Rain Moving In This Evening; Stormy Sunday Afternoon

Friday 5pm…

Right on schedule, rain is arriving in the western valleys of Oregon and Washington this evening.  It’s not real impressive, but a nice line of moderate rain running right up I-5 right now.  No thunder so far and at best we’ll just see an embedded flash of lightning or rumble.

Some good news for the weekend, models have backed off on the showers a bit for tomorrow.  It probably won’t be a dry day, but showers might take a while (after noon) to get going and may not be too heavy even then.  So there IS a chance for some dry weather tomorrow.

No change for Sunday

Quite a stormy day for late September, especially at the Coast.  A strong cold front moves inland during the afternoon.  Plenty of moderate to heavy rain for at least 3-5 hours means a very wet afternoon west of the Cascades (and in the Cascades too I suppose).  Gradients and models suggest wind gusts to 60+ mph out at the Coast  midday and early afternoon.  Here in the valley strongest wind should be south of the Portland metro area and westside…30-35 mph is possible in the afternoon.

Beyond Sunday, mainly cool/cold showers Monday through Wednesday as a chilly October-like upper level trough sits overhead.  Snow level should fall to around 5,000′, maybe even a bit lower both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.  Check out the ECMWF ensemble chart…note how far below normal temps are from Monday through Thursday.  Also note hints of more seasonal (warmer) weather returning in the last day or two of the month.

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

57 Responses to Rain Moving In This Evening; Stormy Sunday Afternoon

  1. vernonia1 says:

    friend just posted this on FB …………………….uN-BELIEVABLE i JUST LOOKED OUTSIDE AND IT IS SNOWING HERE IN THE couv!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  2. W7ENK says:

    Power bump in “The Core” of downtown Portland, trees down SW 4th & Main.

    Mark, email me if you’d like higher res photos than these for a FOX 12 Weather Exclusive! 😆

  3. Marcus the weather nut says:

    Of course the bulk of the moisture heading in north of the Pdx area ugh!!!! At least we are getting some wind gust:)

  4. Jeff Raetz says:

    Power went out for 5 seconds here inside the dome, oak grove

  5. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Winds really picking up here at home in the last 15 minutes, gusts SE21 ahead of the front. Lots of fir needles/small branches down, cones pelting my roof… a sure sign of Fall.

  6. JJ 78259 says:

    This past Thursday and Friday brought San Antonio 5 inches of rain from the left over hurricane moisture from Mexico. I guess from what our local weather guys are saying this was first time in 4 years we have had late summer rain. It also kicks off our second growing season all of my plants even trees are flowering like it is spring all over again. So I planted vegetables again in a garden spot I made in the back yard. It looks to be mid 80’s to low 90’s for the next 10 days and low humidity as the fall weather returns. Beautiful sunrise in clear blue skies this morning.

    • archangelmichael2 says:

      Ahhhhhhhh perfect weather. Wish we had that this summer instead of the crappy humidity.

      Glad you’re plants are doing good like it’s spring again. Just like Chubby Checker’s song. “Let’s Limbo some more. Let’s Limbo some more. Let’s hit the floor like we did before let’s limbo some more!

    • Lurkyloo says:

      You must be having a, “Toto, I don’t think we’re in Kansas anymore” moment with trees flowering in late Sept.?

    • JJ 78259 says:

      You are correct about fruit trees but there are many flowering trees that would be considered a 20 ft high bushes in Oregon going crazy with color in beautiful 86 degree sunshine!

  7. schmit44 says:

    9/21/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:78 at JOHN DAY RIVER A( 400 ft)
    Low: 59 at BLALOK(277 ft) & Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & John Day River B(305 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft) & NEWPRT Cape Foul(1024 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:41 at Lagoon(6370 ft)
    Low: 28 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 28 degrees
    COLGATE (66/38 ) (3231 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.70″ at EW0059 Myrtle Po(174ft)
    1.42″ at EW3367 Coos Bay(98ft)
    1.41″ at AGNESS2(247ft)
    1.36″ at MERLIN SEED ORCH(1144ft)
    1.30″ at BROOKINGS(79ft)
    1.27″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)

  8. archangelmichael2 says:

    What I mean is the new site has it all in a map where you can adjust the timeline via a slider to see all webcams from a certain time period and there were plenty mainly from 2008 onwards.

    Now the webcams don’t even show up for the present day when highlighted. You have to use their old site to view any webcams whatsoever that doesn’t have the map style.

  9. archangelmichael2 says:

    Does anybody know why Weather Underground webcams are failed?

    I enjoy looking at past history to see pictures of snow like in the Snow Belt areas of the North East but recently their history is down. You can’t even go back to last month to see anything.

  10. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    5 seconds of light hail…

    OMG! IT IS THE END OF TIMES! OR IS IT THE BEST OF TIMES?!

    P.S.:
    With the Pacific storm season getting ready and the first one heading our way tomorrow… I want to start my observation things with the peak wind gusts like I used to do years ago. This year, I want to use 10 cities from west of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington… This is my list right now and I would absolutely enjoy getting some sort of opinions on the selection of cities I chose.

    Oregon:
    Astoria
    Newport
    North Bend
    Eugene
    Corvallis
    Salem
    McMinnville
    Portland
    Hillsboro
    Scappoose

    Washington:
    Hoquiam
    Quilliyute
    Friday Harbor
    Bellingham
    Everett
    Seattle
    Vancouver
    Kelso/Longview
    Olympia
    Shelton

    I personally believe this is a good spread… But perhaps it’s a bit too crowded? Should I go down to 8 cities? Are there any other ones I should consider? What about east of the Cascades? Should those cities be part of the average or not? Should I treat them separately or only bring them up if unusually strong southerly winds kick in?

  11. runrain says:

    Okay I know you don’t want to hear this, but sitting at the tailgater outside Qualcomm in San Diego before the Beaver game, 75 and sunny, lite breeze and just absolutely beautiful.

  12. David B. says:

    Two weekends ago I decided to hike the DaKlagwats (aka Mt. Pugh, elevation 7,201′) trail in the North Cascades of Washington, figuring it might be one of the last weekends this season to do it. I sort of resented how it wasn’t a 100% clear day at the time, but in hindsight my hunch about it being the last good chance on a weekend is looking more and more correct.

    It’s not the sort of trail one wants to be on in any other than dry conditions:

  13. paulbeugene says:

    Looking at models for the upcoming week, Wednesday and Thursday mornings look exceeding cool for this time of the year.

    The coldest example of a late September trough over NW USA with cold nighttime temps is 1972 September, when it got down to 26 degrees in Salem.

    500mb heights and 850mb temps do not quite approach the Sep 72 benchmark, but compare favorably with other examples in which temps in the Willamette Valley got down in the low 30s.

    That being said….

    F R O S T

    is likely Wednesday and Thursday mornings, with temps in EUG and SLE down to 31-34 range. PDX probably has chance even to break 40F.

    • paulbeugene says:

      Interesting to note that is 16 days after 90F peak earlier this month. There is historical precedent of cold temps two weeks after warm/hot spells in Sept.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Prepare yourselves!

    • SW says:

      Hi Paul,

      Just curious, What’s your take on the winters of 49,50. I know it’s impossible to predict but is that type of winter possible ever again in your mind? Predicting winter has proven impossible, even for the experts. It is fun to take a stab (guess) at it.

    • paulbeugene says:

      Will the winter of 2013-14 ever happen again? Will have to wait and see. It has not even happened yet.

  14. Two cool nights, and now 58 for a low this morning…good lord.

  15. schmit44 says:

    9/20/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:88 at CRN SITE AT JOHN(2214 ft) & CW2286 Monument(2021 ft) & CW4650 Pendleton(1152 ft) & GRANDE RONDE RIV(1594 ft)
    Low: 59 at Pendleton Agricu(1487 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:53 at Mary’s Peak(4137 ft)
    Low: 19 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 53 degrees
    Burns Municipal (83/30 ) (4144 ft )
    RED BUTTE (82/29) (4460 ft)
    CW1403 Paulina (81/28) (3688 ft)
    Beatty (75/22) (4320 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.62″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    1.38″ at AGNESS2(247ft)
    0.97″ at CALVERT PEAK(3822ft)
    0.97″ at BROOKINGS(79ft)
    0.94″ at BALD KNOB(3630ft)
    0.91″ at Brookings Airpor(459ft)
    0.91″ at FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543ft)

  16. Mikey says:

    The new 00z GEM at hour 192. Move that thing down a bit and you got an October snowstorm for the valleys!

  17. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Beware! The Donkeys will be kicking tomorrow!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    906 PM PDT FRI SEP 20 2013

    EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY SATURDAY….BUT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SUN BREAKS IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. SNOW LEVELS WILL
    LOWER TO NEAR 6-6.5KFT SATURDAY. EXPECT WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT THAT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE SOME KICK TO THEM OFFSHORE AND INLAND.

  18. .20″ today in the mid Willamette Valley. Now almost 4″ so far this month. Average for Albany is around 1.4″ for the entire month of Sept…..

  19. Extremely weak front. Models over did that one. Tis the season of busts and teases!!

  20. Mikey says:

    Not a bust, the 18z GFS showed the it falling apart and barely any precip as it crossed over the coast range. I am very surprised that Mark called for rain when the models said otherwise.

  21. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    What a disappointing bust. Hoping Sunday is more fruitful.

  22. Hal in Aims says:

    90 second shower has passed……awaiting the arrival of the Sunday event,,,,,

  23. Marcus the weather nut says:

    And the dome holds strong!!!!!

  24. BoringOregon says:

    Stormy day = weather bust !!!!

  25. Hal in Aims says:

    if this thing continues to fall apart…..don’t think I’ll get much more than a few sprinkles here….we’ll see….

  26. W7ENK says:

    Not raining in downtown yet… heading home on the bike now.

    The rain will probably start in 3… 2… 1…

  27. Lurkyloo says:

    You do be. Let yourself in, eh?

  28. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Who’s on first?

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