ECMWF Weekly Maps

Last night’s run of the ECMWF…500mb height anomaly for the next 4 weeks:  Big negative anomaly all of next week, then a bit weaker.  After week two the negative spot shifts farther east.

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

20 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    n The analog years used to create this forecast were obtained by
    tracking and comparing a variety of indices over the past several
    years (see Forecasting Methods). Years in the “Cool Phase” of the
    Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were given priority.
    n 1981 replaced 2002, as an analog year used to create this month’s
    forecast update. The other analog years (1968 & 2007) remained
    unchanged. The forecast graphics reflect equal “weight” given to
    each of the top 3 analog years.
    n Important note – The top 3 analog years all had “extreme”
    weather events during their subsequent autumns and/or winters
    (strong storms with heavy snow and Arctic outbreaks – December
    1968 and January 1969; major windstorms – November 1981;
    widespread flooding – December 1981; “Great Coastal Gale” –
    December 2007). This historical guidance implies an increased
    threat of “extreme” weather events for this late-autumn and winter. This is a summary of the next three months (Oct-Dec 2013) from Pete Parsons latest 90 day outlook issued 9,19,2013. Apparently Pete thinks we are in for a spectacular Winter. Comments anyone? Peace.

  2. Speaking of ECMWF…have you seen the end of this run???

    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html

    Is this the year we get a solid early fall death ridge? (Early fall = mid-September through mid-October)

  3. W7ENK says:

    Rode my bike in to work this morning knowing full well it would be a wet ride home, but now it looks like the rain may hold off a bit? I’d be just fine with that. It wouldn’t bother me one bit if the rain waited until around 8 or so before moving into PDX Metro. That way, I could get home, shower, change and BBQ dinner, all without getting rained on!

    I guess this blasted dome does have an upside, afterall… 😆

    • Lurkyloo says:

      I dunno, Erik. Looks to me like it’s not waiting until 8 … but good luck with all those happy Friday plans!

      Oh, and don’t go making friends with the dome. It will only lead you to the Dark Side.

  4. paulbeugene says:

    Decent looking front making its way onshore OR/WA coast. I suspect S Puget Sound, SW WA might have a bit of convection/t-storm potential with this, nothing spectacular though.
    Next week, looks like a decent trough over west coast of lower 48 with clear nights around mid-latter part of week with lows getting into the upper 30s in Eugene/Corvallis/Salem a possibility but I don’t think frost will happen.
    Beyond that it seems models are trending toward late Sept/early Oct warm spell. I doubt lows will be in the 60s then with the nights being too long/clear skies, etc.

  5. schmit44 says:

    9/19/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:88 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 61 at CW2654 Corbett(1050 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:50 at MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 18 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 55 degrees
    Beatty (78/23 ) (4320 ft )

  6. Marcus the weather nut says:

    Nice looking cold front for this time of year…….. I’m getting excited for this winter love it. Should be a good winter for those of us outside the dome!!!! Sorry, Eric 🙂

  7. Lurkyloo says:

    We all know how Mark stands behind his big curtain and manipulates the weather — just like the Wizard of Oz. He has the ability to control the Dome as well. BTW I don’t think I’m allowed to comment on your post because Poose didn’t let you in yet.

  8. Mark, it’s obviously your cold bias that’s causing the weather to make a turn for the worse. I blame you.

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