACHTS Yachats(82ft)
    1.53″ at DW4535 Cannon Be(23ft)

    • Neat stats, but really the point of my post is to thank you, Brian. You see folks, the avatar Brian has been using for months has been a provocation towards me. Take a look
      http://en.gravatar.com/schmit44….
      “#8 on Amazon” meant to poke at me or somehow ridicule me, ah, but I indeed was #8 on Amazon’s best sellers list. Take a look….

      Yep, there it is. So, Brian thank you for your shameless support of my music even when you didn’t know you were. You’re a real champion.

    • JJ78259 says:

      I was always wondering what that #8 thing was about

    • W7ENK says:

      Wow, paranoid much? o_O

      Brian, thank you again for posting these daily extremes. I really enjoy knowing what’s going on outside The Dome! 😀

    • schmit44 says:

      Thanks for hi-jacking my weather relevant thread with your personal drama Rob. BTW great job using the photoshop there on that tinypic image. Do you really think people believe you are #8 on amazon? You need to stop causing trouble here on Mark’s blog. You already have set the record for the most “mods” ever by a single person. Congrats!!

    • Are you kidding me? Maybe ask on any of the Car Audio groups I am in, am promoted and supported by. I wouldn’t ever waste my time photoshopping something, unlike yourself who is a master of that. You really are full of yourself, Brian, I meant DJR.

    • I also supposed I made this up too, right? I photoshopped this as well? #4 out of 58,113 songs.


      But nah, that can’t be so, right? I mean, it isn’t like I could ever be “good” at anything. Jealously doesn’t suit you very well.

    • I am getting real tired of people thinking the can provoke me any means necessary, an avatar pic, comments, whatever, but then lie about it, or call me a liar. Aside from your weather programs you have nothing to offer anyone and everyone knows this. I think it’s real cute how Erik takes up for you. Do you guys gets off on each other doing that? I mean the same routine like usual. You must.

    • schmit44 says:

      Those links you posted don’t work. They say “Remote Linking Disabled” when I click on them. Oh well if I could see them it would be just more photoshopped things. Methinks the low initialized in the wrong place.

    • JJ78259 says:

      and I thought updates about San Antonio…… WoW!

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Geez guys, leave Rob alone. He has alot more knowledge than anyone on here except for Mark and since winter is coming id like his input for the winter. Just sayin

    • W7ENK says:

      “He has alot more knowledge than anyone on here…”

      Would you please quantify that? I don’t believe Mr. Grimes has any sort of formal (I said FORMAL) training or education in meteorology or atmospheric sciences, however I DO know for a fact that several others here do. I’m just trying to figure out which hole your hot air is leaking from, Mat. Help a guy out and elaborate?

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Lets not (elaborate).

    • jakeinthevalley says:

      Oh yeah, but….
      Oh yeah, well….
      Oh yeah, but….
      Oh yeah, well….
      Oh yeah, but….
      Oh yeah, well….

      buncha’ fricken fourth graders..sheesh

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Erik, once again I wasn’t talking to you. I’m not even going to go there with you. Waste of time. The only thing I’m gonna say is its 53 and partly cloudy here in Redmond outside of the dome, fortunately. Oh, and can’t wait for the winter weather meeting next month. I’ll be there

    • W7ENK says:

      You may not have been talking to me, Mat, but I was talking to you.

      Please justify your statement: “(Rob) has alot [sic.] more knowledge than anyone on here…”

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Erik quit scaring me. You really don’t want to do this. Get a life and find a girl. Trekky nerd I’m sure. Just so you know Rob knows tons more than you so next time you want to try and call someone out do it with someone that doesn’t have a clue about weather. Done talking with you. Just be at the meeting next month please

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Do any of you actually go back and read how stupid most of your responses sound/look? Like a bunch of middle school bullies. And I can’t believe most/all of you are middle-age men! Geez…

      Take your issues (from elsewhere) somewhere else.

    • jr503pdx says:

      I like turtles!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I like ducks.

    • JJ 78259 says:

      That is funny!

    • High Desert Mat says:

      +1 Mark

    • Why did the drama end up on a temperature summary anyway?

    • JJ 78259 says:

      It is about the Amazon level icon, lost in the shuffle

  8. Not sure I’m ready for the steady Freddie…..

  9. vinnybob says:

    What happened to all the 70 degree days in the 7 day? Back to rain for the next 9 months.

  10. BoringOregon says:

    Any body, need to take a shower just go out side !?!?

  11. Too funny. Two weathermen from competing stations get in fistfight over a forecast. Publicity stunt? Maybe.
    http://www.rockcitytimes.com/local-weathermen-arrested-fight-breaks-rain-chances-weekend/

  12. snodaze says:

    Mark N… What’s wrong with the GFS in your opinion? — Just wondering… — Maybe a better question should be… Exactly how are GFS and ECMWF different?

  13. brrr. down to 50F at 7pm. feels cold. feels like fall.

  14. The wettest September at my location was in 1971 with 7.28″ of rain. At 5.94″ now, if the EURO verifies we’ll beat it.

  15. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    My high temp today struggled to reach 57.8° – my first sub-60° high temp in quite a while.
    I’m disappointed in the change to the 7-day forecast. I wanted a return to warmer & drier conditions, not more cool & wet. I hope we see a few more warm, sunny days before the floodgates open in late October. Thankfully, daylight savings time lasts until November 3rd this year.

  16. Had a huge lightning strike in Orchards while driving through. I’m thinking the lightning forked and hit simultaneously because, of the three strikes, there was only one loud rumble of thunder.

    Also had a 2.57″/hour rainfall rate at 5:48 PM.

  17. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Any chance for action as the sun goes down or is this mainly a daytime deal?

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
      238 PM PDT TUE SEP 24 2013

      AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AND USHER IN COOLER AIR INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST…INSTIGATING THUNDERSTORMS
      AND COLD CORE FUNNELS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

  18. W7ENK says:

    Waiting for a break in these bands of showers to I can ride home. Looks like I might get one here in another 45 minutes or so…?

    I’m less than pleased with this change to the weekend forecast. I hope it stays dry in Central Oregon!! >_<

  19. Jethro says:

    I guess it really is time to put away the patio furniture… Which is currently strewn across the lawn. (sorry, no pics. But it really did happen) 😎

  20. BoringOregon says:

    It’s, snowing up at timberline lodge !!

  21. runrain says:

    Quite a squall line approaching Hillsboro. Looked really strong at first but then the Dome saw it and, well, you know the drill.

  22. Buddy says:

    How come KPTV weather forecast is turning more negative? Always shows rain now.

  23. pappoose in scappoose says:

    LOOK!

  24. bgb41 says:

    I just updated my PDX weather application. Feel free to download and use it for free. This version expires Dec 1 2013. Here is the link to the file.
    You must unzip and extract the setup file to your computer to set it up

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/7yu71o9ykzxjpfg/Meteostar%20Extracted%20Data%20Setup%204.0.zip

  25. pappoose in scappoose says:

    They’re out there, wandering about!

  26. bgb41 says:

    September 2013 rainfall now stands at 4.27″ @ Battle Ground Lake

    Here are the past years rainfall:
    2012: 0.09″
    2011: 1.44″
    2010: 3.95″
    2009: 2.16″
    2008: 0.37″
    2007: 2.43″
    2006: 1.35″

    Average: 2.01″

  27. Yay, more rain, thanks! 🙂

  28. yetanotherguy says:

    First? Gotta love fall weather and the associated model to model changes

  29. Lynn says:

    Loving it!! I know, I’m weird.

  30. marinersfan85 says:

    Had .42″ fall in about an hour earlier today. In Sherwood. Another round looks to be getting ready. Very heavy rain.

  31. jr503pdx says:

    OH MY!

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