Cooler Today, Two More Summery Days

PLOT_Highs_Metro

Quite a change today…the marine air surged inland overnight, giving us low clouds and much cooler temps.  We dropped from 95 yesterday to 82 today.

Tomorrow the marine layer should be a little thinner, so I boosted the high temp a few degrees.

Saturday and Sunday are real interesting.  Offshore flow briefly develops Saturday afternoon and night.  That should push temps up to 90 or a little above with 850mb temps jumping up to +20 or so.  That will probably be our last 90 degree day of the season.  Then on Sunday a fast-moving upper level trough swings through with MUCH cooler air.   850mb temps go from +21 Sunday morning to +6 24 hours later!  Thus we’ll be going from summer heat to fall “chill” pretty quickly.  It should be invigorating!  You can see the dramatic drop in the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

The rest of next week will be dominated by cooler than average weather and showers at times.   By the way, here are the 4 weekly ECMWF 500mb height ensemble maps from last nights’ run:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

140 Responses to Cooler Today, Two More Summery Days

  1. Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL in Hillsboro says:

    .36″ of rain here in about 20 minutes this afternoon. Already well above my September average, and looking at the 12z GFS it looks very wet the next 10+ days with maybe a few dry days thrown in as Boydo mentioned.

    Euro has a trough as well.

  2. For the next ten days GFS and ECMWF keep us in a trough in all but a couple days this week. Looks really fallish….

  3. JJ78259 says:

    Headed down to Corpus Christie at 6 am this morning for a tradeshow about 50 miles away I started to see the outer rain bands of hurricane Ingrid. 20 miles out was in a hard down pour when I got to the Radisson hotel behind the USS Liberty the storm had the water in the bay lapping at the patio of the hotel 3 ft higher than the normal high tide. Very stormy thunder and lightning and side ways rain! Very cool,

  4. W7ENK says:

    Just got a report from a friend of a tornado on the ground yesterday between Moses Lake and Ritzville, WA. He and his buddy are on a motorcycle trip from Seattle to Central Ohio to visit family, they left late yesterday. He said the wind whipped up with dust all of a sudden, they looked to the South and saw the twister coming, so they took shelter on the floor of a rest area bathroom with several other people until it went calm outside. Pretty intense!!

  5. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Taken by June Grønseth on September 13, 2013 @ Laukvik, Lofoten,Norway
    This image is a panoramic of 6 images.

  6. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Heard a clap around 8 am, then again around 10 am. Was up in Seattle when we had the first delay for lightning in Seattle history. It was intense. That’s about all I can say. No other way to describe it

  7. schmit44 says:

    9/15/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:102 at EW1140 Umatilla( 364 ft)
    Low: 70 at JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:55 at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183 ft)
    Low: 33 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 45 degrees
    NORTH FORK JOHN (100/55 ) (1975 ft )
    CW9027 Ukiah (90/45) (3415 ft)
    Sand Creek (US 9 (80/35) (4525 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.21″ at HERMISTON(550ft)
    1.02″ at DW0462 Umatilla(390ft)
    0.55″ at NORTH FORK MALHE(3270ft)

  8. WEATHERDAN says:

    Had a couple of claps of thunder early this morning. That makes 4 thunderstorms in Salem this Summer. 2 were minor with only a couple flashes of lightning, or claps of thunder. 2 were major storms with hundreds of flashes of lightning. Except for not hitting 100 degrees it was a picture perfect summer. Record warm Summer. Maximum and Minimum combined. Record number of nights with lows above 60. Combine that with the big chill last January ( big temperature inversion ). 6 days with highs 28-32 degrees 14 days in a row with highs only in the 30,s, and you have a very satisfying year so far down here. If we have a big snow storm down here in November or December it will be a perfect end to a perfect year. Hope to see you at the annual ” What will weather be like this winter ” conference in October. The last four winters have all been big busts. The odds increase every Winter that we will have a big snowstorm if the previous Winter was a shutout. Also our coldest and snowiest Winters tend to come in La Nada Winters. Of course that is no guarentee that this will be the Winter for a big snow or Arctic outbreak. Ponder this as well. If our Summers are getting warmer then it is almost certain that our Winters are as well. Now I do have one gripe for all the tv mets in Portland and this includes you Mark. Quit microcasting. By that I mean remember the rest of us who live outside the Portland area. You call yourself Fox 12 Oregon. Yet you want to give the forecast for every little suburb in Portland and seem to forget about Burns or Medford or Coos Bay. They used to forecast for the whole state, not just Portland. Same with maximums and minimums. Let us see the big picture, not just a small part of it. I really don,t care that Gresham will be 85 and Boring 84 and Happy Valley 86. Most of the people that actually watch these weathecasts understand that you can,t predict down to a one ore even two degree variance over a metro area. And does it really matter. If you predict 87 for Salem and it only gets to 86 is that a busted forecast? No of course not. Show us the winds aloft or pressure field. Let us know why it will rain tomorrow. While the forecasts are more accurate these days, and the graphics are a whole lot better I still enjoyed the old time weathercasts by Jack Capell and Bob Lynott a lot better. Now I have the greatest respect for Mark and a couple of the the other tv mets in Portland. And maybe the producers on your news show are the ones calling all the shots. But if not then could you please let us know a little more why and a little less what. You do this so well on your weather blog. How about a little on the tv. Peace.

    • archangelmichael2 says:

      Thank you! I would LOVE to see 850MB charts aired on TV with a basic explanation of major ridges and troughs to bring in the BIG picture.

      And PLEASE show the jet stream as well as a history of it the last week to show a trend if it’s moving north/south or zonal.

      . Please oh please!

    • archangelmichael2 says:

      If you can only do one Mark then please show/air which ever you think will be easiest for the public to understand.

  9. W7ENK says:

    The dome prevails, yet again. Although shrunken greatly, it’s still centered firmly over Milwaukie…

    I only heard two claps of thunder, both in the distance, one to the South and one across the W to NW. Overall, pretty lame, and definitely not worth the hype. 😦

    • W7ENK says:

      Oh, and EFF Washington State!! You guys suck!!! >_<

    • David B. says:

      Three thunderstorms today (9AM, 5PM, 7PM) on Bainbridge Island west of Seattle. Neener, neener. 🙂

      OK, none were particularly huge, and Nos. 1 and 2 were downright wimpy, but I can’t resist a little friendly rubbing it in.

    • David B. says:

      My bad — four thunderstorms, actually, with No. 4 being the best. Lost count.

    • W7ENK says:

      Makin’ me cry, man… 😥

      All I have to say is, Mother Nature owes us BIG TIME down here!!! We had better get something worthwhile this winter. 5 winters in a row without an appreciable snowfall? That couldn’t possibly happen…

      I’m really beginning to loathe this infuriating place…

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I didn’t even know there were thunderstorms until I got home from church about 1pm and saw all the strikes on the westside. Didn’t hear anything in Troutdale or Gresham midday. It drizzled or showered about half the day here. Amazing how that drizzle/fog/low clouds hides the little “pre-season” burn pile.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I really like it when I lose count!

    • Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL in Hillsboro says:

      I was there for the 3pm t-storm in Seattle.

      Unfortunately, that means I missed the one here this morning.

      My son is at UW at the moment and said it sounded like the campus was being blown apart around 6pm today.

    • David B. says:

      I do not think I have seen this many thunderstorms in a single day since I lived in New Mexico a loooong time ago, where that would happen on a good day in the monsoon season.

      Truth be told, the first two today were so wimpy they barely qualified as thunderstorms. One or two claps of thunder each and a brief burst of rain.

      What was most notable is that we never lost our marine stratus layer all day. It was so odd going from a routine foggy/drizzly morning to thunderclaps and sudden rain. I’ve never experienced the marine stratus + thunder combination before.

  10. Hal in Aims says:

    is it time to add the”W7 dome” to another of the northwest’s micro climates?

    • archangelmichael2 says:

      Doesn’t San Francisco have like 10 different micro climates due to all the hills which divert rainfall and fog around to various spots?

      Despite what the averages look like San Francisco is either feast or famine in rainfalls and occasionally even had a few small snowfalls in the city in the later 1800s especially up in the hills from 500 feet up. (Cold core convection?)

  11. Stormy sunday nothing overly exciting few thunderstorms hawks game delayed for a hr. Football turning into a bunch of wussies. Come on play the game regardless of the weather that’s what makes football one of the greatest sports ever.

  12. vernonia1 says:

    ..A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM PDT
    FOR WALLA WALLA…NORTHEASTERN UMATILLA…FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN
    BENTON COUNTIES…

    AT 636 PM PDT…THE PUBLIC REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
    THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES
    NORTHWEST OF BENTON CITY TO ADAMS…OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15
    MILES NORTHEAST OF SUNNYSIDE TO 13 MILES EAST OF PENDLETON…MOVING
    NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. FOR
    YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

    THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS
    A LARGE AREA. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER
    NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! this was just posted on TWC

  13. BoringOregon says:

    Haha, they just held up the, seahawks game for lightning and bad weather !!

  14. David B. says:

    More rumbling, getting louder. And radar shows lots of nice pretty reds and oranges headed my way! Looks like Thunderstorm No. 3 is going to be the best one of the day. Nos. 1 and 2 were typical lame PNW one-or-two-thunderclaps-and-its-over affairs.

    Maybe I shouldn’t post that. Thunderstorms have had a bad habit of fizzling before they get to me this summer.

  15. Marcus the weather nut says:

    Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  16. BoringOregon says:

    Just some heavy rain out here?

  17. Marcus the weather nut says:

    Boom boom here in LC!!!!

  18. Hal in Aims says:

    zzzzzzzz…

  19. geo says:

    All is quiet here in sw Gresham.

  20. Bob Bales says:

    Intermittent thunder in Cedar Hills for about the last 20 minutes. Started just after I got back from church. No rain. Radar shows two cells — one that passed to the northwest, another just to the east.

    A pity I didn’t quite get my outdoor work done yesterday.

%d bloggers like this: