A Stormy Afternoon; Wetter 7 Day Forecast Too

September 24, 2013

3:45pm Tuesday…

Action is picking up with some real heavy downpours, even some hail reported here and there.  You can see from the latest radar image that we are inbetween two intense lines of showers here in the metro area.

KPTV_Default

The line coming over the Coast Range will be here for the evening commute…expect some very heavy downpours and possible hail or thunder too.

Wednesday will be much calmer with just lighter pop-up showers, especially the 2nd half of the day and especially south of the metro area.

BIG change to the 7 Day forecast today.  It started with the ECMWF last night forecasting a far weaker upper-level ridge over us and farther east for the weekend.  Then the 12z ECMWF reaffirmed a good soaking beginning Friday evening and continuing through Tuesday:

ECMWF_Rain_12z

The 12z/18z NAM agree, but the GFS is much slower moving precipitation in, keeping just about all the rain for Sunday and beyond.  We’ll see which one ends up correct, but the screaming message is that dry weather will only be in our area for 1-2 days (Thursday-Friday), maybe 3 days max, before wet weather returns.

Enjoy the downpours and weather action the rest of the afternoon & evening!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen